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Author: trudyKAS One star, 50 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 75794  
Subject: Re: Outflow of Retirement Funds Date: 2/7/1999 11:07 AM
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A very complex analysis, and one that is frequently being done by our economists.

The problem with a top of the head analysis on something involving demographics, it that the answers always appear so simple in prospective. They are therefore frequently, dead wrong.

Economic forecasts in which only one variable, i. e., demographics, is relevant, cannot be definitive since so many other variables, wage rates, savings rates, export and import rates, national debt, interest rates, government spending, consumer spending, employment rates, and myriad others have either greater or lesser effects on the outcome.

A major change in one significant variable, (and who can tell ten years in advance which variable will be most significant?), can change investor sentiment in the short run, but the long terms trends are far more predictable with a large sample ( e. g. the Census and labor statistics) and a considered longtudinal analysis.

Unexpected events which change long term trends also play a role.

We do get some good ideas on those long drive though. Some are worth looking into.
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