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any way of knowing whether/how the later Updates make a material difference?

Its probably just minor tweaks to the software, probably related to obscure forms that only a small percentage of people use.

Are you expecting a refund or paying? If paying, I wouldn't worry about it - I always waited until right before the 15th to file and pay. If you are getting a refund, I wouldn't worry about it either, but you might want re-run the software on in late april to make sure it still shows the same refund. While turbotax will pay penalties due to their problems, you are still on the hook if your refund was larger than it was supposed to be (or if you pay less than you really should have).
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