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There was a news item on the various feeds today to the effect that boomers are starting to sell off their equities and convert them to "safe" investments - one assumes short-term treasuries. Apparently the FDIC is projecting a negative impact on the equities market lasting decades. Could this be one of the reasons the Fed is so confident of being able to keep short term rates in the near-zero range for at least the next two years: they have a buyer? Or isn't there enough money in the boomers' portfolios to have an impact on t-bills?


Sample article:
http://www.moneynews.com/FinanceNews/Fed-Boomers-Stocks-reco...
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I think we already *are* Japan, without the social safety net.

#29
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America to become Japan?

It already is--and has been--Japan for a number of years. The economy is adding jobs extremely slowly. Everything is stuck is slo-mo except the stock market--which is bouncing like a Superball. If Obama is re-elected, then it could get interesting.

If a conservative wins in 2012, then another crash is possible. It will depend who controls Congress. If conservatives control Congress, then a crash is virtually a certainty.

Boomers buying short-term Treasuries is no surprise.
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But quite unlike Japan, we still have

*large numbers of immigrants who want to come here.

*higher birth rates

*extensive natural resources yet to be developed (if we choose to do so)
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*large numbers of immigrants who want to come here.

They want to go ANYWHERE--but the US is their *first* choice.

*higher birth rates

Birth rates have dropped off in the US *except* for new immigrants.

*extensive natural resources yet to be developed (if we choose to do so)

Depends on the "natural resource". Lots of talk--but when it comes time to actually *spend* money, the companies are NOT doing it unless they have an established market (China, etc). The "easy to get" stuff is long gone, so getting the rest will require significant time and expense to obtain--and may need a new technology to make it affordable (or even possible).
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I was just looking at the total for (GDP + inflation) for a few countries yesterday, these are the estimated totals for some major countries for 2011:

China 14.4%

Britain 5.7%
Canada 5.7%
USA 5.2%
Euro Area 4.6%

Japan -0.3%


Maybe the USA will get to the Japan position one day, but it's not there now, and I don't think it's going to get there either.

SA
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We should be so lucky. Japanese girls are hot.
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