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No. of Recommendations: 5
This update is based on the latest VL results as of Monday’s data release in the post title. At this time, no Dow30 stocks are trading below their benchmark 
downside price target. Note, because there is not even a single stock below its downside price target at the end of 2016 I am not generating a 2017 BI portfolio to track.
However, I will be making a post from time-to-time showing the Dow30 picks and their downside targets throughout the year. If you are interested in
following along with this methodology against a broader range of stocks outside of the Dow30, my picks are posted in the Fool CAPS on a live basis.

Market Valuation (Dow 30): 
The market remains very overvalued at this time, at least according to the BI method of valuation.
Downside: -53%
Upside:   -31%

Long Buy Rules: 
I am using the following TTD rules for Long position considerations:
1. Year-over-Year EPS growth must > 10%, which are the next 4Q / current quarter + previous 3 quarters earnings results
2. VL 3-5 Year price appreciation > average price appreciation of the market
3. When calculating ROE and BV figures, ignore years when are negative, but must have at least 7+ years of data to be 
   included in final consideration
4. Avoid erratic ROE ratios, that is where they are > 2std deviations = Curr ROE > (10 Year Avg + 2 * Std Dev)
5. ROE and BV current figures must be updated by VL to be considered.

Summary of Results

	VL	        Current	ROE/BV	Down	Up     %<10Y   %<10Y	EPS	Div    3-5Y L 3-5Y H VL 3-5Y   ROE	
Ticker	Date	        Price	Updated	Price	Price	Down	Down4Qs	Delta   Yield   VL $	VL $	% Chg	<2STD	Name
CAT	18-Aug-17	124	TRUE	49	80	152%	226%	24%	 2.5 	115	155	7%	FALSE	Caterpillar Inc.
JNJ	18-Aug-17	130	TRUE	80	102	64%	63%	18%	 2.7 	145	175	23%	FALSE	Johnson & Johnson
MCD	25-Aug-17	157	FALSE					8%	 2.6 	155	190	9%	TRUE	McDonald's Corp.
CVX	1-Sep-17	116	TRUE	28	40	311%	285%	34%	 3.7 	120	145	12%	FALSE	Chevron Corp.
XOM	1-Sep-17	81.42	TRUE	35	47	131%	142%	32%	 3.8 	100	120	33%	FALSE	Exxon Mobil Corp.
BA	8-Sep-17	255	FALSE					2%	 2.5 	225	265	-4%	TRUE	Boeing
TRV	8-Sep-17	122	TRUE	67	89	82%	78%	0%	 2.4 	130	160	18%	FALSE	Travelers Cos.
UNH	8-Sep-17	197	TRUE	100	150	98%	111%	14%	 1.5 	160	195	-9%	FALSE	UnitedHealth Group
VZ	15-Sep-17	49.37	FALSE					0%	 4.8 	65	80	46%	TRUE	Verizon Communic.
CSCO	15-Sep-17	33.59	FALSE	26	38	31%	30%	5%	 3.5 	35	45	19%	FALSE	Cisco Systems
HD	22-Sep-17	164	FALSE				118%	12%	 2.5 	160	195	9%	TRUE	Home Depot
PG	22-Sep-17	91.54	FALSE	62	81	47%	53%	7%	 3.0 	95	115	15%	TRUE	Procter & Gamble
INTC	29-Sep-17	38.19	TRUE	30	46	26%	31%	4%	 2.9 	45	55	32%	FALSE	Intel Corp.
AAPL	29-Sep-17	154	TRUE	89	166	72%	65%	15%	 1.7 	40	225	27%	FALSE	Apple Inc.
IBM	29-Sep-17	145	TRUE	115	156	27%	26%	-1%	 4.3 	165	200	25%	FALSE	Int'l Business Mach.
DWDP	6-Oct-17	69.47	TRUE					N/A	 2.5 	65	90	12%	TRUE	DowDuPont Inc.
MRK	6-Oct-17	64.06	TRUE	40	58	59%	62%	2%	 2.9 	70	85	20%	FALSE	Merck & Co.
PFE	6-Oct-17	35.6	TRUE	24	32	48%	76%	12%	 3.6 	40	50	26%	FALSE	Pfizer Inc.
GE	14-Jul-17	24.16	TRUE	20	30	20%	17%	43%	 4.0 	40	55	95%	FALSE	Gen'l Electric
MMM	14-Jul-17	211	TRUE	120	167	76%	92%	10%	 2.2 	210	255	10%	TRUE	3M Company
UTX	14-Jul-17	116	TRUE	81	112	44%	44%	2%	 2.4 	140	170	33%	FALSE	United Technologies
GS	14-Jul-17	238	TRUE	132	227	80%	80%	5%	 1.3 	275	370	36%	FALSE	Goldman Sachs
KO	21-Jul-17	45.01	TRUE	31	39	46%	46%	0%	 3.4 	45	55	11%	FALSE	Coca-Cola
WMT	28-Jul-17	77.85	TRUE	53	69	47%	45%	1%	 2.6 	85	105	20%	FALSE	Wal-Mart Stores
NKE	28-Jul-17	51.97	FALSE	49	72	5%	15%	-24%	 1.4 	75	95	61%	TRUE	NIKE Inc. 'B'
DIS	4-Aug-17	99.7	TRUE	90	126	11%	15%	9%	 1.6 	115	140	30%	TRUE	Disney (Walt)
JPM	11-Aug-17	95.73	TRUE	57	89	67%	73%	0%	 2.4 	75	100	-8%	FALSE	JPMorgan Chase
AXP	11-Aug-17	90.72	TRUE	63	94	45%	44%	22%	 1.6 	90	115	13%	FALSE	Amer. Express
V	11-Aug-17	106	TRUE	71	103	48%	51%	13%	 0.7 	115	140	21%	FALSE	Visa Inc.
MSFT	11-Aug-17	74.85	FALSE	34	50	118%	122%	3%	 2.3 	75	90	11%	FALSE	Microsoft Corp.
Dow30		        22,310	       10,589  15,499	                         2.5  22,394  29,003			Dow Jones Industrial Average
Appreciation Potential		  	 -53%	   -31%				         0%     30%     22%


