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Author: U893 Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 8884  
Subject: AT&T Date: 1/4/2013 11:22 AM
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D Fish's Dividend Champions shows AT&T payout at 234%

How can T do that?

Isn't there a high probability of a future dividend cut?

Jerry - likes T's yield but is it too good to be true?
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Author: PinotPete Three stars, 500 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 7752 of 8884
Subject: Re: AT&T Date: 1/4/2013 2:37 PM
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Jerry,

I'm not sure what you're looking at: I show dfish's spreadsheet with a 5.34% yield. BTW, I've owned T for a number of years and the div. has been nice and predictable.

Best to you,
Pete

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Author: tjscott0 Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 7753 of 8884
Subject: Re: AT&T Date: 1/4/2013 2:42 PM
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http://www.dividendchannel.com/history/?symbol=t

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Author: desertdaveataol Big funky green star, 20000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 7754 of 8884
Subject: Re: AT&T Date: 1/4/2013 2:45 PM
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D Fish's Dividend Champions shows AT&T payout at 234%

Where do you see that?

I don't even see the numbers 234 anywhere on T's line.

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Author: dfish Big red star, 1000 posts Feste Award Nominee! Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 7755 of 8884
Subject: Re: AT&T Date: 1/4/2013 3:04 PM
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Look at column S, which shows 233.77, which means that its $1.80/share annual dividend is 233.77% of its trailing twelve months' earnings per share of 77¢.
However, when I look at the analysts' estimates page on Yahoo...
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ae?s=T+Analyst+Estimates
...what I see is that the company is expected to earn about $2.38 per share this year and $2.54 in 2014, and that the "Year ago EPS" is listed at $2.20 per share. So I would conclude that the 77¢ EPS figure included one-time charges and that the $2.20 figure was operating earnings, which were more than the $1.76 per share paid in dividends in 2012. Using those numbers, the payout ratio would be 80%. (1.76/2.20)

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Author: dfish Big red star, 1000 posts Feste Award Nominee! Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 7756 of 8884
Subject: Re: AT&T Date: 1/4/2013 3:08 PM
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Just to add to my previous message...the 77¢ per share earnings for the trailing twelve months (TTM) can't yet represent the 2012 calendar year, so it must refer to the four quarters ending 9/30/12, which would be the latest reported results (and apparently includes one-time charges, possibly even recorded in the fourth quarter of 2011).

This is a great example of why the CCC is just a starting point and potential investors need to do more research before making a buyin g decision.

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Author: U893 Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 7757 of 8884
Subject: Re: AT&T Date: 1/4/2013 7:34 PM
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David - Thanks for your reply.

After making that post I did what I should have done in the first place - Google: How can AT&T dividend be more than earnings?

Several articles pointed out dividends can be better compared to FCF ie cash flow minus capital expenses. A 11/13/12 SeekingAlpha article indicated AT&Ts dividend is about 50-70% of their FCF...

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1004171-at-t-s-5-dividend-is...

I do use your Div Champs SS as a starting point to pick dividend payers. T is the first one I have considered with a payout ratio over 100% hence time for me to learn what's happening.

Thank you for compiling all those numbers in one SS where I can easily compare issues.

Regards - Jerry

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Author: BruceCM Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 7762 of 8884
Subject: Re: AT&T Date: 1/10/2013 6:32 PM
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Per T's 3Q 10Q, with the columns showing, left to right, 3Q12, 3Q11, first 9 months 2012, first 9 months 2011 (sorry, I don't know how to line the colunms up)

