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I moved our big money to fixed return a few weeks back. A couple of percentage points prematurely. I expect a lot of pullback by the end of February however, and I can only make one move a month in that account.

Meanwhile, my scans are still showing some worthy momentum micro-caps. So I'm schizophrenic on this topic.
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Meanwhile, my scans are still showing some worthy momentum micro-caps. So I'm schizophrenic on this topic.

I moved 70% of my TSP into G funds (government backed basically) last week. My trading account is almost all cash right now. I know the LTBH'ers on here are screaming that everyone should be "ALL IN" but I just feel a slump coming on. I'm thinking it will start in the next 2-4 weeks and the DOW will be down under 13k or possibly 12k most of the year. I can back up my projection on that much but my feeling is that it could get much worse. I'm just not comfortable that the market is being realistic right now.

Calabogie
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I moved 99% to G. A little prematurely, but I'm not feeling it. I'm seeing Dow predictions in the 6000 range out there for this year <Shudder>. Also 20,000 <drugs).

The smaller trading account moneys could be convinced to jump in any time, but are mostly just watching. Europe and the American Congress, muddlers you can believe in.
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Long w/about 15% cash (waiting, watching & listening)
-little over 50% LT hold (dividends)
-around 25% (small-mid cap growth)
-small % speculative (to the moon :-)

The LT and Spec I'll hold.
The small-mid cap I'll trade in and out.
I did do some portfolio cleaning today (dumped a few I had forgotten about: Mike might recognize IKAN and I'm sure Doug remembers APPY ;-)

Cal, you mentioned Netflix some time back... I hope you caught some of the ride. I wasn't watching :-(

Prediction: sell into the summer... how low she goes nobody knows... but I expect the typical rebound in the Fall. Complete rebound & a positive year?? too far out to say :-)

Things are beginning to feel normal, but that might just be because I'm back and feeling a bit of normal myself, Lol

Tye, aka SM2K
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Things are beginning to feel normal, but that might just be because I'm back and feeling a bit of normal myself, Lol

You look a mite peaked.
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The anschluss is coming.
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"If the Nazis take over Austria, I have no doubt, Herr Zeller, that you will be the entire trumpet section."

Just sayin'. :)

Could be tomorrow. Could be the next day.

"The people will come. The people will definitely come." "Don't sell the farm Ray."
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"Don't sell the farm Ray."

LOL... I've been thinking the same thing about my parents ranch out in the sticks. Safe place to hide. Mom is planning to sell as dad has past and the years are catching up w/her ability to maintain it.


Hey, SnowBawl, sounds like winter is headed your way... have you got enough of everything to survive the weekend indoors -- chips, dips, popcorn :) movies on CD [VHS] incase of communication blackout - Lol
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Southern Maryland didn't look like it was in the path, but I'll take the food supplies under consideration. It is after, all a weekend.

Don't sell the farm, Mom.
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Note to Dow. Admit defeat, roll over and plunge. The thing is hanging on like an octopus orgy.
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Hey Guys,

If you're talking about the TSP fund, I believe 2 Interfund Transfers are allowed per month. And after that, you can do another IFT to the G fund in the same calendar month. They made this rule effective May 1, 2008. Unless there's a revision to this rule that I don't know about, this rule still stands. See: https://www.tsp.gov/PDF/bulletins/08-4.pdf. Page 1 & 2 explain it pretty well. When moving lots of shares around, twice per month is a lot more flexible than one.

One time I called into a radio show called the Mutual Fund Show to ask about swing trading strategies using the TSP. The host, Adam Bold, pretty much chewed me out for even THINKING about trying to time the market. How dare I! .... As you can probably tell, I don't listen to that show any more.
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Well that's a whole new kettle of ballgames! Thanks. The little woman just jacked her contribution up too. No pressure.

Still waiting for the market to come back to me. It appears primed to do so. Somebody explain how in hell Congress takes next week off with Armageddon scheduled for March 1st? They are either very cocky or insanely stupid. Anyway, I get against them. And Europe, which is also fizzling.
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"bet" against them. Stand down, Secret Service. I foment no rebellion before its time.
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So if you're thinking Armageddon on/about Mar 1, then how will you position yourself in the TSP fund? I'm thinking 'F' and 'I' will dipsy-doo just like 'C' and 'S'. Historically they have, anyway. The only think left is the 'G' fund, as cash is not an option in the TSP. That's quite ironic to think of 'G' as the safe haven, as the U.S. Govt's ability to pay its debts is at the heart of this matter.

I'd like to know your thoughts.
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Thoughts on...

--the TSP fund?
--'F' and 'I' ??
--'C' and 'S' ??
--the 'G' fund ??
--U.S. Govt's ability to pay its debts??

... got a chart :)Lol


Wall Street cannot afford to let the gov't (the world currency) crash, just like the gov't could not afford to let Wall Street crash.

Its all politics and hopefully the chart will reveal fear (sell) and enthusiasm (buy). And **time** will allow us to profit.


SM2K
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G it is.
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So if you're thinking Armageddon on/about Mar 1, then how will you position yourself in the TSP fund? I'm thinking 'F' and 'I' will dipsy-doo just like 'C' and 'S'. Historically they have, anyway. The only think left is the 'G' fund, as cash is not an option in the TSP. That's quite ironic to think of 'G' as the safe haven, as the U.S. Govt's ability to pay its debts is at the heart of this matter.

I have 70% in "G" right now and 10% each in "C", "S" and "I" but I may pull those down to 5% each. In fact I think I'll do that right now.

I'm just not comfortable with where the market is and I have no idea how it can sustain itself at this point. As of April I'll be dropping 20% of my salary (furloughed 1 day per week) so I'm getting very conservative on anything I do right now. Thankfully my LQA (living quarters allowance) won't be affected and I've been told that my PA (Post Allowance) won't be going down.

It's odd because it won't really affect me that much but I'm acting like I'm still a young kid living paycheck to paycheck. I tell everyone I don't worry about spending money because men in my family usually don't live that long but old habits die hard I guess. :-)

I really feel bad for young people who are just starting in government at the lower GS levels. They're going to have a rough time of it when the government cuts their pay by 20%.

Calabogie
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Yup, it's bad Karma. The number of civilian casualties is enormous. It will hit the unemployment figures if it goes there.

IMO bulls are full of doodoo at this point. There's no impetus on the horizon to boost the market. Although I can find dozens of talking heads that are full bull on buying the 3-5% correction they see coming. I was thinking more like 30%. Lol.
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This may be the worst market disaster to ever have a date attached to it. And I get a dozen emails a day imploring me to load up on stock, and don't let the naysayers blow up my plan. One gnome went as far as to say Sequestration would BOOST the market, because other countries would see how serious we were about controlling our costs. Not the new credit downgrade the ratings services already have teed up on their distribution out basket.

I would be cheerfully happy to be 100% wrong and have this nightmare pass without a ripple. I suggest institutionalization for anybody who bet actual money on that outcome. Or much, anyway.
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When the Dow goes awry,
Like a burnt pizza pie,
That's amore!
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The markets may finish the day up. I think I shall then rob a bank, because their bullets can't hurt me, even if their guards can see me.

Seriously, WTH?
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Seriously, WTH?


Either people are not paying attention, or the brokerage

salesmen have a great pitch.
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