Hi Discussion-Board Fools,I have strayed over from my usual stomping grounds to share with you the results of my recent interview with Hecla CEO Phillips Baker:http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2012/01/30/anatomy-of-......This is merely the first installment in a series that I hope will provide a valuable in-depth analysis of the company's long-term growth prospects and help investors to look over the horizon beyond the recently announced stoppage at Lucky Friday.I will try to come back here and post the remaining installments, but otherwise be sure to catch them by bookmarking my article list or following me on Twitter:Twitter:https://twitter.com/#!/TMFSinchirunaArticle List:http://www.fool.com/author/1632/index.aspx
Hmmm.. link doesn't appear to work once shortened. Trying againhttp://www.fool.com/investing/general/2012/01/30/anatomy-of-...If it still doesn't work, please click to my article list and find it there:Article List:http://www.fool.com/author/1632/index.aspx
I do not understand the postings from many of the folks that have usernames that start with TMF. I read the linked piece, it reads like an off-channel infomercial where the interviewer is more important than the reader. I wish Christopher Barker well, my comment is on structure, not honesty. I cherish the information, the links, the persons here on this board, rarely do we have pump stories posted, or if we do, we do it to keep ourselves aware of the various information channels out there in internet land.Here is a one year chart of Hecla, it is, as one might say, getting cheaper.http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=HL+Interactive#chart2:sym...Hecla is on the short interest list: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-26/largest-nyse-short-...does not seem to be a big deal; http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/hl/short-interestthe latest presentation (last week): www.hecla-mining.com/investors/documents/Hecla_JanuaryUpdate...it looks good, smells good even with the recent news, but the stock price (and with healthy volume) says ... not now.from the web: The stock price of Hecla Mining ( HL ) took a more than 20% dive when it was announced on January 11th that the Lucky Friday mine would be closed for a year. Hecla’s production this year is now expected to be 7 million vs. 9.5 million ounces before the announcement.and the bull case: By Simit Patel : Hecla Mining Company ( HL ), the largest silver producer in the U.S., is a company that I've been considering investing in for some time. After yesterday's sell off in which it fell by more than 20%, though, I'm left feeling particularly bullish on the stock. Hecla fell on news... unquote.anybody follow this Hecla? I just checked and my Hussman HSTRX did not have it in the latest SEC docs (30Sept201).I am about five percent of the portfolio in:Agnico-Eagle Mines Ltd.AngloGold Ashanti Ltd. - ADRBarrick Gold Corp.Compania De Minas Buenaventura S.A. - ADRFreeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold, Inc.Goldcorp, Inc.Gold Fields Ltd. - ADRHarmony Gold Mining Co. Ltd. - ADRNewmont Mining Corp.Randgold Resources Ltd.Stillwater Mining Co.plus my leetle guys, the local gold mine and streamer, and my RE plays.Ti - no bullion, no CEF, which is odd. I remain long volatility, short the market, and long the UST long bond zeros but really I am on the sidelines, waiting for better prices.
Not sure exactly what qualifies as "leetle guys" Ti, but junior miners is where my sidelined cash went on the 13th, and the juniors have had a fabulous January as represented by GDXJhttp://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=GDXJ+Interactive#chart3:s...Sadly, due to my conservative nature (grin), I only got half this ride. it almost makes me consider being a subscriber of Adam at Gold vs Paper. He nailed the timing at the end of December (his timing hasn't always been so perfect since he first started his blog, IIRC)Smufty
SandstormSanta Fe GoldGreat WesternLynasMatamecQuantumNeoplus the big ones:Agnico-Eagle Mines Ltd.AngloGold Ashanti Ltd. - ADRBarrick Gold Corp.Compania De Minas Buenaventura S.A. - ADRFreeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold, Inc.Goldcorp, Inc.Gold Fields Ltd. - ADRHarmony Gold Mining Co. Ltd. - ADRNewmont Mining Corp.Randgold Resources Ltd.Stillwater Mining Co.about equal weighting between the two groups. I continue to watch, not much interested in trades. Did that, takes way too much time. I did my due dill, I did trade, and they can now just be my holds.I do not see gold taking off in a time of slow velocity money. The 'printing' that is going on is at a level that does not reach gold buyers, or IphoneIpadMac buyers, carbide tool bit buyers, or rubber buyers. Prices are up in food/energy/dirt because of supply demand - we are not seeing fear of currency moving to gold. But ... if I am wrong, I have my price, based on the chart to begin to buy back my CEF (Canadian Central Fund). I am watching 1840, the channel we are in (at the top right now).and if I am wrong, my holdings in the US long bond zeros would will get crushed (yields on USTs would go way up), my short positions on the market (SH and SDS) would go up in value. I would have time to get out of the sinking ship as I do not have mechanical stops in place.weird not having no bullionCentral Fund holdings, but I have no energies either, nor ags or base metals. Tis what it is, mostly on the sidelines.Ti
TiPiper,That was an incredibly rude and childish thing to say. I honestly can't tell from your comment whether you are aware that the TMF in front of the username indicates a member of the Motley Fool staff or a full-time analyst/writer. So when you disparage "the postings from many of the folks that have usernames that start with TMF", you disparage the very people that make this site that you so enjoy possible. Show some respect.I traveled 3,000 miles to attend the Vancouver conference so I could bring valuable information and insight into precious-metal miners to this very Foolish community, and I certainly did not do so to be disrespected in such a manner.I know the boards tend to remain their own isolated microcosm of the Motley Fool community; though I wish that were not the case. You may choose to completely ignore the quality discussions and analyses of precious metal miners that cross the Foolish airwaves every day outside of this Discussion Board microcosm, but you have no cause to disparage and disrespect them as you did above.We are, after all, a community. Our community may have neighborhoods that primarily keep to themselves, but I believe we are all united by a common appreciation of Foolish open-mindedness and decorum.I hope the next time I choose to post my material here in the boards, you will show me the respect I deserve.Christopher BarkerPrecious Metals AnalystTMFSinchiruna
Oh, I almost forgot, here is Part 2:http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2012/01/31/anatomy-of-...
