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Author: OneEyeBird Big gold star, 5000 posts Top Favorite Fools Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 20224  
Subject: Re: Poll: Technical Analysis Date: 5/14/2013 2:08 PM
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All that said, some respected technical analysts with phenonemal long-term track records of making money (like Peter Brandt)...

I was curious and looked him and up and viewed his performance which as you note is very impressive. Still, I can't help but get this odd feeling in my stomach that personal portfolio returns have little to do with returns associated with OPM. I know this because I've experienced this issue myself, esp. as AUM grows. Perhaps this is why I remain skeptical of TA MDC cause I don't know of anyone who actually manages AUM for others who points to TA as a primary source of their technique.

My problem, NOT THAT IT MATTERS, is I couldn't ever find someone with a verifiable track record who could teach it in terms where I could apply it. I'm looking for BOOKS of course. I can find that with FA (course, there aren't as many good ones as you think and creating a technique is a very personal thing) though realize that FA is so a broad term as to mean little of anything at all, but there is only so much time in the day so if you've got a pretty idea that working a certain way (not including this market where EVERY SELL has been wrong) it is hard to justify going anywhere else.

For me, technical analysis is primarily a risk mitigation technique just in case I am horribly off in my fundamental analysis. For example, based on the fundamentals as I understand them, I am bullish on gold. Yet presently, the chart on gold looks horrendous at all time frames. Whatever I believe, the overall action of the chart is telling me I am very wrong on something, so for now, I have no position in gold.

I'm glad you posted this - makes a lot more sense though I have to admit that if I thought I was horribly off in my fundamental analysis of something I'm not going to go there. You know I've written this a million times but you clearly write well, express yourself well, and get so many things that I can't help but think your talents are completely wasted on anything to do with TA. As a analytical person, I bet your ability to analyze business models - the easy ones, the ones I get - wouldn't be much of a stretch. Whether it would keep you interested is another matter entirely.


as usual, just 2c
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