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Author: TMFHelical Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Coverage Fool CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 598  
Subject: Re: So how come..... Date: 1/12/2013 11:55 AM
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beetlecat,

GMCR discussion is still semi-active in a few newsletters, where there are recommendations on how to hold it (a mix of bullish and bearish opinions).

I started on this board (pre getting my username TMF'd and any newsletter positions) and enjoyed a good portion of the bull run in the stock. It was (is) a great product with clear customer appeal, and well worth owning as the product availability spread through outlets and through the country.

I sold my last shares in 2010 at ~$30. Early perhaps but not imprudent as it did come back to that price. The accelerating growth story is largely over. I thought that was pretty clear when their own investor presentations showed they were near saturation across the US and the growth in outlet counts was slowing. Turn out I was too early, as they continued to expand in terms of 'shelf space' in existing outlets, but not that is in the past as well. GMCR should still enjoy increased adoption and has international options, but it now needs to be evaluated as an ongoing operating company, not a growth story. Operationally, there are still accounting question, there is increased competition, and price pressure on the highest margin items (Kcups). Too hard to say where this story will go for me, so I chose to just not own it. Great company at one time, and I got a great run out of it. But, I'm not married to it, so better to look for clearer investment options.

Good luck with this one. It is a tough holding to get right from here i.e. there will likely be periods where each side can claim to be right. For the buy-to-hold point of view, to much uncertainty for my taste.

Ralph
Helical Investor
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