Well Chris, while we disagree, I wish you well in your endeavors. As to the TMF folk I read most closely, I find great value in the writings of the staff on the Motley Fool Rule Your Retirement Board.Most of us on the Mining and Metals board see pitches on miners most everytime we connect to the internet. Some pitches read very well. Others do not read will. Of course it depends on how the reader reacts to the writing.Your column struck me hard enough that I took time to post my thoughts. In my world, how one presents information is an important part of how that information is received. I do not find it rude and childish to comment on your style of presenting the Hecla story. If your style appeals to others, then they will be moved by your presentation. I was turned off by your style and by your presentation. I am not your editor, nor your copy-writer, not your boss or your judge. If your style meets the needs of your position in the Motley Fool corporation, then the marketplace has spoken.We also have differences on where respect comes from. Not a big deal.Differences are what makes the marketplace work.good-day.Ti
This series on Hecla is a top-notch examination of strengths that are presently being overlooked by a market fixated on the temporary stoppage at Lucky Friday. Whatever it was about the piece that "turned you off" is a barrier of your own construction that is closing your mind to a well-informed perspective from right inside your own online community. I wish you well with your precious metal investments, but I have found that the most successful investors are those remain open to all valuable perspectives and insights... Even those that sometimes lurk right under our noses. You know, your not-so-cordial reception jogged my memory banks. I recalled you rudely insinuating I was a pump-and-dumper for posting a pair of press releases on Great Panther Silver, stating it was my favorite silver play at the time, and stating that in my opinion it was incredibly undervalued. So I went back and checked, and here it is from May of 2008:http://boards.fool.com/great-panther-releases-drill-results-...Your snarky and rude reply was "Sincher, have you actually met resourceinvestor?"I don't get over here to the boards very often, and with the reception I've received from you on two of those occasions, is it any wonder? I think I understand what's REALLY going on here.To the open-minded members of this community, please know that a far more welcoming reception awaits any and all of you who may wish to dip their Foolish toes into the CAPS blogs once in a while to say hi to another vibrant corner of this online community that is enriched by the perspectives of more than 100 dedicated and knowledgeable precious metal investors.Stop by my blog sometime and say hello. You, and your investment ideas, will be most welcome:http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/ViewBlog.aspx?t=01006124249416869...Please bookmark my article list to follow all my precious metal and commodity coverage.http://www.fool.com/author/1632/index.aspx?source=iapsitlnk0...And if you want to see which stock I've [sarcasm] "pumped" [/sarcasm] recently, then have a read here:http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/why-im-addicted-to-cardero/679269...I love this Foolish community from the bottom of my heart. I wish you all the very best.Perhaps someday I'll enjoy a warmer reception within this particular neighborhood.
