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Author: Fuma102 Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 24982  
Subject: Biotech 2010 - final Date: 12/19/2010 12:52 PM
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player          Total	Company	start	update	%	Company	start	update	%
CSOakes	       82%	PLX	7.02	9.37	33%	IDIX	2.18	5.02	130%
fuma102	       77%	SQNM	4.28	7.19	68%	OSIP	30.96	57.43	85%
projectchris   48%	NEOP.OB	1.17	1.92	64%	SPPI	4.54	6.02	33%
MissAsh	       45%	CBLI	3.42	7.1	108%	VRTX	43.26	35.45	-18%
Helical	       29%	HLCS	1.04	0.12	-88%	CALP	2.65	6.52	146%
TomFoolNC	 22%	ALTH	6.58	4.35	-34%	EXAS	3.39	6.06	79%
Java	       20%	EXEL	7.48	8.78	17%	MNTA	12.66	15.45	22%
Indexes	       13%	NASDAQ	2300	2643	15%	SPY	111	124	12%
BioIdexes        8%	IBB	84.25	94.19	12%	BBH	98.52	102	4%
DartMonkey       8%	AMGN	57.04	57.42	1%	BSX (S)	9.03	7.65	15%
Grassman        5%	NNVC	0.89	1.18	33%	ACUS	0.09	0.07	-22%
Vision2010	-4%	ELN	6.77	6	-11%	VVUS	9.45	9.78	3%
JPG101	        -11%	MNKD	9	8.02	-11%				
SarahGen	-15%	OPTR	11.7	11.5	-2%	MYRX	5.29	3.81	-28%
Wadigo	        -18%	GERN	5.97	4.98	-17%	STEM	1.36	1.09	-20%
Sano	        -18%	CTIC	1.19	0.37	-69%	SPPI	4.54	6.02	33%
Joseph714  	-22%	VICL	3.41	2.09	-39%	CVM	0.92	0.87	-5%
DavidMN     -49%	MDVN (S) 38.12	15.07	60%	ITMN(S)	13.47	34.89	-159%
Shuksan77    -70%	NEPH	0.85	0.11	-87%	WGBS	2.4	1.15	-52%
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Author: TMFHelical Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Coverage Fool CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 24374 of 24982
Subject: Re: Biotech 2010 - final Date: 12/19/2010 4:46 PM
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Helical	       29%	HLCS	1.04	0.12	-88%	CALP	2.65	6.52	146%</Pre>

That is quite a dyslexic line. Helicos was the worst of the long (non short) calls, as their tech just never really came forward in the practical sense. Of course in Pacific Bio there is a 'newer' entry with the single molecule 'make sequencing dirt cheap' model. Could there be a case of 'the second mouse gets the cheese'? Then Caliper, the best long call. It sure isn't often that a toolmaker can pull that off in a contest like this. I don't still own Caliper, being content to take some (but apparently not enough) profits.

TMFHelical
Home Coverage Fool


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Author: TMFHelical Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Coverage Fool CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 24375 of 24982
Subject: Re: Biotech 2010 - final Date: 12/19/2010 4:49 PM
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Helical	       29%	HLCS	1.04	0.12	-88%	CALP	2.65	6.52	146%


That is quite a dyslexic line. Helicos was the worst of the long (non short) calls,
as their tech just never really came forward in the practical sense. Of course in
Pacific Bio there is a 'newer' entry with the single molecule 'make sequencing
dirt cheap' model. Could there be a case of 'the second mouse gets the cheese'? Then
Caliper, the best long call. It sure isn't often that a toolmaker can pull that off
in a contest like this. I don't still own Caliper, being content to take some (but
apparently not enough) profits.

TMFHelical
Home Coverage Fool

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Author: JPG101 Two stars, 250 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 24376 of 24982
Subject: Re: Biotech 2010 - final Date: 12/19/2010 5:49 PM
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Hi Fuma,

My other pick was Renovo from the UK. Started at .29 or .30 pounds and is now at .59 pounds so a 100% for me on that one!

Also Mannkind is getting approved (or CRL and 'killed') theoretically on Dec 29th 2010... Still 2010!

I could actually win this years contest! Talk of counting your chickens before they hatch...

Jean Pierre

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Author: JPG101 Two stars, 250 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 24377 of 24982
Subject: Re: Biotech 2010 - final Date: 12/19/2010 5:55 PM
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Renovo even seems to have a symbol on CAPS now... Since when have foreign stocks made it to MF?

http://caps.fool.com/Ticker/RNVO.L.aspx

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Author: TMFBreakerJava Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool Home Fool CAPS All Star SC1 Red Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 24378 of 24982
Subject: Re: Biotech 2010 - final Date: 12/19/2010 7:01 PM
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Amazing that EXEL and MNTA both ended up having very similar performance this year, not extraordinary but solidly higher. Both stocks seem like they would be promising picks for the coming year. Perhaps I`ll choose the same two stocks for Biotech 2011...

Java
RB Home Fool
Who is presently surprised to end up in the middle of the pack

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Author: projectchris Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool Global Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 24379 of 24982
Subject: Re: Biotech 2010 - final Date: 12/19/2010 7:10 PM
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Also Mannkind is getting approved (or CRL and 'killed') theoretically on Dec 29th 2010... Still 2010!

