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Author: goruck One star, 50 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 5774  
Subject: a little more on abaralex Date: 5/12/1999 9:49 PM
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okay guys, here is a little more info on the previous topic.....

first let me place this link that will become relevant:

http://www.zeneca.com/annualrep/7.htm

now a cut from a previous post:

Use your favorite search engine. In this case, type in 'prostate cancer' and scroll through postings from legitimate sources until you find out what you want.

I just did so and learned that in 1990 there were 22.7 new cases per 100,000 men (it dramatically increases after age 67 or so). This amounts to over 30,000 potential new U.S. customers per year, besides those previously diagnosed. And then there is the world market to consider.

There is definitely a market for this drug.

.......

the above was written by vrinda.
the subject of my post is figuring out the potential market for abarelix....

important to note is that when we have 22.7 new cases as the incidence, many of these are localized disease and they will never need a drug to treat metastatic disease...many of these men get treated with radiation or surgery. Only when there is spread of disease is a drug such as abarilex needed (sorry i never remember how to spell it...i will abbrev w/ abx.) so sorry vrinda, you are on target, but the above assessment would be a little too agressive and it would mean that all men with prostate cancer will die of the disease and need abx, and this is not the case. But, you are providing us with accurate and needed info!

so a good thing to look at is what market do the competitors have...the link i posted above is to zeneca pharm home page...they have listed their 1998 sales for the combo therapy that would be supplanted by a drug such as abx...look at it yourselves, but to summarize, they note that their sales of zoladex were 377 swiss marks a year and casodex was 147 million swiss marks a year....the exchange rate is 1.62 dollars to a swiss mark(i think that is the funky symbol...they give you the exchange rate on their home page)...so this means their sales were 848 million dollars worldwide....that actually is pretty good!.
I couldn't begin to tell you what abx will do to the market, but people smarter than me believe it will be the best therapy for metastatic prostate cancer, and it can be used for endometriosis and i personally believe it can have infertility uses also.

in order to truly come up with the theoretical market share we are after, we would need to also figure out sales of other competitors...such as nilandrone, lupron, des, and orchiectomy (yes virginia, castration is the most common treatment of prostate cancer that has spread).

of course once we figure all this out, it doesn't mean the medical community will switch because a new treatment is marginally better. if the new drug is too expensive, who will pay for it? i don't know the answer to this question, but there is much solace to be obtained if a drug is going after a large potential market...from the brief bit of info i have provided, it looks like we do have a substantial market to go after. I would love for anyone to tell me if they agree with me and also to further (and one up) my work by figuring out how many men get diagnosed with stage d prostate cancer yearly (that describes spread to bones) and by figuring out sales of lupron yearly.

as usual, gallery comments are loved!

gb
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