No. of Recommendations: 16
As a person in the early stages of retirement savings, who does expect about 8% returns, I have to ask, is he serious? Why exactly would that valuation be impossible? The rise from 66 to 16,000 from 1900 until now is the exact same “unbelievable” kind of change, not to mention BRK’s own “impossible” valuation currently. It just seems like a complete 180 from every other thing I’ve heard him say, any thoughts?

He's talking specifically about pension funds here. The DOW grew at 5.3% annually last century plus 2% dividends. If it continues about the same rate of growth it will be way less than 24,000,000 by the end of this century. 5.3% growth plus 2% dividends is much less than the 10% growth pension managers say they are planning on. Additionally, most pension funds have positions in bonds, which have a lower CAGR, so the equity portion has to perform at even a higher rate to make up for it. Not likely to happen. Hence his warning.
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