I hope the next time I choose to post my material here in the boards, you will show me the respect I deserve.Uh, sir, not to change the subject, but why in the world do you deserve our respect? I'm not being anti-anything, seriously, but can't help but wonder just how you became so important that one article linked with no previous interest in this board that I know of (so posted "in the middle of nowhere", so to speak) entitles you to anything at all, let alone my respect. You may get it, but you have to earn it. Just because you can type does not mean I owe you anything whatsoever.Fortunately, they're not all so darned conceited, but "TMF" indeed, does not make one worthy of anything. By all means, try to earn it, but please do not come here and demand my respect.I'm a heckuva nice guy, good looking, smart, have a perfect son and a trophy wife. I have hundreds--nay, thousands--of followers. Therefore you should respect my thoughts.--Not.Respectfully,Danps: At least I give REASONS you should respect me. :)
pps: Twitter? What's a Twitter? :)Dan
Dan,In the Motley Fool world that I inhabit, every member of this community deserves and enjoys mutual respect. You guys may walk to the beat of a different drum in here, but I assure you that respect as a starting point for interactions in the broader Fool community forms a core value that defines what this site is all about. If you wish to continue ignoring the quality coverage of the metals and mining space that I've been providing to this community for the past 6 years, you are of course welcome to do so. But if you think such a decision is conducive to being the best-informed metals investor you can be, good luck with that.Christopher
I know what you mean, Christopher, but demanding respect won't help you. Do you think John Mauldin would respond similar to yours above, to an article deriding one of his analyses?Don't think so.Please think about it. You shouldn't have to tell us, or anyone, that your pieces are "well-reasoned", "high quality" or whatever. The sign of a true professional is they let the audience decide what the quality level is, and then let the chips fall where they may. If you've done the work in the trenches, it will show and eventually you will be "accepted." Until then, no amount of bragging or chest-thumping will make a difference.If you really are interested in the subject (not the process, or how you are received) then maybe you should be on this board more than once a year or whatever. What do you think? This is the Mining and Metals board, after all. Are we not your intended audience? Maybe not. After all, we are critical, because we know a thing or two about the sector too.With all due respect,Dan
I think it's terrific that this group plays host to another nucleus of knowledge and insight into the sector; i just find it depressing that it all occurs in utter isolation here. I believe strongly in the value of community intelligence, which -- along with the previously noted convention of mutual respect -- is a value at the core of The Motley Fool as an online destination. I am constantly supplied with tips and ideas from within the CAPS community.I have periodically monitored this board for the past several years, but it does not appear that you are at all familiar with the gifted community of precious metal investors that makes its home within the CAPS blogs. And while you question why I have not frequented this microcosm more frequently, the less-than-welcoming receptions received at every attempt are as clear an answer as I can give. Why in the world would I choose to make this a destination?So the ball is in your court. My articles are out there and easy to find, particularly my last 50 articles as archived at the link supplied above. You can elect to remain oblivious to their existence, or you can choose to have a look. I have already offered to give you a warm and respectful reception at my CAPS blog if you ever decide to stop in, but I won't hold my breath. :)
"...i just find it depressing that it all occurs in utter isolation here."Well, this board has been around since 1997, long before CAPS was hatched. It's not like everyone here broke away from CAPS, more like the Fool broke away intending to create a different neighborhood in the Fool community. You have chosen to support the CAPS approach. So maybe it's the FOOL that has brought about our "isolation". I doubt everyone here has treated you badly but I guess if that's how it seems to you then I don't blame you for not hanging out with us.We're not in hiding and they even let me in here. Maybe not everyone prefers the CAPS approach.Take care,Ken
http://boards.fool.com/39-trillion-was-a-drop-in-the-bucket-...From the macro board, November 2008: said a motfol poster: quote: Hi Fools! Some of you may have caught my last tally back in October, when I reported a total commitment of $3.9 trillion for the crisis to that date. Well, I'm sorry to say that the total has more than doubled since then. By my calculations, as laid out in the article linked below, the persent tally now stands at a jaw-dropping $8.6 trillion!!!http://www.fool.com/investing/international/2008/11/26/39-tr.........And my blog post about it:http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/ViewPost.aspx?bpid=113879&t=0.........I welcome any and all feedback, and thank you for reading!...Thankfully, one need not convert out of the currency to find some protection from a falling dollar.The Motley Fool Global Gains newsletter team is constantly scouring the globe to identify terrific investment opportunities for Fools who wish to diversify out of the domestic markets, and they're ready to share their findings with you. unsnipquote.this is a drive-by.pumkinpie in the oven. Turkey in the fridge. Give to the food-pantries if you can in February.Ti
I have already offered to give you a warm and respectful reception at my CAPS blog if you ever decide to stop in, but I won't hold my breath. :)My turn. I signed up for Caps some years back. When I tried to enter my Canuck stocks they were not acceptable. When I asked why I was told that the Canuck exchanges were not to be trusted. So much for a warm reception. I couldn't even delete the damn thing. I haven't been back since. Tim
Don't let it be said I haven't tried:http://boards.fool.com/urgent-live-forum-with-alexandria-ceo...July 2011"I hope this marks just the beginning of an improvement in communcations crosscurrents between the Boards and the Blogs. :) I've found that some users of one are not even aware the other portion of the site exists, and that's a shame. :) Both are terrific resources, and both have dedicated Fools paying close attention to the metals and mining space. Let's combine our resources as often and as effectively as we can! :)"Response from board: crickets.
