Message Font: Serif | Sans-Serif
 
UnThreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (3) | Ignore Thread Prev | Next
Author: longvanilla One star, 50 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 8764  
Subject: All Kinds of Gorillas and their Metrics Date: 7/17/2000 2:03 PM
Post New | Post Reply | Reply Later | Create Poll . Report this Post | Recommend it!
Recommendations: 96
Usually I just lurk on this board and I want to thank all the great contributors here who add so much to our discussions.
I just completed my quarterly updates of my spreadsheets and I thought they might be useful to others. I included most of the metrics I follow to track the progress of these companies and the markets they are in. I also follow some other things with each 10Q and 10K report like inventory,DSO's,cash flows,etc. but I do not at present have those on my sheets.
I have found these types of spreadsheets very helpful in following companies and industries that I follow. I have been a growth type investor for years but as I have moved more and more into GG and GG candidate investing over the past year or two(even before I knew about the GG it appears) I feel this type of tracking is even more important. It is especially useful with royalty plays,baskets and early/pre-tornado investments to track how the company as well as the market is progressing. I have found that the one critical metric in these types of investments is revenue growth. If it slows there better be a damn good explanation because if not the party usually comes to an abrupt end. More leeway is given to established gorillas as substitution threat is the only real reason to sell but with royalty,basket, or pre-tornado plays its probably time to head for the door. We've seen it numerous times and it's not pretty.
Enough talk here's the lowdown.I hope the tables come out because its been a nightmare trying to line things up. Theres a way to download this info in Excel at the end of my post if anyone wants.

Company CSCO EMC ITWO SEBL

Last EPS Update 30-May 1-Jul 1-Jul 5-Jun
Value Line update 21-Jul 21-Jul 21-Jul 2-Sep
Earnings Date 8-Aug 21-Jul 20-Jul 21-Jul
Est. EPS 0.15 0.17 0.08 0.18

Price 66 75 141 182
EPS 0.46 0.53 0.25 0.63
Sales per Share 2.41 2.92 4.06 4.84
3-5 yr. Growth Est. 30%/28% 31%/37% TMF45% 43%/37%
Divisor Revs/Earnings 2.9/2.7 3./3.5 4.5/4.5 4.2/3.5

P/S 27 26 35 38
P/S in 4 yrs. 9.4 8.5 8 9
P/E 143 141 560 288
P/E in 4 yrs. 53 40 125 82
PSG(PS/Growth) 0.91 0.83 0.72 0.87
PEG 5.1 3.8 12.5 7.8
Shares Outstanding 7.1B 2.16B 159M 200M
Market Cap. 463B 167B 22B 36B

Q's Rev. Growth Y o Y
(%) most recent 55 23 65 115
(%) 55 56 57 115
(%) 50 70 58 95
(%) 50 72 60 95
Q's Rev. Growth Seq.
(%) most recent 13 -3 6 15
(%) 13 10 20 30
(%) 9 4 13 18
(%) 14 12 12 17
Annual Rev. Gro. YoY
(%) Est. 2000 48 27 42 85
(%) 1999 45 VL65 57 105
(%) 1998 32 35 80 230
E's Growth Rate Y o Y
(%) Est. 2000 40 38 105 50
(%) 1999 28 40 0 85
(%) 1998 28 43 57 87

Fully Dil. Share Inc. 5% 3% 8% 8%
Cash/Debt 0 2.8:1 1.6:1 3.0/1
Operate/Net Margin%
Est. 2000 32/21.3 31/19 16.5%/7% 23/13.4
1999 32.4/21 29/17.5 11.2/5 26/14.9
1998 35.8/22.1 29.8/20 13.5/7 24/14.2
1997 36.5/22 27/18 13.8/7 28.4/17
Flow Ratio
last Q 1 1.78 1.02 1.29
1999 0.9 2.5 1.02 1.56
1998 1.1 2.6 1.4 1
1997 1.23

-------------------------------------------------------
Company NTAP PMCS RMBS GMST

Last EPS Update 25-Jun 15-Jul 5-Jun 5-Jun
Value Line update 23-Sep 21-Jul 21-Jul 21-Jul
Earnings Date 18-Aug 13-Jul 14-Jul 11-Aug
Est. EPS 0.08 0.23 0.16 $0.10

