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I presently have 50 thousand in my 401K it is in Vanguard Instituti0onal Index, this is the only index fund available to me. I am saving up to start a Roth. I could start one now but thought it would be best to want till I had the years max saved up to save on that much quaterly fees. So what I am looking for are suggestions on what Vanguard fund would be the best for balance for my 401K.

As a little mopre background I wil be retiring in 11 years with a small to medium size pension.

Thanks

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Read some good books on trading. Study CANSLIM, and read William O'Neil's book. Read stuff by Alexander Elder, such as "Trading for a Living". Look at Achelis on Technical Analysis. Go to a free INVESTools seminar - they sell the best trading software I have ever found (www.investools.com). Listen to Cramer on CNBC at 6:00 ET (or later for a rerun).

Develop a trading discipline so that you can make money in the market trading stocks or ETFs.

Understand that there are times to be in the market and times to be out of it, or to be short. Look at www.timingcube.com to see examples, if you want to trade ETF indices.

Ignore the ignorant people on this board that just want you to buy index funds. I have never seen so many people who know so little say so much. Mediocracy finds comfort in things like the Efficient Market Theory, but anybody who is reasonably energetic can certainly beat an index like the S&P.
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>> Ignore the ignorant people on this board that just want you to buy index funds. I have never seen so many people who know so little say so much. Mediocracy finds comfort in things like the Efficient Market Theory, but anybody who is reasonably energetic can certainly beat an index like the S&P. <<

Unacceptably reckless advice for someone who only has $50K and is just getting started by their own admission.

I have no problem with people who have enough money getting the feel for active trading with 5% of their money, then 10%, then 20% and then some with their money once they know what they're doing and if they are successful with it. If you're good at it, you have many years to build a lot of wealth, but it t akes almost NO time to lose it if you're not prepared.

But to tell a relative beginner to "ignore" buy-and-hold indexing, and to be insulting and arrogant enough to call them "ignorant," well, that's pretty bad.

Some people CAN be successful active traders. To suggest that people drop their buy-and-hold indexing to completely pursue active trading when they can't afford to lose much is financial malpractice. And not everyone is looking for a home run every time at bat. Some people are in the position to accept a lot of singles and double and cut down the number of triple plays.

#29
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Ignore the ignorant people on this board that just want you to buy index funds.

Even the world's greatest investor (Warren Buffett) recommends index funds for most people. No offense, but I would listen to Warren Buffett *LONG* before I would listen to you.
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But to tell a relative beginner to "ignore" buy-and-hold indexing, and to be insulting and arrogant enough to call them "ignorant," well, that's pretty bad.

That's an understatement.
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Mediocracy finds comfort in things like the Efficient Market Theory, but anybody who is reasonably energetic can certainly beat an index like the S&P. <?i>

I guess that means that the managers of 90% or more of mutual funds and virtually every financial planner/broker must be a dumb, unenergetic slob. Of course, I've always thougth this, but it's nice to see you confirm it with you uniformed and surely ignorant opinion.
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> I guess that means that the managers of 90% or more of mutual funds and virtually every financial planner/broker must be a dumb, unenergetic slob.

Nope... First off, mutual fund managers must take some of your money to pay themselves. That in and of itself creates some "friction" and makes it more difficult to beat the market. The other thing is that mutual funds, hedge funds, and pension funds ARE the market for all intents and purposes. I don't think you or I buying or selling 100 shares of XYZ or ABC really make much of a difference to anyone other than ourselves. Fidelity or Vanguard buying or selling $5 million worth of shares moves the earth. It's hard for them to do it quickly and more importantly, to do it undetected. Because of those reasons, you and I can adopt slightly different techniques than pros do.

I would never say it's easy to beat the averages as I am relatively new to the game and have not made oodles of money, but I would say the biggest reasons for not beating the averages are:

1) Not putting in the time or effort (laziness or indifference)
2) Bad luck
3) EXCESSIVE trading
4) Having EXHORBITANT amounts of money to invest (in which case, getting average return on millions/billions of dollars probably won't kill you).

Just my two cents...

Illini2001
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Illini,

I believe that's an accurate valuation of the worth of your observations.

db
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There's another reason why odds are in your favor if you want to beat market averages established by open end funds. When the market is up, their funds are doing well, money floods in, and they must buy. When the market drops, disgruntled investors want their money back, even with a loss, and they must sell. Thus fund managers must buy high and sell low. Plus as you said, they have to make trades in large enough amounts that they move the market.
YOU control when you buy and sell, and you can do better than the masses. YOU can buy low and sell high much more easily than a fund manager.
Best wishes, Chris
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I presently have 50 thousand in my 401K it is in Vanguard Instituti0onal Index, this is the only index fund available to me. I am saving up to start a Roth. I could start one now but thought it would be best to want till I had the years max saved up to save on that much quaterly fees. So what I am looking for are suggestions on what Vanguard fund would be the best for balance for my 401K.

With only 11 years to go before retirement, it's time to start slowly moving more of your money out of stocks and into bonds. With your RIRA money, you should consider a bond index fund or TIPS bond fund. In some ways it's a bad time to be moving into bond funds because interest rates are rising, but you need more security than 100% stocks can provide.