I could actually win this years contest! Talk of counting your chickens before they hatch...

Jean Pierre




Those of us invested me included hope you win per calendar year

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Author: TMFHelical Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Coverage Fool CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 24380 of 24982
Subject: Re: Biotech 2010 - final Date: 12/19/2010 7:37 PM
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Those of us invested me included hope you win per calendar year

I don't expect it personally. I'm just not that comfortable that Mannagement actually does what the FDA requests (and no, that's not a typo). I would like to see it however.

TMFHelical
Home Coverage Fool

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Author: joseph714 Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 24383 of 24982
Subject: Re: Biotech 2010 - final Date: 12/20/2010 6:38 PM
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oh dear.

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Author: shuksan77 Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 24384 of 24982
Subject: Re: Biotech 2010 - final Date: 12/20/2010 7:33 PM
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Joseph:

oh dear.

Excuse me?

Oh, dearer!!

--Shuksan

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Author: projectchris Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool Global Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 24385 of 24982
Subject: Re: Biotech 2010 - final Date: 12/20/2010 8:32 PM
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I don't expect it personally. I'm just not that comfortable that Mannagement actually does what the FDA requests (and no, that's not a typo). I would like to see it however.


It will be interesting regardless. My opinion would be lean more towards approval. Maybe I'm missing something as it seems like MNKD has done about every trial imaginable. I would love to hear your expanded thoughts. I've got a modest to slight overweight here with some puts- Jan 2011 $4 strikes. I keep hearing that no approval would mean $1 stock price. I could definitely sleep at night if that happened, but much prefer the approval scenerio.

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Author: projectchris Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool Global Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 24386 of 24982
Subject: Re: Biotech 2010 - final Date: 12/20/2010 8:58 PM
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I'll stick with my same two for next season. Not much has changed for me in the way of finding new biotechs for my watchlist. Unfortunate as I would have liked to bring new ideas to hear opinions on them.

Oh well maybe other folks will bring some new blood to the contest.

Chris,

P.S. Can't wait to hear some new ideas out there.

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Author: cheftms One star, 50 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 24387 of 24982
Subject: Re: Biotech 2010 - final Date: 12/21/2010 11:54 AM
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Been a lurker on this board for quite some time ... my entries would be EXEL and Path. I like NuPathe for it's migraine patch and am excited about the promise of Exel's XL184 drug.

Tom

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Author: vision1220 Two stars, 250 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 24388 of 24982
Subject: Re: Biotech 2010 - final Date: 12/21/2010 12:23 PM
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Going out on a limb here and am picking two stocks that I have skin on:

ZLCS
BPAX

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Author: TMFHelical Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Coverage Fool CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 24395 of 24982
Subject: Re: Biotech 2010 - final Date: 12/21/2010 5:43 PM
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Maybe I'm missing something as it seems like MNKD has done about every trial imaginable.

Projectchris,

I meant to get back to this. The issue I suspect is whether they supplied enough to the FDA. Remember, they changed the device between their pivotal trial, and what they asked to have approved. That just isn't done. The FDA does not consider just the active ingredient to be the drug, but the entire package to be the drug. Active, inactives, bottle, label, everything. I get that their 'newer' design was better, but they needed to do their trials with it, and they didn't (improved device design came later).

I think they may get an only very limited approval if any, and asked to get more information on a broader population with the device they intend to use.

I've listened to a couple of investor calls from these guys, and they don't give me confidence. I don't like especially that they have teased 'a mystery partner in the wings' just waiting on clarifications (sitting down with the FDA prior to resubmitting the NDA didn't provide that). Essentially, I wouldn't be surprised if the FDA indicated a desire for more, and Mann said, tough, I'm submitting what I got and making you approve or disapprove (no idea really, just seems in character). Hope I'm wrong, I'd like to see this go through.

TMFHelical
Home Coverage Fool

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Author: joseph714 Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 24396 of 24982
Subject: Re: Biotech 2010 - final Date: 12/22/2010 9:47 AM
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Joseph:

oh dear.

Excuse me?

Oh, dearer!!

--Shuksan
--------

Okay, you win.

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Author: projectchris Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool Global Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 24471 of 24982
Subject: Re: Biotech 2010 - final Date: 1/19/2011 9:00 PM
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Projectchris,

I meant to get back to this. The issue I suspect is whether they supplied enough to the FDA. Remember, they changed the device between their pivotal trial, and what they asked to have approved. That just isn't done. The FDA does not consider just the active ingredient to be the drug, but the entire package to be the drug. Active, inactives, bottle, label, everything. I get that their 'newer' design was better, but they needed to do their trials with it, and they didn't (improved device design came later).


Nice call TMFHelical

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/MannKind-Corporation-Receives-...

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Author: TMFHelical Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Coverage Fool CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 24473 of 24982
Subject: Re: Biotech 2010 - final Date: 1/20/2011 10:50 AM
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Nice call TMFHelical

I wish I could have been a fly on the wall when they met with the FDA prior to resubmitting the NDA with the bridging device information that they had. I find it hard to believe they left that meeting with the sense that what they had was really adequate. Did they responsibly convey that to shareholders - wouldn't surprise me to see some of routine lawsuits crop up.

TMFHelical
Home Coverage Fool

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