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No. of Recommendations: 13
anOptimist - When the Dow reaches 12,500, IBM should be near 140. At
that point the manipulators will stop supporting the Dow stocks and
start taking profits and shorting. Eventually their selling will drive
IBM down. Even you bulls must admit that IBM will be fully price above
130. There is no upside potential for years at 140.

theMeateater - Seems to me that 140 is the median 12 month
target price.

anOptimist - If IBM's medium 12 month forecast is 140 and if IBM
reaches that level this month, then there is no upside potential for the
rest of the year--according to the bulls! So why not sell in high 130's?
If the recession continues, the earnings have to slow or turn down.

Median - 2 a : a value in an ordered set of values below and
above which there is an equal number of values or which is the
arithmetic mean of the two middle values if there is no one middle
vs. Medium - 1 a : something in a middle position b
: a middle condition or degree

Medium or Median, it really doesn't matter. The 12 month Bullish target
price is 160. The Bearish target is 111. There is a potential upside beyond 140.

anOptimist - So why not sell in high 130's? If the recession
continues, the earnings have to slow or turn down.

Will the recession continue? Will IBM Earnings slow down? TMF has an
excellent piece on B&H vs. Market Timing.

... One of the main reasons why people want to measure the
performance of the "market" outside of its component stocks is to enable
some form of market timing, a practice that has convincingly been
debunked by most academic work in recent years.

Market timing is bunk? Yep. Consider, for instance, the returns on small
company stocks between 1925 and 1992. If you had been invested in small
company stocks over this period, your average annual return would have
been 12.1%. If you sat out the single best month during that 67 year
period, you would have only made 11.2% a year. If you missed out on the
best five months, well, forget it... you would have only notched gains
of 8.5%. Finally, if you had missed the best ten months -- something all
sorts of market timers managed to do in 1995 -- you would have only
retained 6.3% annual gains, almost half of what you could have made had
you been fully invested. This data and other data like it has proved
again and again the wisdom of buying and holding stocks. ...


anOptimist - There is only so much management can do with
nonrecurring earnings. Eventually, they have to report only operating

Seems to me that most of the improvement occured on top end REVENUE
growth. Perhaps, you could refer to the recent 8K and point out the
nonrecurring earnings.

anOptimist - There will probably be no more strong rallies after this
one ends until the final bottom is reached in Sep.-Oct. 2002. My time
line never seems to change. The bear market rallies are unpredictable
but the charts and cycles still point to a next year bottom.

Not everyone agrees ....

But the stock market is telling us something here. It's telling us
the economic recovery is in sight, and closer than we think. We're not
going into recession.

That said, it's going to be a slower recovery than the market currently
predicts. The Dow, the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 need to digest the gains
of the last month and build on them. Shooting back into the stratosphere
isn't the answer. ...

.... "The probability is high that that the worst is over and that a
retest of the lows will not be necessary, yet we would prefer not to
jump on the long-term bullish bandwagon until the market can demonstrate
an ability to take out some major overhead resistance," S&P said in a
research note...

Seems to me that most people are expecting sideways movement.

anOptimist - IBM will probably see a 45-50 bottom.

Great opportunity for LTB&H investorys to buy more IBM!

Bruno the Meateater
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