Price 94 220 94 70
EPS 0.21 0.67 0.11 0.49
Sales per Share 1.9 2.58 0.53 1.16
3-5 yr. Growth Est. 58%/64% 28%/33% TMF75% 28%/35%
Divisor Revs/Earnings 6.2/7.2 2.7/3.1 9.4/9.4 2.7/3.3

P/S 50 85 178 60
P/S in 4 yrs. 8 32 VL17 22
P/E 447 328 859 142
P/E in 4 yrs. 50 105 VL35 43
PSG(PS/Growth) 0.86 3.04 2.37 1.72
PEG 7 9.9 11.4 5.1
Shares Outstanding 305M 146M 96M 200M
Market Cap. 29B 32B 9B 14B

Q's Rev. Growth Y o Y
(%) most recent 122 125 58 58
(%) 100 100 13 50
(%) 90 77 28 28
(%) 80 70 15 30
Q's Rev. Growth Seq.
(%) most recent 30 31 33 35
(%) 22 25 -4 28
(%) 22 14 16 9
(%) 15 20 8 -20
Annual Rev. Gro. YoY
(%) Est. 2000 88 100 48 28
(%) 1999 103 62 16 42
(%) 1998 80 28 40 30
E's Growth Rate Y o Y
(%) Est. 2000 95 57 80 20
(%) 1999 75 50 25 44
(%) 1998 71 7 210 47

Fully Dil. Share Inc. 6% 9% 4% 5%
Cash/Debt 0 debt 0 debt 0 debt 0 debt
Operate/Net Margin%
Est. 2000 23.5/12.8 47.7/22 41/26 65/51.6
1999 22.5/12.7 47/27.9 29/20 61/49VL
1998 21.9/12 46.2/23 28/18 61/45.2
1997 23/12.6 45.7/27 15/8 53/36.6
Flow Ratio
last Q 1.8 0.7 0.25 0.92
1999 1.8 1.05 0.33 1.63
1998 1.8 0.8 0.38 0.35
1997 1.67 0.12

------------------------------------------------------
Company BRCM QCOM JDSU

Last EPS Update 30-May 10-Jul 30-May
Value Line update 7-Oct 7-Oct 21-Jul
Earnings Date 21-Jul 19-Jul 26-Jul
Est. EPS 0.19 0.27 0.12

Price 249 62 105
EPS 0.57 0.77 0.26
Sales per Share 2.84 5.28 1.39
3-5 yr. Growth Est. 50%/44% 33%/43% 52%/65%
Divisor Revs/Earnings 5/4.3 3.1/4.2 5.3/7.4

P/S 88 12 76
P/S in 4 yrs. 17.5 4 14
P/E 435 80 400
P/E in 4 yrs. 100 19 55
PSG(PS/Growth) 1.75 0.36 1.45
PEG 9.9 1.86 6.2
Shares Outstanding 215M 741M 845M
Market Cap. 54B 46B 89B

Q's Rev. Growth Y o Y
(%) most recent 90 19 NMF
(%) 130 14 NMF
(%) 170 15 NMF
(%) 200 23 NMF
Q's Rev. Growth Seq.
(%) most recent 19 6 36
(%) 18 6 22
(%) 19 9 NMF
(%) 14 NMF
Annual Rev. Gro. YoY
(%) Est. 2000 75 13 xx
(%) 1999 155 18 65
(%) 1998 xx 65 64
E's Growth Rate Y o Y
(%) Est. 2000 75 70 110
(%) 1999 95 200 65
(%) 1998 50 84 xx

Fully Dil. Share Inc. 17% 15% 24%
Cash/Debt 0 debt 4.0/1 0
Operate/Net Margin%
Est. 2000 32/23 36.5/23 56.5/26.6
1999 31/21.4 20.4/10 39/16.3
1998 29.4/17.9 11.7/4 28.5/17
1997 9.1/3.9 21.7/14.1
Flow Ratio
last Q 1.66 1.9 1.67
1999 1.62 1.84 1.55
1998 1.98 1.84 1.44
1997
------------------------------------------------------

Company CREE BRCD RBAK RNWK

Last EPS Update 30-May 11-Jul 14-Jul 5-Jun
Value Line update XXXXX XXXXX 7-Oct 2-Sep
Earnings Date 27-Jul 14-Aug 12-Jul 20-Jul
Est. EPS 0.27 0.13 0.07 0.05