Hi Tim,I'm sorry to hear that you had an unenjoyable experience. Please understand, I am not trying to wrestle people away from this community, but am rather hopeful that we can just lower the walls a bit that seem to separate the neighborhoods.And CAPS is far from a paradise. One can certainly run into the occasional jerk in there. The core point is that we are members of the same community with parallel interests as investors. I would imagine that would make us fast friends. :)
Ken,I can even understand ignoring CAPS because you prefer the boards format, but you all seem to be missing my published articles as well... Which have nothing to do with CAPS. The Motley Fool sent me to Vancouver to cover the conference last week. If I hadn't come by to post the Hecla interview, it seems none of you would have found any of the resulting work. I visited multiple mining operations last year to bring a first-hand perspective of the operations to the Fool community. The Hecla interview is the first I've posted here, but there have been a slew. I have developed contacts within the industry that grant me uncommon access for getting to the bottom of a story. I mention these things not in an attempt to boast, but simply because you all seem to be completely unaware that a member of the fool community is Out there collecting information for you in this way. Researching gold and silver stocks is my full time job. I own more than 120 metals equities in my own portfolio, and In all I track several hundred stocks. I also cover coal, base metals, shippers, railroads, etc; though pms are certainly my primary focus. So do I feel frustrated to learn that all this work is not even reaching folks in this group... Sure I do!I've helped my readers to enjoy outsized gains on gold and silver over the years. My silverminer CAPS portfolio is ranked 3rd among all long-only CAPS players, with an accuracy rating above 80%. My Silver Wheaton article published on the day the stock hit its multi-year low of $2.51 has helped scores of community members to epic returns. This will all undoubtedly strike some of you as boastful, but I assure you that is not my intention here. I am trying to drive the point home that this discussion group, for all the strengths and resources that I'm sure it does have, does not have a monopoly on precious metal research and perspectives.No matter Tipiper's critique of my "presentation style", I feel strongly enough about bridging the gap between the senseless physical separations that divide segments of this community, that I will make an effort to play a more active role in this community. That is contingent, of course, on there being a portion of this community that is willing to show me a modicum of cordiality that was lacking in the initial reply to this post.We're all in this together.
So I can now enter my Canuck listed stocks in CAPS? Yahoo finance, Google finance and a half dozen other sites allow me to enter both TSX and Venture stocks. In fact the only place that has never allowed me to enter Canuck stocks was good old TMF. Since I rarely buy US stocks (I currently have just two) I have no reason to hang around CAPS. Tim
I understand the frustration, and share the critique.Larger canuck shares can be picked for CAPS via the corresponding pink sheet equity, but even many of those aren't rateable if the liquidity isn't there. Unfortunately, the wish-list for site improvements far exceeds the scale of the technical staff.Again, my aim here is mot to pull people away from here, but for the occasional visit I would simply say that there are reasons to visit CAPS that go way beyond the stock-picking aspect. The CAPS blogs are a tremendous resource to resource investors. The company-specific pages give one access to a snapshot of community opinion on the stock, including bullband bear pitches.
Unfortunately, the wish-list for site improvements far exceeds the scale of the technical staff.So IIRC the vast majority of mining stocks are listed in Canada but you can't enter them in caps... so how do you do your job? Do you only talk about mining stocks that made the cut in which case you are ignoring the majority of mining stocks or do you just talk about stocks that you can't even enter? Frankly I and Wayne Owl asked the question some years ago and the attitude was why would we care about Canadian listed stocks. All these years later with the US banking stocks torn to shreds and having shredded much of the rest of the globe, after the tech boom and with a US economy that looks the worst for wear y'all still can't spare a programmer for a few days to change a few criteria to allow Canuck listings to be displayed... not much has changed. Has a feeling we never made the wish list. Tim
Tim, I completely share the frustration there. The resource sector at large, even after everything, remains an afterthought in most circles. And yes, it remains a foreign concept to most american investors why anyone would have an interest in Canadian stocks.But it doesn't stop me/us from covering the stocks we want to cover. As you know, most (though certainly not all) Canadian resource companies mid-cap and larger are cross-listed on a u.s exchange. Those that are not, like Osisko for example, I can reference in my articles through the pink sheet vehicle.See here from my top 10 gold picks article for 2012:http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2011/12/30/the-top-10-...Now, in my published articles I generally can't cover companies smaller than $200m. So I reserve my discussion of juniors for my blog. While the stock-picking game is entertaining, and offers a good way to hold folks accountable to their track records, the inability to add certain stocks does not prevent us from discussing them. The CAPS blog is really the heart of CAPS, at least as I experience it.
I don't think that Smufty has ever really treated anyone particularly poorly here.Well, except Tim...but he is a Canadian after all...
Well, except Tim...but he is a Canadian after all...Yah, y'all get away with pickin on Canucks cause we are so nice... until we get y'all out on the hockey rink. }};-DDo you think I should go look at Caps? Last time I looked was some years back and I was trying to figure out how to delete my account there with no luck. I wasn't here at the time but WayneOwl told me that the two leaders of the dorky hat crowd were very anti-Canuck in the early days. Maybe they bought into the Bre-X Gold mine in Indonesia? }};-D
I miss AeroFool. He was big into Caps when it first started and, IIRC, was the first here to pump Capstone - entered it into the first WayneOwl competition.He had some great insights. Struck me as an all in, buy and hold type 'though. I figured the markets knocked the snot out of him in 2008 and perhaps the excitment of posting here left too.Smufty
AeroFool had a travel blog that I followed a bit, great pictures from all sorts of interesting places. 2008 was a lesson for a lot of people. Just because a good stock had gone down a lot doesn't mean the general mess wouldn't make it go down some more. By Feb of 2009 there were a lot of deer that couldn't face the headlights anymore and missed some great buys. I'm still sitting on three very large positions that are all three baggers+ with dividends from that time in our tax free accounts (wife and I each have one). I have pared back a couple of the others. Clearly none of them are miners as a good dividend was a criteria for those accounts. Tim
I got started on Fool boards in the late 90's. It was intuitively obvious to me how they worked and the value of the time spent interacting. When CAPS came on line -- not so much. Maybe I'm just too busy to get my head around how to make the added complexity worth the effort. My impression is they tend to be a bit clubbish (evem more so than some of the harder core of these boards). Recent ruffled feathers sort of reinforce that impression.
