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No. of Recommendations: 3
This update is based on the latest VL results as of Monday’s data release in the post title. At this time, no Dow30 stocks are trading below their benchmark 
downside price target. Note, because there is not even a single stock below its downside price target at the end of 2016 I am not following any BI picks
into 2017. I will be making a post from time-to-time showing the Dow30 picks and their downside targets throughout the year. If you are interested in 
following along with this methodology against a broader range of stocks outside of the Dow30, my picks are posted in the Fool CAPS on a live basis.


Market Valuation (Dow 30): 
The market continued its upward push in December to even higher levels at year’s end. The market remains very overvalued.
Downside: -45%
Upside:   -19%

Long Buy Rules: 
I am using the following TTD rules for Long position considerations:
1. Year-over-Year EPS growth must > 10%, which are the next 4Q / current quarter + previous 3 quarters earnings results
2. VL 3-5 Year price appreciation > average price appreciation of the market
3. When calculating ROE and BV figures, ignore years when are negative, but must have at least 7+ years of data to be 
   included in final consideration
4. Avoid erratic ROE ratios, that is where they are > 2std deviations = Curr ROE > (10 Year Avg + 2 * Std Dev)
5. ROE and BV current figures must be updated by VL to be considered.

Summary of Results

	VL	        Current	ROE/BV	Down	Up     %<10Y   %<10Y	EPS	Div    3-5Y L 3-5Y H VL 3-5Y   ROE	
Ticker	Date	        Price	Updated	Price	Price	Down	Down4Qs	Delta   Yield   VL $	VL $	% Chg	<2STD	Name
CAT	19-May-17	104	TRUE	40	66	158%	205%	0%	 3.0 	105	145	20%	FALSE	Caterpillar Inc.
JNJ	19-May-17	137	TRUE	81	104	68%	75%	12%	 2.5 	145	175	17%	FALSE	Johnson & Johnson
MCD	26-May-17	154	FALSE				88%	7%	 2.5 	140	170	0%	TRUE	McDonald's Corp.
CVX	2-Jun-17	104	TRUE	34	48	206%	235%	184%	 4.2 	125	150	31%	FALSE	Chevron Corp.
XOM	2-Jun-17	81.28	TRUE	40	53	104%	168%	69%	 3.8 	100	120	35%	FALSE	Exxon Mobil Corp.
BA	9-Jun-17	200	FALSE					-6%	 3.1 	185	225	2%	TRUE	Boeing
TRV	9-Jun-17	128	TRUE	70	93	82%	86%	-4%	 2.2 	130	160	13%	FALSE	Travelers Cos.
UNH	9-Jun-17	185	TRUE	100	150	86%	112%	15%	 1.6 	160	195	-4%	FALSE	UnitedHealth Group
VZ	16-Jun-17	45.77	FALSE					0%	 5.1 	65	80	59%	TRUE	Verizon Communic.
CSCO	16-Jun-17	32.29	TRUE	26	38	26%	23%	2%	 3.6 	35	45	25%	FALSE	Cisco Systems
HD	23-Jun-17	152	FALSE				102%	11%	 2.6 	160	195	14%	TRUE	Home Depot
PG	23-Jun-17	89.35	TRUE	60	78	48%	52%	3%	 3.1 	90	110	12%	FALSE	Procter & Gamble
INTC	30-Jun-17	34.08	TRUE	29	44	18%	20%	1%	 3.2 	45	55	45%	FALSE	Intel Corp.
AAPL	30-Jun-17	146	TRUE	90	167	63%	53%	15%	 1.8 	40	210	25%	FALSE	Apple Inc.
IBM	30-Jun-17	155	TRUE	115	156	36%	33%	-1%	 4.0 	165	200	18%	FALSE	Int'l Business Mach.
DD	7-Apr-17	81.18	TRUE	44	68	84%	103%	2%	 2.0 	70	85	-4%	FALSE	Du Pont
MRK	7-Apr-17	65.91	TRUE	40	58	65%	69%	4%	 2.9 	70	85	17%	FALSE	Merck & Co.
PFE	7-Apr-17	34.04	TRUE	21	28	65%	60%	18%	 3.8 	40	50	32%	FALSE	Pfizer Inc.
GE	14-Apr-17	27.65	TRUE	20	30	38%	48%	15%	 3.5 	40	55	72%	FALSE	Gen'l Electric
MMM	14-Apr-17	213	TRUE	115	160	85%	99%	7%	 2.2 	210	255	9%	FALSE	3M Company
UTX	14-Apr-17	122	TRUE	79	110	54%	51%	0%	 2.3 	140	170	26%	FALSE	United Technologies
GS	14-Apr-17	221	TRUE	132	227	68%	95%	9%	 1.4 	275	370	46%	FALSE	Goldman Sachs
KO	21-Apr-17	45.45	TRUE	31	39	48%	48%	-2%	 3.3 	45	55	10%	FALSE	Coca-Cola
WMT	28-Apr-17	75.58	TRUE	53	69	43%	40%	0%	 2.7 	85	105	25%	FALSE	Wal-Mart Stores
NKE	28-Apr-17	53.32	TRUE	46	67	16%	26%	4%	 1.4 	75	90	57%	TRUE	NIKE Inc. 'B'
DIS	5-May-17	106	TRUE	88	124	20%	28%	7%	 1.5 	110	135	17%	TRUE	Disney (Walt)
JPM	12-May-17	87.34	TRUE	55	85	60%	63%	0%	 2.3 	70	105	0%	FALSE	JPMorgan Chase
AXP	12-May-17	83.02	TRUE	63	94	31%	29%	4%	 1.7 	90	105	18%	FALSE	Amer. Express
V	12-May-17	95.19	TRUE	69	99	38%	53%	8%	 0.8 	115	140	35%	FALSE	Visa Inc.
MSFT	12-May-17	70.58	TRUE	34	49	109%	117%	6%	 2.2 	70	85	10%	FALSE	Microsoft Corp.
Dow30		        21,421	       10,778  15,786	                         2.5  21,880  28,249			Dow Jones Industrial Average
Appreciation Potential		  	 -50%	   -26%				         2%     32%     23%


