Message Font: Serif | Sans-Serif
 
UnThreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (11) | Ignore Thread Prev | Next
Author: stillwater9999 Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 19983  
Subject: Re: JNJ Date: 12/14/2008 10:13 PM
Post New | Post Reply | Reply Later | Create Poll . Report this Post | Recommend it!
Recommendations: 13
A nice summary. In general I agree with your view, but am somewhat more optimistic. I retired from J&J in Feb of this year, after 24 years. I spent the last 10 doing business development for their OTC and specialty pharma areas. In my retirement planning I used a value of $75/share in 2013 (to value my options and RSUs). I still think that is pretty likely. By the way Value Line has much more optimistic projections in the $100 range for their 3-5 year target.

As you point out the consumer area is solid. High growth is not likely here but these brands have good staying power. J&J increased its international business very signficantly with the Pfizer acquisition. It continues to look ex-US for example with a recent important acquisition of the Dabao beauty/skin business in China earlier this year.

http://www.highbeam.com/doc/1G1-187961895.html

The Nicorette smoking cessation products not on your list also have good ex-US growth potential.

In terms of the Pharma pipeline you can get the list on the J&J website:

http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/JNJ/368072659x0x23920...

It is not as strong as I would like but the monoclonal antibody products from Centocor have good potential. (CNTO 1275, CNTO 148). Those NDAs are filed. The Centocor acquisition was one of J&J's best ever. J&J has been putting a lot of emphasis on dapoxetine for premature ejactulation, but the FDA rejected the NDA. I think that is filed in Europe. Tapentadol was recently approved as a new pain reliever:

http://www.investor.jnj.com/releaseDetail.cfm?ReleaseID=3502...

This is the type of product (e.g. like Ultram) that J&J typically does well with.

Clearly the loss of risperdal and Topamax will present challenges. J&J has a follow-on to Topamax called carisbamate (now in Phase 3). Topamax was originally developed as an anti-epileptic but in recent years the bulk of sales have been for migraine prevention. Carisbamate seems to work in both, but it is not clear to me if has any advantage over Topamax.

http://www.lifesciencesworld.com/news/view/90416

Telaprevir could be big but this area (HCV) has seen many dissapointmeents. J&J has ex-US rights.

I think pharma and device will see increasing cost pressures in the years to come. The next 2-3 years will be the most challenging for J&J in my view, but being a world leader in human healthcare is not a bad spot for the long term.

sw- former Director Science and Technology, Business Development, J&J
Post New | Post Reply | Reply Later | Create Poll . Report this Post | Recommend it!
Print the post  
UnThreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (11) | Ignore Thread Prev | Next

Announcements

Pencils of Promise - Back to School Drive
"Pencils of Promise works with communities across the globe to build schools and create programs that provide education opportunities for children."
Managing Your Wealth
Our own TMFHockeypop from Rule Your Retirement fame on the TV show Managing Your Wealth.
When Life Gives You Lemons
We all have had hardships and made poor decisions. The important thing is how we respond and grow. Read the story of a Fool who started from nothing, and looks to gain everything.
What was Your Dumbest Investment?
Share it with us -- and learn from others' stories of flubs.
Community Home
Speak Your Mind, Start Your Blog, Rate Your Stocks

Community Team Fools - who are those TMF's?
Contact Us
Contact Customer Service and other Fool departments here.
Work for Fools?
Winner of the Washingtonian great places to work, and "#1 Media Company to Work For" (BusinessInsider 2011)! Have access to all of TMF's online and email products for FREE, and be paid for your contributions to TMF! Click the link and start your Fool career.
Advertisement