As long as we're reminiscing, can I share with you guys something so profoundly sad that I came across last night?This is my article on Silver Wheaton from May of 2010, wherein I shared my long-term price target of $100 for the stock. http://www.fool.com/investing/international/2010/05/17/eyein...See the second comment posted beneath the article. The last line brought tears to my eyes. If you're not ready to feel sadness, then please don't look.
Here is Part 3 of the series on Hecla, for those that might be interested:http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2012/02/02/anatomy-of-...
I follow this board and I follow your blogs on Caps. I have to say, this board hasn't been this active in a while, so welcome aboard I say. I also think some of your articles on the Canadian microcap miners might fit in well over here. But, you will likely get more response for them, as you have frequently in the past, over on Caps. Tdonb
TY Sinch I've really enjoyed this series I am looking forward to future articles from your trip to BC.
ubernut,Glad you enjoyed the Hecla series. On Monday look for my 2-part series resulting from an interview with Aurcana CEO Lenic Rodriguez.Also next week will be interviews with Thompson Creek Metals CEO Kevin Loughrey, and Cardero EVP Keith Henderson. At some point I want to share a more informal summary of observations with the community, but I haven't determined what form that will take yet.
I know the boards tend to remain their own isolated microcosm of the Motley Fool community; though I wish that were not the case. You may choose to completely ignore the quality discussions and analyses of precious metal miners that cross the Foolish airwaves every day outside of this Discussion Board microcosm, but you have no cause to disparage and disrespect them as you did above.TMFSinchiruna,have a rec......you do deserve respect as a fellow human being. But the Motley Fool's contribution to this site and the posters across this site such as these here.....while they should never be at odds.....with the statement above they somewhat are. The posters make this site.....not the staff..........a week ago I finally broke down and admitted a staff member wrote something extremely good......while I certainly hope it will not be the last time......it has been the only time.....What elavates this site for board members above that of say Yahoo...and others....is the communittee pulling news stories limb from limb apart.....showing how bad finance and economic writers are.I do not subscibe to the notion gold and oil will be heading higher. Quite the oposite I see the economy ironing out its problems and production going higher while commodities begin to hit the skids......so I dont post on this board much......why help those who will go down happily with the ship.....like an Italian cruise......ofw.....Dave
Quite the oposite I see the economy ironing out its problems and production going higher while commodities begin to hit the skids......so I dont post on this board much..Dave,You don't see a contradiction in that? Production going higher implies a need for Copper, Zinc, Recycled Steel, Lead, Cobalt, Nickel and a host of other "commodities". Perhaps you think of commodities as just Gold, Platinum, Palladium and Silver? Tim
Dave, I know you from the METAR board. If you ever post here a reasoned analysis of a specific miner, I promise I will poop my pants in surprise.In all the years on Metar, I do not recall a single positive post on precious metals from you. If I am wrong, please post a link so I can eat crow.So... I figure that your posting over here will primarily consist of being a critic, and presenting your macroeconomic opinions. If that is the case I (and I believe I can speak for many of the regulars here) beg that, at a minimum, you bring an argument backed by data and sources other than just your opinion, especially if that opinion is provacative and argumentative.Smufty
Hello TMFSinchirunaInteresting to see another age of activism unfold at the Fool, more interesting to see it expressed with this board as a target.I've read some of your articles over the years, and pieces of those you've linked here on Hecla (HL).You got me interested enough to plug it into my redneck spreadsheet and I was surprised to see that HL has a negative return on retained earnings. I would have thought that a company with the longevity of HL would have, by now, had an impressive build-up of retained earnings, even with paying a dividend.Now I must admit that I came to the notion of including return on retained earnings from my experience here at the Fool over the years.The formulation I use for calculating it may or may not be "correct", but I don't want to get sidetracked by formula arguments, just want to focus on the sign being a "minus" sign (which happens whenever either the numerator (mostly earnings) or the denominator (retained earnings) is negative. In this case it is the denominator.In the pursuit of finding what was up, I went to the SEC filing for the most recent 10-k (filed 2/25/11) and see that at the end of 2007 the accumulated total of retained earnings to that point in the company's history was $-274,877,000.OK, I thought, the last few years have been nice ones in the price of what they sell, maybe they've had earnings enough by now to offset that. It turns out, however, that as of 12/31/2010 the retained earnings was $-265,577,000. [Retained earnings is the 6th column from the left at the following site].http://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/viewer?action=view&cik=719413... Now that they've had to close down an important mine to (what I read as) catch up on deferred maintenence, a skeptical investor (such as I fashion myself to be) has to wonder what other deferred maintence issues might be lurking in the wings & do I even want to try to ferret out that information (presuming, of course, that I could) for a company whose earnings apparently have been meager enough in an 11 year precious bull market not to offset the losses from th preceding bear market?One has to wonder if time wouldn't be more productively spent looking for prospects that didn't carry such heavy baggage from the past?Poz
