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Author: TMFEldrehad Big gold star, 5000 posts CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 8437  
Subject: Re: Top ten players all have less than 10 picks Date: 9/13/2006 1:19 AM
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As it is now if two people have 50% accuracy and one picks 100 stocks and one picks 10 stocks, the one with 100 stocks will have a higher ranking.

Actually, the way I understand the recently thawed mathematician's machinations, both of these players will hold the exact same percentile ranking in accuracy. The number of picks makes a difference at nominal accuracies above and below 50%, but at exactly 50%, how many picks one has doesn't matter one bit.

I going to do my best to stay away from the geeky math, but the short answer is - it's harder to be 100% right over 100 picks than it is to be 100% right over 10 picks, and the new accuracy rules reflect that. With regard to being right 50% of the time, well, that's a 50/50 shot by blind guessing alone whether one has 10 or 100 picks - since both are equally easy, again, both will carry the same weight in accuracy under the new rules.


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