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Author: Lokicious Big gold star, 5000 posts Feste Award Nominee! Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 35399  
Subject: Re: Savins Rates and Accumulation Date: 11/6/2006 2:08 PM
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Another thought about being realistic about SS and property.

I don't expect full SS to be available, and I think home equity is likely to do no better than keeping up with inflation, even after a correction for the housing market being too hot.

That doesn't mean we need to write these assets off completely, if the result of writing them off is to make aggressive investment decisions in the search of higher returns.

Estimates are that SS will be able to pay 60% of promised amounts after the Trust Fund runs out in 2040. I think actually paying off what is owed the Trust Fund by the General Fund at the intended pace will be almost impossible, politically and even financially, so there will probably be reductions a lot sooner than 2040. Nonetheless, I'd be comfortable with an estimate of 60% of promised "entitilement." In my case, the "entitlement" is about 40% of estimated expenses at age 66, so around 20-25% of expenses seems reasonable as an x factor.

Similarly, I think a reasonable projection for real equity on home and property (for me) would be around 10-15 x initial withdrawal rate.

The upshot is, if we look at the 40% savings rate example, if after retirement, SS and home equity covered the equivalent of $10,000 of the $30,000 expenses, the initial withdrawal rate would be reduced to 4.5% of the accumulation from a 3% real return, which would be sustainable retiring at 65 with a 3% real return after retirement.
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