PosFCF,I can't say enough good things about the line of thinking you are pursuing and the degree of scrutiny you are seeking to apply here.For a company like Hecla that carries a negative value for retained earnings, another label is used; in this case "accumulated deficit". We don't look for a return on retained earnings where there are no retained earnings to begin with.The fact that Hecla's accumulated deficit changed very little from 2007 to 2010 comes as no surprise to me given the vastly disparate market conditions between 2008 on the one hand, and the strong years of 2009 and 2010 on the other. In effect, they cancelled each other out. In addition to the credit crisis and its impact on the silver price that we all well remember, 2008 was also the year that Hecla sold its assets in Venezuela for a slight loss. And just before the crisis struck, Hecla invested $750m to consolidate the 70% stake in Greens Creek that it didn't already own. As a result of the $380m debt financing employed to make the acquisition, Hecla faced an elevated interest expense in 2008 of $20m. The combination of a $20m interest expense, $17m loss from the discontinued operations in Venezuela, and the devastating market conditions of 2008 that had Pan American Silver also operating at a loss ... those all combined to yield an $80m loss for Hecla in 2008. Under the circumstances, the fact that earnings from 2009 and 2010 managed to cancel out that horrific year in 2008 I find rather encouraging.So the delta between accumulated deficit in 2007 to that in 2010 reflects retained earnings of $9.35 million over the period. The whole point of my series on Hecla was to point out the positive elements of Hecla's legacy assets at a time when the market is keenly focused upon negatives like the deep operating depth at Lucky Friday and associated safety concerns, etc. As a shareholder, I certainly did not appreciate the impact of that legacy litigation settlement, so that was definitely a case where today's holders were haunted by the legacy operations. But with that settlement now behind it, I believe the positive attributes of Hecla's mammoth landholdings within the continent's legendary silver districts far outweighs the negative ... accumulated deficit and all.Thanks for posting your thoughts, and for taking the time to give Hecla consideration through your Foolishly skeptical lens. :)
The whole point of my series on Hecla was to point out the positive elements of Hecla's legacy assets at a time when the market is keenly focused upon negatives like the deep operating depth at Lucky Friday and associated safety concerns, etc. Yeah, I kinda got that impression.But with that settlement now behind it, I believe the positive attributes of Hecla's mammoth landholdings within the continent's legendary silver districts far outweighs the negative ... accumulated deficit and all.Well, perhaps you are correct, but after decades of operation, the accumulated experience of the current long-term owners is a negative retained earnings plus whatever dividends have been paid out to the common shareholders.At a share price of $5.40 and a dividend of 8 cents that translates into a current yield of 1.48% and this after an 11 year bull market. If I were to get into this company, I think I'd either look for some preferreds (if they have them) or resign myself to the greater fool theory and hope that I could find one when I went to sell my shares, as I suspect my investment experience in HL will, at best, match that of the current batch of longer term owners.and the devastating market conditions of 2008 that had Pan American Silver also operating at a loss ...I'll assume PAAS was mentioned because I have mentioned in the past that I liked its operations and management.I'll take this opportunity (even if that wasn't why you mentioned it) to point out that even with 2008, their return on retained earnings is coming back on my spreadsheet as +117%, quite the contrast.Anyway, thanks for sharing your thoughts and taking the time to visit with the managements of some of these miners.Poz
Poz,"after decades of operation, the accumulated experience of the current long-term owners is a negative retained earnings plus whatever dividends have been paid out to the common shareholders."I would argue that is not the whole picture. The experience of the current long-term holder is variable according to their cost basis and the theoretical capital gain or loss associated therewith. In the case of investors who may have purchased shares in the early 90s above $14 per share, their experience would indeed be horrific with the accumulated deficit exacerbated by a sizeable capital loss (theoretical according to relative share price). But for those long-term investors who may have purchased near the beginning of this bull market cycle when HL was under $1, their experience of this bull market is a profoundly positive one in which realized or unrealized capital gains have accrued most dramatically even before the recent addition of a dividend. I am a long-term buy-and-hold investor, but I do not subscribe to the notion that shareholder gains are appropriately measured in dividends and RORE alone. There is an entry price, and the option of an exit price, and the difference between them is critical in measuring accrued shareholder value over a given period.My citing of PAAS had nothing to do with your prior mention of the company, which I have not seen. It was an example to show that the industry as a whole was operating at a loss in 2008. Here is my coverage of PAAS' Q4 2008:http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2009/02/23/another-way...As for comparing yields on retained earnings between PAAS and Hecla, that can not be done, since Hecla had no retained earnings on which to produce any yield. The correct answer for HL's RORE is NA (not applicable), not the negative figure you are seeing in your spreadsheet. Moreover, I can not comment on specific values you are providing without seeing your methodology for calculating RORE.
