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Asserting this does not make it true, Al. You have zero knowledge of how the split was obtained.

I must have misunderstood your answer to my question upthread. I asked whether it was random or whether you got to choose the composition of the urn. You said that you got to fill the urn - I took that to mean that you selected the composition of the balls. Your subsequent answers also suggested that you chose the split of balls.

If the composition of the urn is truly random, not your choice, then the two scenarios are, in fact, equivalent. My comments were based on the statements that the split was chosen by you.

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