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Author: rtichy Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool Global Fool Motley Fool One Everlasting Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 62  
Subject: Re: Gold Index Fund vs. Foreighn Currency Index Date: 4/11/2008 11:17 AM
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At this point in time I would prefer the commodity index to the currency index. If you play a currency you are mixing that country's central bank actions and our country's central bank actions together and hoping that they will work together for your investment. So there are 2 (political) institutions at work, neither of which is actually interested in the outcome you are looking for. With the currency play, you would have to worry about central banks working together to strengthen the US dollar (they do that), or trying to solve the liquidity crisis together, etc. Those things would work against you, while you would likely watch the price of gold go up at the same time.

If you invest in a commodity like gold or oil, then the world market demand for these commodities is being weighed against the supply of the commodity, and you are playing against the US Fed, who is cutting the dollar aggressively and devaluing our currency. It seems more likely to me that world demand for commodities will continue up for a time and/or that the US Fed will continue to print money. It only takes one of those things to happen if the other is flat for you to get a positive return; if both are happening, then you get an even better return.

I mention oil with gold because I have a slight bias against gold because it is not actually super useful in industrial, finance, or information economies, so I feel in the longest run you can imagine, gold will be a loser.
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