Price 147 205 163 52
EPS 0.73 0.25 d.01 -0.06
Sales per Share 2.72 1.43 1.04 1.04
3-5 yr. Growth Est. TMF48% TMF46% TMF50% 48%/NMF
Divisor Revs/Earnings 4.8/4.8 4.5/4.5 5.0/5.0 4.8/NMF

P/S 54 140 156 50
P/S in 4 yrs. 11 32 31/VL17 10
P/E 200 820 NMF NMF
P/E in 4 yrs. 42 180 VL 65 VL 66
PSG(PS/Growth) 1.1 3 3.12 1.04
PEG 4.2 18 NMF NMF
Shares Outstanding 33M 109M 145M 155M
Market Cap. 5B 22B 23B 8B

Q's Rev. Growth Y o Y
(%) most recent 76 489 340 120%
(%) 70 400 400 105%
(%) 65 TMF450 TMF550 97%
(%) 55 TMF350 TMF750 83%
Q's Rev. Growth Seq.
(%) most recent 18 50 42 23%
(%) 20 40 30 24.50%
(%) 18 40 25 22%
(%) 12 50 83 17.20%
Annual Rev. Gro. YoY
(%) Est. 2000 75 xx 200 95
(%) 1999 43 180 600 100
(%) 1998 47 200 100
E's Growth Rate Y o Y
(%) Est. 2000 95 NMF NMF NMF
(%) 1999 82 NMF NMF NMF
(%) 1998 NMF NMF NMF

Fully Dil. Share Inc. 5.00% NMF 5% 12%
Cash/Debt 0 0 .99/1 0 debt
Operate/Net Margin%
Est. 2000 36/32 G58/25/21 NMF xx
1999 27.6/21 G51/1.2/3 NMF -2%
1998 19.2/15 Gross 35 NMF -36
1997 10.7/12 Gross 21 NMF
Flow Ratio
last Q 1.32 0.69 0.78 0.18
1999 2.22 0.69 0.78 0.12
1998 2.32 0.58 0.68 0.21
1997 0.78

I used multiple sources for my info. I started and used Value Line for a majority of my initial info. I know its a crutch but it provides a very complete concise presentation of a lot of the info I need. Plus I was weaned on it as a teen learning investing from my dad. Best of all its free at my local and many other libraries(see no advertising in my posts) :)
I also used TMF for supplemental numbers usually annotated on the spread sheet. Also obbviously 10Q/K reports are reviewed.
Note that some of my operating/net margin figures and flow ratios come up somewhat different when I use the 10Q/K's vs VL(Value line) but I'm looking more for the trend so the key for me wqas to just be consistent. Please check the figures yourself as some of this research is done past midnight when wife and kids are asleep so the alertness of this researcher is not guaranteed.
Anyhow thats it. I thought this might be useful to some of you as there was a discussion re: what metrics people follow a few months back.
I was wondering if there is any interest in keeping up this kind of spreadsheet for other companies we follow as I'm close to my limit with these 15. Discussion as to other useful metrics to add to this kind of spreadsheet would also IMO be useful.
If you're interested in using or downloading this info to Excel I set up a shared file at this free site idrive.com . Just go to the site and type in <longvanilla> in the visit box and click on visit. When it appears Click on Gorillagamemetrics.xls , check box next to file, click download, click open or download depending on what you want.
That's it. Just wanted to contribute something to a board that gives so much to me.

Drag








































Post New | Post Reply | Reply Later | Create Poll . Report this Post | Recommend it!
Print the post  
UnThreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (3) | Ignore Thread Prev | Next

Announcements

What was Your Dumbest Investment?
Share it with us -- and learn from others' stories of flubs.
When Life Gives You Lemons
We all have had hardships and made poor decisions. The important thing is how we respond and grow. Read the story of a Fool who started from nothing, and looks to gain everything.
Community Home
Speak Your Mind, Start Your Blog, Rate Your Stocks

Community Team Fools - who are those TMF's?
Contact Us
Contact Customer Service and other Fool departments here.
Work for Fools?
Winner of the Washingtonian great places to work, and "#1 Media Company to Work For" (BusinessInsider 2011)! Have access to all of TMF's online and email products for FREE, and be paid for your contributions to TMF! Click the link and start your Fool career.
Advertisement