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A place I used to work leased all of its desktop PCs and they had a 3 year replacement cycle. I think they've extended that to 4 years and I'd be willing to bet they'll extend it to 5 in the not too distant future.

In my magic crystal ball (guaranteed to be 50% correct on yes/no questions), I see PC sales going flat while smart phones become as common as wristwatches. I can also see a lot of people buying a tablet instead of a second PC or even instead of a first PC. I see wireless computing devices built into home appliances, I see my boss coming to tell me to get back to work.
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