Will you be getting any social security on top of the pension? Have you sat down and run the numbers to figure out how much money you will need to live on in retirement? Without more details, I can't say much more, but my first impression is that 11 years is really optimistic or you're going to have to really tighten your belt in retirement. You might need to look into relocating -- selling your house and getting a small condo to make your retirement happen. You might have to work part time.

Again, I think you need to really look at the numbers to see what type of retirement you'll be able to afford in only 11 years. Try to figure out how much that pension is going to be worth. Find out about social security. You'll be able to retire, you may have to significantly reduce your standard of living though.

billyturtle
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Will you be getting any social security on top of the pension? Have you sat down and run the numbers to figure out how much money you will need to live on in retirement? Without more details, I can't say much more, but my first impression is that 11 years is really optimistic or you're going to have to really tighten your belt in retirement. You might need to look into relocating -- selling your house and getting a small condo to make your retirement happen. You might have to work part time.

Yes, I will be getting Social Security. With Social Security and the Pension They should total 20K a year. According to my figgers i should be able to have a total of over 300K saved up in the RIRA, the 401K and selling off the rest of my company stock. One nice thing that makes all of this possible is the company I work for now matches 100% to 7%. And with the 300K fiure I am not even calculating the compounding interest which will be acuring.

At present I live on 36K a year and am paying off debts and getting things lined up. I live in the Panhandle of Texas which is about as inexpensive a place to live as you can find. My house payments, for a 2005 square foot home is $560.00 a month. That would be hard to beat.

Again, I think you need to really look at the numbers to see what type of retirement you'll be able to afford in only 11 years. Try to figure out how much that pension is going to be worth. Find out about social security. You'll be able to retire, you may have to significantly reduce your standard of living though.

I think if there isn't another market crash I should be able to achive this and maintain the same lifestyle that i have today.

Thanks for the RIRA suggestions. Much appreciated.
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I think if there isn't another market crash I should be able to achive this and maintain the same lifestyle that i have today.

What do you do if there IS another market crash? (Its all about managing risk, after all.)

There are other risks:

Inflation: What if there is no market crash but inflation really takes off?

The pension plan is terminated: I know people this has happened to. Pensions are at the sole discretion of the company. (social contracts be dam*ed, there's always the fine print...)

Frankly, I'm saving as much as my 58-yr-old bones allow and not counting on any pension plan or Social Security. I'm very worried about medical insurance in the future. If any of them exist when I do retire I'll consider it a windfall.
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What do you do if there IS another market crash? (Its all about managing risk, after all.)

There are other risks:

Inflation: What if there is no market crash but inflation really takes off?

The pension plan is terminated: I know people this has happened to. Pensions are at the sole discretion of the company. (social contracts be dam*ed, there's always the fine print...)

Frankly, I'm saving as much as my 58-yr-old bones allow and not counting on any pension plan or Social Security. I'm very worried about medical insurance in the future. If any of them exist when I do retire I'll consider it a windfall


I understand and agree with you. That is why I am trying to cover for amnarket trouble and am saving like crazy. All of my calculations on how much I will have as well do not include the interest or market gains. It is strictly what I or the company match is, and I am aware the match could disappear.

i am use to getting by on little, LBYM has always been my lifestlye. I have never gone anywhere, and I n=mean anywhere on a vacation or owned a new car in my life. I am also am figgering on a SWR of 3%.

You do what you can do and then make the best of what happens.
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Develop a trading discipline so that you can make money in the market trading stocks or ETFs.

Good advice. Too bad it's completely impossible for most people to stick to it.

It takes a certain mentality to be a trader -- to utterly shut down your emotions of greed and fear.

Most people can't do it. And so they wind up panicking when they lose money and doing the absolute worst thing; or wind up getting greedy when they're gaining money and watch all their gains evaporate.

Joelxwil is a trader, and a good one. It's in his interest to get as many people into trading as possible, as that will increase the population of suckers that he can take money from.

One day you may be as good a trader as he is. The question is, how much money will you lose before then -- if that day ever comes?
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When the market is up, their funds are doing well, money floods in, and they must buy. When the market drops, disgruntled investors want their money back, even with a loss, and they must sell.

But this churn only hurts those who are just chasing returns. It has no effect on the fund's long-term performance or on buy-and-holders, and almost no effect on people doing dollar cost averaging.
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How many daytraders are as wealthy as Warren Buffett?
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How many daytraders are as wealthy as Warren Buffett?

Day trading is more gambling than investing, with the same general results.
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How many daytraders are as wealthy as Warren Buffett?


+++
+++

Better question:

How many __[filled the blank]__ are as wealthy as Warren Buffett?



MORE Better question:

Why isn't Warren Buffett retired?



sunray
retired
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Warren Buffett doesn't manage an open-ended fund!
And the open-ended fund managers, on the whole, don't daytrade. Some funds do have 100% turnover in a year, however.
None of those managers are as rich as Buffett. Some of them start out with fund companies and then start their own. The first year they tend to do well.
Best wishes, Chris
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And sometimes old Warren doesn't even keep up with "unmanaged" indexes!!!!!!!!!!

Warren has been complaining for years that his own stock is overvalued and has advised that people not buy it.
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