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projectchris	neop				sppi
cheftms		exel				path
Vision2010	zlcs				bpax
ennui		exel				cldx
wadigo		gern				STEM
tomfoolNC	exas				mnta
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No. of Recommendations: 1

curious what youre torn between, I'm in the same boat...

SQNM has legit potential for 2-3 bagging, at 8ish, but topped out around 25 at its previous most-hyped hype... No reason to think that it wont come close to that after it recently announced it plans on submitting data to the Journal of OBGYN. Negative data doesnt get published. And they are planning an larger trial that will probably have results announced Q3 next year. The hype monkey is going to be in full effect, including short squeezes. Expect concerns over the soon to be published trial using one illumina system and the yet to be completed trial using an updated illumina system. pay those concerns no mind.

IMGN was my baby, but Ive backed off it a bit. In talks with Heme / onc guys, they dont seem to think the side effects of the combination of the Herceptin and taxanes is that bad, and probably does not require an additional agent that reduces side effects (T-DM1). Ergo, the possibility of not being widespread adapted & royalties in the mid single digits isnt terribly impressive. Granted, this is a much larger than 2011 viewpoint, but I dont see the combination of 50 million in earnings and a half decent pipeline as a recipe for success - for biotech 2011. but then again, it was my discovery for a certain service. and i'm over it for the time being. not at current prices at least.

SGEN, on the other hand, I'm willing to play with. I've outlined this a few times.

GILD is another I'm contemplating. all the HIV meds belong to them. no, seriously. The interesting thing to be is the tobramycin / fosfomycin combo for COPD. Have to read more on this. Completely possible for a 30% bump this year, with much less risk than all of the above. did I mention a PE lower than Roche, Merck, and Pfizer? I managed to do well in 2009 and 2010 with an attempted homerun and a value play, GILD may well be it.

OPTR- still waiting for a solid pop.

stxs - still waiting for them to breaking single digit growth.

cbli- remains solid. just have not actually ran the numbers on sales yet.

INCY has gone kaboom, but may actually go higher. The first oral JAK inhibitor is clutch. Blood cancer with RA coming along- data in P2 for RA looks solid. Sarah, this should be on your ASCO watch list with any dips in early 2011. INCY has long term "this is huge" potential. With that said, I had sent an email to a few folks to watch INCY back in November. Looking at the chart, the run up prior to the rheumatology conference was ~2 months before hand.

.... hmmmm.

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Despite my 2010 showing I'd like to choose......

I think this year Lorcaserin will be approved, but not before the stock likely swoons...

You can tell me if this is legal, since they aren't actively engaged in research--just collecting royalties. However they are unlikely to tank completely (knock on wood) as the royalty stream is fairly consistent and will support the stock's price as a dividend.

Oh...I voted for one buy/sell but only if consistent with your time and energy....

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Sorry to say I have no "new" ideas; will go with CBLI and VRTX; both will be receiving FDA marketing clearance for their lead drug.
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projectchris	sppi	neop
cheftms 	path	exel
Vision2010	bpax	zlcs
ennui	        cldx	exel
wadigo	        STEM	gern
tomfoolNC	mnta	exas
fuma102	        sqnm    gild / incy
Shuksan77	pdli	arna
missash	        vrtx	cbli
Indexes	        SPY	NASDAQ
bioindexes	bbh	ibb

anyone can join!  newbies, lets go!  Likewise, where is our current
 leader CSOakes? Helical? Java? DTM? Grassman? JPG? Sara? Sano? DavidMN 
what are we shorting this year? Joseph, lets bounce back this year!

and just because someone picked exel, doesnt mean you can not!
(think this was a question last year).

Picks due within a week!
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Still mulling my picks, but time is getting short. I'll put some posts around to try to garner players.

Home Coverage Fool
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ISCO- stem cell research. Found this from John Maudlin who believes in a new and coming biotech bubble and he wants in at the bottom. His link is no longer available unless you're a subscriber...I'm not. Recent email is his interest in ISCO.