Net Income 3,701 3,686 11,318 10,812
Less: Net Income Attributable to Noncontrolling Interest (66) (63) (197) (190)
Net Income Attributable to AT&T $ 3,635 $ 3,623 $ 11,121 $ 10,622
Basic Earnings Per Share Attributable to AT&T $ 0.63 $ 0.61 $ 1.90 $ 1.79
Diluted Earnings Per Share Attributable to AT&T $ 0.63 $ 0.61 $ 1.90 $ 1.79
Weighted Average Number of Common Shares
Outstanding – Basic (in millions) 5,771 5,936 5,848 5,931
Weighted Average Number of Common Shares
Outstanding – with Dilution (in millions) 5,792 5,954 5,869 5,950
Dividends Declared Per Common Share $ 0.44 $ 0.43 $ 1.32 $ 1.29

So based on the first 3 quarters, the dividend to earnings POR is $1.32/$1.90 = 69.5%

BruceM

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Author: Fuma102 Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 7763 of 8884
Subject: Re: AT&T Date: 1/11/2013 6:30 AM
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click on the "table Data" tab (first check box above "post this reply" , and is immediately below the submit message tab)

click preview message after pasted from excel.

add some spaces/tabs as needed.

repreview.

add some spaces or tabs.

repreview.

submit message!

only problem is that any comments you make get posted as one long individual line.

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Author: haywool Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 7764 of 8884
Subject: Re: AT&T Date: 1/11/2013 7:21 AM
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... or another way to post things in the format that you want is:

when you get to the section you want formatted YOUR WAY, put in pre before the start and /pre when you finish that section ... be sure to enclose each pre and /pre command in the < and > marks. That should line up your columns the way you type them.

This is column No 1  and This is column No 2
forever never
once in a while not now
always seldom
I quit You quit



When you finish, be sure to hit "Preview Message" just to check it. If it ain't right, hit "Edit Message" then make your corrections. "Preview" it again before submitting.


Rich (haywool)

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Author: BruceCM Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 8108 of 8884
Subject: Re: AT&T Date: 6/17/2013 10:03 PM
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I got to wondering if a portfolio of only PREFERRED STOCK could provide long term, reliable dividends that can somehow be used to provide annually 
inflation adjusted income throughout all retirement years. The answer is, yes it can, with a couple of limitations:

First, the primary objective must be reliable and annually growing income. This must be invested dollars that the retiree does not require
 for something else. 

Next, the retiree must be comfortable that preferreds are not likely going to be redeemed. This will be assured (but not guaranteed) through rising
 interest rates.

Next, preferreds must be chosen with low default (dividend suspension) risk. To me, this means no finacials, including mREITs, no micro-preferreds
and definitely excluding those retail closed end funds whose debt can be generated selling convertible 'preferred' securities or  other such junk.
Nope...this must be tier I preferred equity from REITs, insurance companies, utilities and any other company with real assets and real revenue
generating ability. But to hedge default risk, the retiree will hold from 20 to 30 preferreds. The only advantage to doing this in a taxable account
is that some of the preferred dividends will be 'qualifying', meaning a lower tax rate...at least through 2013.

It is assumed the retiree will have an initial 4% payout rate (simulating a 4% safe withdrawal rate), that will grow each year by a fixed 3%
 to allow for inflation. Here is the chart:

preferred yield	     7.0%			
investment amount	 $100,000 			
required first year	4.0%			
Initial annual need	 $4,000 			
Annual increase (inflation)	3%			
				
		   preferred stock	cummulative
year #	income rq    dividend paid	Excess Dividend	excess cash
				
