A nice summary. In general I agree with your view, but am somewhat more optimistic. I retired from J&J in Feb of this year, after 24 years. I spent the last 10 doing business development for their OTC and specialty pharma areas. In my retirement planning I used a value of $75/share in 2013 (to value my options and RSUs). I still think that is pretty likely. By the way Value Line has much more optimistic projections in the $100 range for their 3-5 year target.

As you point out the consumer area is solid. High growth is not likely here but these brands have good staying power. J&J increased its international business very signficantly with the Pfizer acquisition. It continues to look ex-US for example with a recent important acquisition of the Dabao beauty/skin business in China earlier this year.

http://www.highbeam.com/doc/1G1-187961895.html

The Nicorette smoking cessation products not on your list also have good ex-US growth potential.

In terms of the Pharma pipeline you can get the list on the J&J website:

http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/JNJ/368072659x0x23920...

It is not as strong as I would like but the monoclonal antibody products from Centocor have good potential. (CNTO 1275, CNTO 148). Those NDAs are filed. The Centocor acquisition was one of J&J's best ever. J&J has been putting a lot of emphasis on dapoxetine for premature ejactulation, but the FDA rejected the NDA. I think that is filed in Europe. Tapentadol was recently approved as a new pain reliever:

http://www.investor.jnj.com/releaseDetail.cfm?ReleaseID=3502...

This is the type of product (e.g. like Ultram) that J&J typically does well with.

Clearly the loss of risperdal and Topamax will present challenges. J&J has a follow-on to Topamax called carisbamate (now in Phase 3). Topamax was originally developed as an anti-epileptic but in recent years the bulk of sales have been for migraine prevention. Carisbamate seems to work in both, but it is not clear to me if has any advantage over Topamax.

http://www.lifesciencesworld.com/news/view/90416

Telaprevir could be big but this area (HCV) has seen many dissapointmeents. J&J has ex-US rights.

I think pharma and device will see increasing cost pressures in the years to come. The next 2-3 years will be the most challenging for J&J in my view, but being a world leader in human healthcare is not a bad spot for the long term.

sw- former Director Science and Technology, Business Development, J&J