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Author: spinning Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 726533  
Subject: Re: Antarctica not warming Date: 2/17/2007 9:15 PM
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Are you seriously suggesting that all of New York except for Manhattan would be warming?

And that this would repeat in all 99 other places in North America? Shame on you. You know no science, and certainly no statistics.


The author states:
"It's hard to see a global warming signal from the mainland of Antarctica right now," he said. "Part of the reason is that there is a lot of variability there.


By variability he means that some weather stations are warmer, others are colder, on some days and the other way around on other days. Weather fluctuates a lot, no surprise there. Any signal of warming or not is the result of averaging over a lot of variability. The larger the variability, and the smaller the number of measuring stations, the more uncertainty there is in the average. This is basic statistics, and is the point the author is making.

The larger issue is that this is the scientific method at work. Here is a respected scientist looking at the actual data and telling it like it is. There is no censorship or ostracism. It will be spun many ways for various purposes, but in the end the truth will win out. There are always loose ends in science, usually they get tied up neatly, sometimes, but rarely, they result in a paradigm shift. Right now, Antarctic temperatures seem to be a loose end. Will they lead to an overturning of our view of climate? Probably not. But maybe.

Should we plan our futures based on the hope that the current admittedly incomplete understanding of climate is wrong? Or do we insure ourselves in case it is correct?
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