AllTooFoolish's CAPS Portfolio: 
If you are interested in seeing this method applied to a broader universe of stocks, follow my actively managed Benchmark Investing portfolio using Fool CAPS.
I have been using this methodology exclusively in Fool.com for many years with great success. In the Fool CAPS you will find my current portfolio 
and can see my most recent activities.

Notable activity in my past month’s CAPS portfolio: 
-	NONE -  

My overall Fool CAPS Rating at the time of this post was 78
Score: 1,650 (84th percentile)
Accuracy: 49% (56nd percentile)


Disclosures and Useful Terms
VL Date is the date of the last summary report update from Valueline as indicated in the post’s subject line.
All data sources from Valueline Dow30 reports made publicly available on the VL website. https://research.valueline.com/research#list=dow30&sec=l...

Current Price is the closing price of the stock as reported by VL, which is usually a few days behind the date 
of the time period mentioned in the posting subject line.

ROE/BV Updated is an indication if the stock’s BV and ROE have been updated through the end of the Benchmark 
evaluation time frame.

10Yr Down is the 10 year downside price. The company must have at least 7 years of non-negative ROE data to qualify.

10Yr Down4Qs is the 10 year downside price averaged over the previous 4 quarter’s valuation price.

10Yr Up is the 10 year upside price. The company must have at least 7 years of non-negative ROE data to qualify.

Both upside and downside are calculated using method outlined in TTD book.
Also a discussion of calculating the upside and downside can be found here:
http://boards.fool.com/Message.asp?mid=20916205&sort=who......

%<10Y Downside is the current price divided by the 10 Yr downside expressed as a percentage.

EPS Future Delta is the projected growth in EPS for the next 4 quarters versus the last four reported quarters.
I use the latest EPS data from the VL spreadsheet which are updated as soon as new earnings are reported.

Div Yield is the current % dividend payout ratio per share.

3-5 Y Low/Hi Price Est. is the downside/upside price estimate which is calculated using the projections of Book Value 
and ROE as discussed in TTD.

Min VL Price Appreciation is the expected change in price from current price to low end VL projected 3-5 year
appreciation price.

ROE >2STD is part of a margin of safety consideration, which is briefly discussed in TTD on pg 70-71. 

I compare the current year's ROE versus the last 10 years of ROE data. If the current ROE is greater than average (10 Yr
ROE) + (2 * stdev(10 Yr ROE)), 
than this column is TRUE, else it is FALSE. This tells me that the stock's ROE is much higher than its historic average and should therefore be avoided.
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