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Author: PosFCF Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 461138  
Subject: Re: Fasten Your Seatbelts Date: 3/29/2013 9:19 AM
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At first I thought it was just the furious musings of an imaginative mind but now I am haunted by his insistence that "no other theory can explain the facts before us."

I have a theory that I put forth privately before this Cyprus crisis occurred (or at least before it burst open).

I told a friend of mine that when Japan actively pursued weakening the value of the Yen that Germany, who stood to lose much in exports, would not stand idly by and allow themselves to lose market share.

I then sat down one afternoon and tried to figure out how Germany, who was only one of 16 or 17 Euro-member nations could weaken the Euro. The solution that flashed before my eyes was the insight that soon Germany would take a hard-line position with the next Euro country needing financial assistance. The line would be so firm as to once again call the viability of the Euro into question. This would lead to a weaker Euro and, Viola!, they would again be competitive with the devalued Yen.

Now, don't get me wrong, Germany does not want the Euro to fail, they just want the world to believe it might.

Why doesn't Germany want the Euro to fail? Because if Germany went back to the Deutsch Mark, it would immediately become one of the strongest currencies in the world thus defeating the whole exercise in the first place.

So my vote is that Japan's weakening of the Yen has caused Germany to respond in a way that crushes Cyprus and calls into question the viability of the Euro. Anyone notice the Euro plunging in value lately?

Poz
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