John Maudlin is in a business/marketing venture with this company to sell this , proprietary cream that the scientists at ISCO had sent him. It was derived from the ultra-expensive nutrient emulsion that they used to actually grow skin with stem cell proteins. He and "friends" have used this product and have seen a noticeable difference with their skin. He says it works better on older skin...yay! With Maudlin's recommendation to his 1 million subscribers they plan on selling a limited supply (due to production limitations) to help fund the company. Here is a link to the product

This is a partial post from the email...
The targets of ISCO research include macular degeneration, the most common cause of adult blindness. Already, animal tests have shown that retinal cells can be used to give sight to the blind. In another part of the eye, corneal disease and damage often causes blindness in otherwise healthy eyes, and is a particularly serious problem in countries like India and China, which lack infrastructure for cornea transplants from human donors. A series of important collaborations are underway now with international eye clinics based in India where a severe lack of cornea donors has left millions blind.
Diabetes continues to be in ISCO scientists' scopes, with real progress being made. It may be, however, that they are closer to treating liver disease. Liver disease is a serious and growing problem as the population ages. Increasingly, baby boomers are discovering that they contracted hepatitis C when they were young, often from blood transfusions. Today, it is the third most common cause of death due to chronic diseases in persons 35 to 64 years old. Liver diseases, including cirrhosis, cost the U.S. health care system alone approximately $100 billion annually.
Liver cell transplantation has been shown to treat patients with liver disease. Currently, this procedure requires hepatocyte cells from donated livers. Unfortunately, as with pancreatic and retinal cells, there are far too few of them. Moreover, they can also provoke immune rejection.
ISCO research efforts are also aimed at Parkinsons and other neurodegenerative diseases. The company and its collaborators are also working on cells to treat other central nervous system diseases.

This is definitely a marketing pitch, but I think it is really interesting. When his email came out on 12/16 the stock jumped, but fell back down after a few days.

EXEL- cuz my fingers are crossed for a hopeful bone cancer cure.
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Hi Fuma,

I'll go with EXEL and MNTA again this year.

In the case of EXEL, there are a number of events that could move the shares this year. 1. There's the prospect for more eye-popping data on late stage prostate cancer. 2. There is also a chance for good results from the phase III trial for MTC and consequently an application for FDA approval of XL-184 in 2012. 3. A new partnership deal for XL-184 on advantageous terms should bring in some major funding. There is also a chance of good news from their partners on other drugs.

For MNTA, it's my belief that there will not be a second generic Lovenox approved this year (or for many years to come). Consequently, they will continue to generate a mountain of cash and the stock price will rise on the strength of the balance sheet and the expectation that they will keep their position as the sole generic. Also, a favorable FDA ruling on generic Copaxone would send the shares higher.

I own a fair bit of both these stocks in real life. So success in the contest will also be a boost to my personal financial situation.

RB Home Fool
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CHTP and AGEN please

I'll get to pitches later! Didn't want to miss the entry deadline.

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Alright folks, I am a newbie here in biotech land but I have been following two biotechs for some time so here goes:

ISIS Pharmaceuticals (ISIS)--has a healthy cash balance and mipomersen, for which ISIS plans to file for marketing approval in the first half of next year in both the US and Europe. Mipomersen targets homozygous FH patients with severely high levels of LDL (bad cholesterol). ISIS also has a deep pipeline of prospective drugs.

Read on:

Exelixis (EXEL)--because it has XL-184.

Income Investor Home Fool
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Okay, after some angst & trepidation, eliminating 4 candidates, here are my two:

SPPI (already had a bit of a run which I was hoping to get in at a lower price)

AVNR (Nicely been losing some steam in this low volume market & will I believe pick up)

I hold both in my real time basket.

Eliminated were: MELA, NBIX, CVM, NYMX, VICL
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I would like to pick YMI and IMGN. thanks, hf
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Just curious as to why you are picking YMI at this time ... company seemed to have promise a couple of years ago but I haven't seen anything about the company recently.

