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Author: Wilsonsjulie Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 44599  
Subject: About Sentiment (rant and ramble) Date: 7/25/2002 11:41 PM
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Wanted to address what I saw as a sentiment shift yesterday, if only for the day and my comments on it.

Of course, handcuffs on a baddie is not going to change the entire market nor will people come out of the woodwork to plunk their money down to buy stuff in this market. And I also realize that technically, we were due for a correction as we have been waaaaay over sold.

But we've been oversold for Weeks now, with no relief. So why yesterday?

It is always the cumulative effect...all the little pieces in the market that create a shift. My comments about people who commit egregious fraud going to jail IS something that had not yet happened for anxious investors, until yesterday. Maybe no one was out buying like mad, but someone seemed to be covering shorts just in case and unlike many days/weeks before, there wasnt a pressing reason for joeaverageinvestor to be completely fed up with the market and make that call to finally sell the whole portfolio.

We simply saw some relief, is how i saw it... and I think it might actually hint at how touchy and oversold the market is right now....if there could just be consistent, good news, some leadership, some sign that the problems are being addressed, we might have a rally to make everyone forget being gloomy.

Another piece of news yesterday was the fact that congress and senate seemed to agree on a reform package. But today, there were a lot more questions about that.... how it would affect the market and the uncertaintly of having politicians interfere where they probably should not.

Most people do not watch the stock market or even fed policy or government policy very closely. They have a *sense* that something is wrong. That there are bad people who need to be punished. But it will take a long time before enough information trickles down from the news to actually get the general public informed. There will have to be a series of positive moves by the higher powers to make a sentiment shift. I am an optimist, and I am hoping that they will, in fact, make some strong and decisiive moves to clean this mess up. But, suspicion.says leaders have had many opportunities to wake up and address this mess and they'll continue to just do nothing much.

Many of us *used to be investors* cashed out a long time ago. But we've been watching things unfold closely. We are different than the average investor, but they are making some of the same decisions as we did..only months/years later.

I think the ltb&h crowd is hanging tough for the most part. We've heard over and over that patience pays off. That to have faith in the market and the investor will reap good rewards for retirement. It's truely sad to think that the system might be so broken and get neglected for too long that that axiom may no longer be something to count on. Optimism has been the hallmark of the american way. It's hard to watch it be tested so thoroughly in the absence of any true leadership ~j
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Author: bdixon619 Big red star, 1000 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 19572 of 44599
Subject: Re: About Sentiment (rant and ramble) Date: 7/25/2002 11:51 PM
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You wouldn't be refering to the current administration as "Leadership" would you? I think GWB's hope is the markets will correct by themselves. This has been his non-interventionist line for some time now. Hard to put that little smile on his face every morning when every night Lou Dobbs asks when the government is going to move against Enron.

Kudos to you and TM for keeping the lights turned up on this.

Bruce

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Author: JustThis Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 19573 of 44599
Subject: Re: About Sentiment (rant and ramble) Date: 7/26/2002 6:56 AM
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I think the sentiment shift is just a form of bi-polar disorder that is brought about by moon phases.

I actually am ignoring it for the most part for everyone except me. I was feeling a bit bi-polar and nervous myself and that is why I regrouped.

I work with the mentally ill and what is striking is how the range of perception and sentiment can shift in a moment. One word, one glance can change their attitude for days if not weeks.

However, that doesn't change thier overriding situation unless that shift causes an action that breaks them out of their cycle.

Does this sound familiar? It should.

My wife is a Behavioral Analyst and keeps extensive data concerning the autistic child she works with. She even uses a modified log chart to graph his progress and find optimal points for intervention when he begins to hit resistence on the charts.

Again, it sounds familiar because it the nature of all things to have these cycles and channels and shifts at the boundries.

So to clean up your rant, if I may.

1)the cycle is at a turning point. Some people say it was this day or that day but come on, can you be that precise? The turning points get jumpy.

2)The channel/trend has been one of the worst, if not the worst ever.

3)By my anecdotal view and the gallup poll I read, it is clear that the majority is in denial about the historic nature of this fall.

4)Many people are addicted to debt and consumed by consuming. This ranges from the innercity teenager to the heads of corporations with constests over who has the biggest yacht.

5)Many people and corporations are at crisis levels of stress.

So with those five points we hit a turn point.

The interventions were possibly in the currency markets which is a direct source. The indirect interventions are those you mentioned with regards to policy.

We know from history, that currency interventions last about 2-4 days. We also know from history that policy interventions don't work at all. They are too slow to react and implimented long after the problem.

These interventions, i have seen no others like better econ numbers or earnings, are not usefull. Neither are the better numbers.

They are not useful because all interventions are to effect the future, but the future is not the problem. The past is the problem.

It is the revelations of the past fraud, overstatements, bad management and waste that is killing the system.

I saw a story yesterday about a woman who was in jail for murder and escaped after 4 years of a 99 year term. They just found her 20some years later, married, kids, living in Ohio. She obviously is not a real great threat to society since she obviously has been clean for 20 years, but back she goes for the rest of her life because rules are rules.

I bring this up because we are not a society that can let things go and start over. We cannot drop the negativity, which is painfully obvious in politics. These restatements and handcuffed CEOs will continue for a while.

So after a long ramble, if the market seems to start to forget and let go of these past events, then there will be an investable/tradable shift. Until then these weak interventions will be blips.

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Author: jazbo Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 19577 of 44599
Subject: Re: About Sentiment (rant and ramble) Date: 7/26/2002 7:42 AM
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good rant econ
:-)

jaz


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Author: jnk96 Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 19589 of 44599
Subject: Re: About Sentiment (rant and ramble) Date: 7/26/2002 8:55 AM
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I work with the mentally ill

hey now!!!

well if the shoe fits (or the board)

;-)

jnk

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