As for comparing yields on retained earnings between PAAS and Hecla, that can not be done, since Hecla had no retained earnings on which to produce any yield. So formulas in which negative numbers occur do not exist or do not have validity? In HL's case there are retained earnings, they were negative numbers, otherwise referred to as accumulated losses when the number is negative.One of the reasons I have RORE (plus about a 100 other metrics) in my spreadsheet is that it does allow me to compare companies.But, in any event, you have your opinions and have stated them, and I have arrived at somewhat different conclusions, and that's what makes a market.Poz
"So formulas in which negative numbers occur do not exist or do not have validity?"In this case, that's correct. I think it's great that you are seeking to track so many metrics within your spreadsheet, but it is critical that you uinderstand the limitations of the data where they exist. Provided you are comfident in the methodology you have employed to calculate RORE, you can indeed use it as an instructional comparison among companies with a positive value for retained earnings. When you're dealing with accumulated deficits, however, the correct value for RORE is NA. If you pause to think about what it measures, it will make sense.... you can't have a yield on capital that doesn't exist. RORE is only a salient metric in the presence of retained earnings.But I have a separate question as a newbie to the boards ... how do you get the excerpts from my post to appear in your reply as italics? :)
When you're dealing with accumulated deficits, however, the correct value for RORE is NA. If you pause to think about what it measures, it will make sense.... you can't have a yield on capital that doesn't exist. RORE is only a salient metric in the presence of retained earningsSo, your position is that when the managers of capital, end up destroying value, as evidenced in accumulated losses, that the metric must be counted as N/A?I think I'll exit this conversation, so glad your crusade decided to inflict itself here....Poz
Just a follow-up for the other readers.This is a quick summation from an independent third-party site of what we have been discussing:What are negative retained earnings?http://www.accountingtools.com/questions-and-answers/what-ar...Perhaps the info not coming from a redneck might make it more believable...Poz
You may exit the discussion if you choose. I was only trying to help.Nothing in the post you linked contradicts what I posted. The accumulated deficit itself is of course relevant to track, but a yield of return on that deficit is NA - not applicable. I am not an CPA or anything, so if there is something in my understanding of the matter that can be shown to be lacking, I am always eager to correct my own mistakes. But that is my understanding of how RORE is appropriately applied.I can see you resent my presence on this board. That is a shame, since we are all precious metal investors with a shared set of common interests. It is in our collective interest to get along and share our information and perspectives in an open and respectful manner.
I can see you resent my presence on this board. I don't resent your presence, I have a problem with being prosletyzed. You get a notion like: "Gee, wouldn't it be grand if we all played together" and the regulars here have to put up with it until you tire out and go somewhere else.It doesn't occur to you that those here don't all flock to CAPS and your blog because we've made a conscious choice not to do so.We'll survive it & I hope some actually benefit, but excuse me for having misplaced my pom-poms.Poz
"how do you get the excerpts from my post to appear in your reply as italics? :) "If you want italics put <i> to start the text and at the end use </i>, for bold use "b" instead of the "i", without the quotes. You can use upper or lower case, but don't mix them as i&I or b&B, you can use I&I and b&b for example...<i>italics</i><b>bold </b>and: <i><b>bold italics</b></i>The Fool explanation of stuff: http://www.fool.com/help/index.htm?display=community02#Styli...Since I use the Firefox browser I prefer to use the BBCodeXtra extension which allows me to highlight the text of interest, after pasting it into the draft window, and then select either the italics or bold option, saves me forgetting to put the </i> or </b> at the end of the text. Oh yeah, most of the time I put the italics or bold tags in the draft window first and the copy and paste the text between the tags. There is a choice to make in the extension so if help is needed just ask. https://addons.mozilla.org/en-US/firefox/addon/491Regards, Ken
Poz,If me taking a couple of hours out of my work day to dive into Hecla's historical filings and try to help you place the trailing landscape of deficit accumulation during the silver bull market into a broader context matches your definition of prosletyzing, then you and I in particular may not have much common ground to build from. I hope that's not the case.If I find that I'm generally not welcome in this space, then you certainly won't have to wait long for me to "tire and go somewhere else", but I get the sense that many of your fellow board regulars are more open to the notion that having two isolated communities of precious metals investors at this site benefits no one.
If me taking a couple of hours out of my work day to dive into Hecla's historical filings and try to help you place the trailing landscape of deficit accumulation during the silver bull market into a broader context matches your definition of prosletyzing, then you and I in particular may not have much common ground to build from. I hope that's not the case.Oh, poor poor pitiful me.No, that's not what I consider prosletyzing.However, what I do consider prosletyzing is getting the idea into your head that you want to bring your brand of awareness to another board, put a post up on your blog soliciting 15 to 20 of the faithful to help you in that endeavor and then trooping over here to bombard us with not only your "wisdom" but with the cheerleading of the faithful who answered the call.Poz
Poz,You're missing the point of the diplomatic mission, my man. We're not here to bombard you with anything except friendship and solidarity amid a MULTUAL exchange of ideas and perspectives. There is no logic behind an "us & them" philosophy. We can preserve the distinct spaces to suit the preferences of their respective users, but maintaining a brick wall of isolation between two artificial factions of a single community is something I don't think many members here set out do to when selecting their preferred home within the Foolish fold.
