Message Font: Serif | Sans-Serif
 
UnThreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (5) | Ignore Thread Prev | Next
Author: newsreporter Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 216  
Subject: Analyst comments Date: 3/19/2010 7:40 PM
Post New | Post Reply | Reply Later | Create Poll . Report this Post | Recommend it!
Recommendations: 3
GameStop Surges and Proves It Is No Blockbuster
http://bit.ly/agr9j9


Critics argue that GameStop will go the way of Blockbuster (BBI), which is teetering on the verge of bankruptcy, because video game sales will increasingly go digital. The theory goes that bricks and mortar will be an anchor on results and it is only a matter of time. However, as we see it, there is one extremely important difference between GameStop and Blockbuster: profit.

Recall, if you will, Blockbuster has not turned an annual profit in six long years, and the losses have widened for the last 4. Even when Blockubster was in its heyday around the turn of the millennium, profits were hard to come by, which doesn’t speak well of management. In contrast, GameStop reported a fiscal fourth quarter 2010 (ended Jan.) net income of $215.9 million or $1.29 per share, which is better than Wall Street estimates of $1.27 per share. That means for the year the company earned $2.28 per share, so even after today’s 9% rally the stock trades for 9.5x trailing twelve month earnings. The midpoint of 2011 EPS guidance comes in at $2.63, which is 15% growth in the next year. Overall sales grew by 3.1% over the past year, which hardly warrants the catastrophic tone that some have taken towards the video game industry. Management said they expect a decent rebound in sales growth next year, calling for growth of 4% to 6%. The midpoint of the guided sales range would equate to $9.53 billion or $150 mln better than consensus analysts’ estimates.

Are the headwinds for GameStop? Of course. The threat of aforementioned mentioned digital distribution may cut out distributors like GameStop completely, as game developers may connect directly to consumers. There is growing competition particularly in used game sales from some of retail’s heaviest hitters like Walmart (WMT) and Amazon (AMZN), but as of yet GameStop has effectively managed to maintain and even grow profits in the face of competition. At least up to this point, gamers like the feeling of physically holding a highly anticipated game purchase and GameStop instantly gives this to them while Amazon and Walmart do not.

Will a service like Gamefly pester GameStop like Netflix (NFLX) has Blockbuster? This one is doubtful, in my opinion; games are different from movies in that they are used repeatedly rather than a single use at a time. One great thing about Netflix is sending a just-viewed movie back in order to get another one that you have been waiting to see. Gamers however invest time in the game, and while Gamefly will attract some serious gamers looking to test out games for their next purchase, we think it has less appeal for the average gamer and have less of an effect on GME.

By looking at historically normal valuations, it is clear that the market has priced in a substantial amount of downside has been priced into GameStop already. For example, GME’s price-to-cash earnings of 5.7x is well below the historically normal range of 8.3x to 19.1x. Furthermore, price-to-sales over the last ten years has historically ranged between .46x to 1.08x, but the current multiple is .37x with sales expected rise in the year ahead. We currently have an Undervalued rating on GME, and based on the market’s normal valuation of this stock, we think it could trade in the high-$20 without any concern over valuation give current fundamentals.an
Post New | Post Reply | Reply Later | Create Poll . Report this Post | Recommend it!
Print the post  
UnThreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (5) | Ignore Thread Prev | Next

Announcements

Post of the Day:
Value Hounds

Kate Spade's Wild Ride
What was Your Dumbest Investment?
Share it with us -- and learn from others' stories of flubs.
When Life Gives You Lemons
We all have had hardships and made poor decisions. The important thing is how we respond and grow. Read the story of a Fool who started from nothing, and looks to gain everything.
Community Home
Speak Your Mind, Start Your Blog, Rate Your Stocks

Community Team Fools - who are those TMF's?
Contact Us
Contact Customer Service and other Fool departments here.
Work for Fools?
Winner of the Washingtonian great places to work, and "#1 Media Company to Work For" (BusinessInsider 2011)! Have access to all of TMF's online and email products for FREE, and be paid for your contributions to TMF! Click the link and start your Fool career.
Advertisement