AllTooFoolish's CAPS Portfolio: 
If you are interested in seeing this method applied to a broader universe of stocks, follow my actively managed Benchmark Investing portfolio using Fool CAPS.
I have been using this methodology exclusively in Fool.com for many years with great success. In the Fool CAPS you will find my current portfolio 
and can see my most recent activities.

Notable activity in my past month’s CAPS portfolio: 
ENDO: Sell, selling due to overvaluation

My overall Fool CAPS Rating at the time of this post was 77
Score: 1,726 (83th percentile)
Accuracy: 48% (49th percentile)


Disclosures and Useful Terms
VL Date is the date of the last summary report update from Valueline as indicated in the post’s subject line.
All data sources from Valueline Dow30 reports made publicly available on the VL website. https://research.valueline.com/research#list=dow30&sec=l...

Current Price is the closing price of the stock as reported by VL, which is usually a few days behind the date 
of the time period mentioned in the posting subject line.

ROE/BV Updated is an indication if the stock’s BV and ROE have been updated through the end of the Benchmark 
evaluation time frame.

10Yr Down is the 10 year downside price. The company must have at least 7 years of non-negative ROE data to qualify.

10Yr Down4Qs is the 10 year downside price averaged over the previous 4 quarter’s valuation price.

10Yr Up is the 10 year upside price. The company must have at least 7 years of non-negative ROE data to qualify.

Both upside and downside are calculated using method outlined in TTD book.
Also a discussion of calculating the upside and downside can be found here:
http://boards.fool.com/Message.asp?mid=20916205&sort=who......

%<10Y Downside is the current price divided by the 10 Yr downside expressed as a percentage.

EPS Future Delta is the projected growth in EPS for the next 4 quarters versus the last four reported quarters.
I use the latest EPS data from the VL spreadsheet which are updated as soon as new earnings are reported.

Div Yield is the current % dividend payout ratio per share.

3-5 Y Low/Hi Price Est. is the downside/upside price estimate which is calculated using the projections of Book Value 
and ROE as discussed in TTD.

Min VL Price Appreciation is the expected change in price from current price to low end VL projected 3-5 year
appreciation price.

ROE >2STD is part of a margin of safety consideration, which is briefly discussed in TTD on pg 70-71. 

I compare the current year's ROE versus the last 10 years of ROE data. If the current ROE is greater than average (10 Yr
ROE) + (2 * stdev(10 Yr ROE)), 
than this column is TRUE, else it is FALSE. This tells me that the stock's ROE is much higher than its historic average and should therefore be avoided.
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