1	 $4,000 	 $7,000 	 $3,000 	 $3,000 
2	 $4,120 	 $7,000 	 $2,880 	 $5,880 
3	 $4,244 	 $7,000 	 $2,756 	 $8,636 
4	 $4,371 	 $7,000 	 $2,629 	 $11,265 
5	 $4,502 	 $7,000 	 $2,498 	 $13,763 
6	 $4,637 	 $7,000 	 $2,363 	 $16,126 
7	 $4,776 	 $7,000 	 $2,224 	 $18,350 
8	 $4,919 	 $7,000 	 $2,081 	 $20,431 
9	 $5,067 	 $7,000 	 $1,933 	 $22,364 
10	 $5,219 	 $7,000 	 $1,781 	 $24,144 
11	 $5,376 	 $7,000 	 $1,624 	 $25,769 
12	 $5,537 	 $7,000 	 $1,463 	 $27,232 
13	 $5,703 	 $7,000 	 $1,297 	 $28,529 
14	 $5,874 	 $7,000 	 $1,126 	 $29,655 
15	 $6,050 	 $7,000 	 $950 	 $30,604 
16	 $6,232 	 $7,000 	 $768 	 $31,372 
17	 $6,419 	 $7,000 	 $581 	 $31,954 
18	 $6,611 	 $7,000 	 $389 	 $32,342 
19	 $6,810 	 $7,000 	 $190 	 $32,533 
20	 $7,014 	 $7,000 	 $(14)	 $32,519 
21	 $7,224 	 $7,000 	 $(224)	 $32,294 
22	 $7,441 	 $7,000 	 $(441)	 $31,853 
23	 $7,664 	 $7,000 	 $(664)	 $31,188 
24	 $7,894 	 $7,000 	 $(894)	 $30,294 
25	 $8,131 	 $7,000 	 $(1,131)	 $29,163 
26	 $8,375 	 $7,000 	 $(1,375)	 $27,788 
27	 $8,626 	 $7,000 	 $(1,626)	 $26,161 
28	 $8,885 	 $7,000 	 $(1,885)	 $24,276 
29	 $9,152 	 $7,000 	 $(2,152)	 $22,125 
30	 $9,426 	 $7,000 	 $(2,426)	 $19,698 
31	 $9,709 	 $7,000 	 $(2,709)	 $16,989 
32	 $10,000 	 $7,000 	 $(3,000)	 $13,989 
33	 $10,300 	 $7,000 	 $(3,300)	 $10,689 
34	 $10,609 	 $7,000 	 $(3,609)	 $7,079 
35	 $10,928 	 $7,000 	 $(3,928)	 $3,152 
36	 $11,255 	 $7,000 	 $(4,255)	 $(1,104)
37	 $11,593 	 $7,000 	 $(4,593)	 $(5,697)
38	 $11,941 	 $7,000 	 $(4,941)	 $(10,638)
39	 $12,299 	 $7,000 	 $(5,299)	 $(15,937)
40	 $12,668 	 $7,000 	 $(5,668)	 $(21,605)
41	 $13,048 	 $7,000 	 $(6,048)	 $(27,653)
42	 $13,440 	 $7,000 	 $(6,440)	 $(34,093)
43	 $13,843 	 $7,000 	 $(6,843)	 $(40,936)
44	 $14,258 	 $7,000 	 $(7,258)	 $(48,194)
45	 $14,686 	 $7,000 	 $(7,686)	 $(55,879)
46	 $15,126 	 $7,000 	 $(8,126)	 $(64,006)
47	 $15,580 	 $7,000 	 $(8,580)	 $(72,586)
48	 $16,048 	 $7,000 	 $(9,048)	 $(81,634)
49	 $16,529 	 $7,000 	 $(9,529)	 $(91,163)
50	 $17,025 	 $7,000 	 $(10,025)	 $(101,187)

Note that the excess over the 7% yield for the first (and subsequent years) is transferred to a 'cash holding account'. This will be held through
about year 19, when the fixed 7% yield will be required to pay the annual inflation adjusted income that has grown to that point. From the next year on, 
cash will be withdrawn from the cash reserve account to provide the annual inflation increase. Assuming NO investment return on the cash account, 
this inflation growing income will last through year 35, at which point the annual income will drop to the 7% yield. So if the retiree begins this
at age 60, this would get him/her through age 95.

Clearly, if interest rates do drop back down, some of these preferreds will get redeemed, and the 35 year survival will decline...but this is one
of the risks of doing this.

Oh...and as a bonus...the annual all-in expense ratio will be zero.

BruceM


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