There is no logic behind an "us & them" philosophy.I agree, but that is the construct the way you described it.....but maintaining a brick wall of isolation between two artificial factions of a single community....What brick wall? That, again is a fantasy of yours, not something that exists in reality.I mean it might appeal to your writer's tendency for flair or some such, but nothing has changed except for an invasion of the CAP heads on this board.If the idea was so meritorious, why did you need to solicit 15 or 20 volunteers? Just presenting us with your brilliance should have sufficed, no?I mean the whole "legion of volunteers" thingy is kind of creepy in way. Maybe it works for you, maybe it works for everybody else but me, I don't know. But I didn't join the Fool because I was a camp follower & I don't like having it thrust upon me while I'm here. Like I said, maybe it's just me....Poz
What brick wall? That, again is a fantasy of yours, not something that exists in reality.It became clear to me after posting here the other day that many were not aware of the existence of another community of precious metals investors at the Fool, and likewise I learned that many precious metal investors over in CAPS were unaware of the existence of a Mining and Metals discussion board. If the idea was so meritorious, why did you need to solicit 15 or 20 volunteers? Just presenting us with your brilliance should have sufficed, no?The whole point was to build a bond of friendship and mutual exchange between members of the pm-investing community that were not previously familiar with each other. There's nothing creepy this effort. It is a positive development for PM investors at the Fool, and if you don't appreciate our presence you are free to ignore each and every one of us. I remains my hope that you will not do so, and that instead you will consider welcoming some new friends into your community. You don't know me yet, but I think you'll like me if you give me a chance. The same goes for the other Fools who have stepped in here to get to know you guys. I think it's time to let this particular thread rest. I look forward to our next exchange.
Whoops, if I hadn't already sold HL late in 2010 I would certainly be doing so now. Tim <hates lawsuits> 443 http://www.sbwire.com/press-releases/hecla-mining-company-ny...Hecla Mining Company (NYSE:HL) Investor Lawsuit over Certain Statements Concerning Its Lucky Friday MineA lawsuit was filed by an investor in shares of Hecla Mining Company (NYSE:HL) over alleged securities laws violations. Deadline: April 2, 2012, and NYSE: HL stockholders should contact the Shareholders Foundation.
Poz, save the effort for something you can change.It was a classic take-over.Listen to the TRat, " it is what it is ".I disagree with Christopher on grace and humility, but I will not mention this subject again.and it is likely that Christopher and I own, or have owned, many of the same goldsilver stocks. So I will start a new thread on Molycorp, Miss Moly.Ti
I will start a new thread on Molycorp, Miss Moly.I value how you think about things and I've been approach/avoidance about putting money into MCP, so I'm looking forward to reading your thoughts on the company.Poz
tipiper,You've been nothing but hostile towards me over the years on at least 3 separate occasions as documented above, when in none of those cases did I commit any offense deserving of your ire. You're right, we most certainly disagree on the definition of grace and humility.
Recommendations: 5 Dave, I know you from the METAR board. If you ever post here a reasoned analysis of a specific miner, I promise I will poop my pants in surprise.In all the years on Metar, I do not recall a single positive post on precious metals from you. If I am wrong, please post a link so I can eat crow.So... I figure that your posting over here will primarily consist of being a critic, and presenting your macroeconomic opinions. If that is the case I (and I believe I can speak for many of the regulars here) beg that, at a minimum, you bring an argument backed by data and sources other than just your opinion, especially if that opinion is provacative and argumentative.Smufty Smufty,Usually we gets along. But I maybe perceived as goring the sacred cow here. I dont own anyone anything. Neither do you. Gold and Oil etc commodities are finito. You guys are already eating crow. I just did not cook it.....mr....market is as I type........put a fork in her.your Italian cruise ship awaits.Dave
ownin the last few weeks I have been posting less.....some will be relieved.....and I decided to proof read more....but one got away....as usual.....owe....not own....Dave
The Motley Fool sent me to Vancouver to cover the conference last week.Ah, how times change. When I did freelance writing for the Fool ages ago, gold and silver were no-no topics. I was encourage to not write in these areas -- and ags too. We were also not encouraged to seek out company officials for comments. The thought was that we should use public information only.I spend a majority of my time here lurking. The content, and thought applied to content, is worth the reading time.W.D.
Best Of |
Favorites & Replies |
Start a New Board |
My Fool |
BATS data provided in real-time. NYSE, NASDAQ and NYSEMKT data delayed 15 minutes.
Real-Time prices provided by BATS. Market data provided by Interactive Data.
Company fundamental data provided by Morningstar. Earnings Estimates, Analyst Ra