i have been watching 30yr treasury for some time now three years. i beleive that interest rates are ready to move down from the current highs. my logic is this the government is slowing in the amount of money that it is borrowing, new issues are smaller, the projected surplus will allow the gov. to buy up older issues lowering its dept ratio, tightening the market, ie. (supply and demand). over the next 6 to 8 months interest on the 30yr will drop from 6.3 to 5.8% that should provide a 30% plus return on an investment at todays depressed fund prices. over a longer period 2 to 3 years maybe much lower around 5%. what do you think?
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