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might as well put my mouth where my money is.....


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Hi Tom, I didn’t want to pick EXEL or MNTA (my two largest biotech holdings) because I figured everyone else would and I wanted to make the contest interesting. And I wanted at least one lower profile/low market cap stock that could have interesting results in 2011.

YMI, despite having a low market cap (180m), actually has several compounds in the pipeline that could make this an interesting stock in 2011. The main one I’m interested in is CYT387. As you know INCY got a lot of interest recently after announcing results of their JAK inhibitor trial on myelofibrosis and they are a couple of steps ahead of the competition.

That said, CYT387 is a promising JAK1/2 inhibitor that may have a potential advantage in anemia over INCY’s drug:

This potential advantage is somewhat controversial as discussed here:

We should see more results when the results of the full trial come out in mid 2011 (ASCO?)—if the anemia results hold up I think YMI will get a nice bounce. YMI also just did a financing so I am hoping not to see more dilution in the immediate future at least. I used to have stock in YMI a couple years back (I think I even picked it at one point in a previous year) and sold it but haven’t bought back in yet.
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I'm new here... here's my two picks ( i own a handful under the premise that you only need one to rocket to the moon to be successful) all would be candidates for this contest but I will try to pick two i don't see on here yet.

PRWP.OB - Pro Pharmaceuticals Inc.

Galectins therapeutics. revolutionary cancer therapy, seems to increase effectiveness of chemotherapy and greatly reduces side effects. also seems to reverse fibrosis of the liver, kidney, maybe the lung. they're chief medical officer used to be with GlaxoSmithKline.

SGMO - Sangamo BioSciences

Zing Finger DNA-binding Proteins technology. They have a ton of IP and the technology seems to have a wide range of applicability. They're currently targeting therapies for Parkinsons disease, diabetic nueropathy, and potentially HIV.

Both of these have run up a bit in the last few months so I am probably set up to lose this contest but I care more about learning more here than winning the contest really.

Good luck to all,
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OK, decision time.

I was initially thinking of being really really speculative, but still staying away from the wannabe drug makers. There were a couple of microcap CROs that I was interesting in selecting.

The first will be a selection - Bioanalytical Systems Inc. (Nasdaq: BASI).

BASi is primarily a preclinical CRO (animal tox) with some related animal toxicolgy equipment lines as well. This is a tough area, which is increasingly moving overseas and is believed by some to have overcapacity. The last quarter, which reported recently, was not pretty. The company is more of a nano-cap, with an EV under 20M, and a good chunk of debt (11M). But, if things can turn for them, the stock should do well. This is partly sentimental, as I have contracted with BASi in the past and found them to be first rate, and very helpful to the naive (which I was at the time, but not so much now thanks in part to them). I want them to survive and would like them to thrive.

I am on the fence for my second pick. In real life, I recently took a stake in Seattle Genetics. I've long thought that their tech (drug conjugated antibodies) should lead to products, but there have been setbacks. The company has had some recent good clinical results to report, which could lead to an accelerated NDA filing. It should have at least moved them onto the short list for big pharma M&A.

Another option is another microcap CRO, Bioclinica. This is a later stage CRO, which made a recent acquisition of imaging technology, which could help carve them a niche in which to operate. But ... there are activist investors about, and they are not thrilled with the acquisition. I'd have certainly gone with this, but it has run up over the past couple of months (not that SGEN didn't).


Lets stay with the CRO theme and go with Bioclinica despite the recent run-up. At under 1X sales, they could still have room to move should they demonstrate they can stabilize then grow earnings this year.

Home Coverage Fool

No stake in either, but since I do have a healthcare focused port now, perhaps I'll take a modest speculative one in each.
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I will have to go with Mannkind and Renovo again this years.


PS: Renovo now has a ticker at

PPS: I did a lot better on the 2010 contest with Renovo up more then 100%... Still looking for justice!
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Some adolescent humor, Helical, BASI on the CNBC ticker gets written as bioanal. 7th grade boys would have a field day.
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best popa
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