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Author: wishiwaspsychic Two stars, 250 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 14292  
Subject: Re: AAPL again Date: 1/15/2013 2:02 PM
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And now the stock is under $490. I own a small position purchased at $509, and am content to wait until after earnings to make a further decision as to whether to increase the position.

The stock presently constitutes a very nice value if margins remain high and the company has any revenue growth. Similarly, if margins take a small hit but revenues continue to grow at a brisk pace, the stock also looks quite cheap. But if revenues slow and margins come under severe pressure, the earnings picture may change pretty dramatically. Moreover, given that analyst estimates are significantly higher earnings than the $11.75/share quoted during the last CC, there could be room for further blowback if AAPL "misses estimates" even as it bests its own guidance.

In a perfect world, earnings will be good, but not great, with guidance failing to impress analysts (but also not indicating an oncoming train wreck). The market will declare that AAPL is dead, the stock will drop to ~$400, and we'll be able to purchase shares in an STX type situation in which at a certain price, even if things may get ugly long-term, the weight of near-term earnings/cash flow, balance sheet strength (more AAPL than STX), and possible positive/friendly management moves (dividends, buybacks) makes for a low risk, mid to high potential return scenario.
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