No. of Recommendations: 1

Dear Tom9:

I cannot predict what will happen to (short-term) biotech stock prices, because they are affected by the publicity given to various companies by folks like you. As we are seeing, even the (worthless) dot.coms had high stock proces for a while. Now, reality has begun to set in. I expect to Amazon.com down (out of business or merged with a real company) within two years and that will be the sort of the last card.

If you check out my post (Incylong) you wil find that my comments here are fairly predictable. I believe the profitability and long-term stock price (i.e., the biotech survivors) will be driven by the ability of the companies to make a profit and prouce dividends. (I suspect that most retail biotech investors do not know what dividends are).



The problem is knowing which biotechs and which products will ultimately win. This is why I have begun writing a series of market oriented technical profiles of the biotech industry,,,,
http://www.soapbox.com/english_exec/v?op=a&a=MEM0000003449

In picking stocks, I look for companies that have the staying power (cash/burn-rate)to survive, a broadly applicable technology platform, the intellectual property to withstand competition, and responsible management.

If you want my picks (disclosure: I hold stock most of them), here they are:

INCY...the friend of big pharma will gain royalties that will make QCOM look like a small play. If you look at the market caps of the two companies, you can see where I think Incy's stock price will be.

CEGE... did someone say gene therapy? ...also (at the moment) a cheap way to buy ABGX for antibodies

DYAX....phage display patents, they may end up to be the INCY of proteins.

ONXX....cancer prevented and cured

GERN....life extened, cancer cured, body parts regrown

PDLI....drugs by design for a variety of ailments

DNDN.....T-Cell diseases

VERTX, HGSI, CRXA, ....will replace some of the Big Pharmas with gene and protein based drugs and vaccines

Niche players, supporting players and long shots: ABGX, MEDRX, ISIP, (One of these will win: AMEV, MAXYGENE or DVSA), VICL, CRXL, RZYM

Major losers: CRA....commodity business....no business plan, no intellectual property...book value = cash + $200 million. But, this company will o well in the short-term stock prices....as it symbolizes "biotech" to many people. It gets credit for "thinking about" things that other people have done and patented. As in CRA is "thinking about...." and the stock goes up.

Technology I love that will probably never make it...VION, LYNX, NEXL, PTXX





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