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Author: pauleckler Big funky green star, 20000 posts Top Favorite Fools Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 76081  
Subject: Bond/Tech Stock Hedge Portfolio Date: 3/3/2000 2:18 PM
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I would like to claim I came up with this by astute planning, but actually in my case it is happenstance. I have an IRA account thats about 70% bonds and 30% technology sector funds. Interesting things are happening in this account. Bonds were clobbered last year with rising interest rates (many bond funds had negative returns last year), but still my account balance keeps rising because the tech funds are doing so well.

If stocks crash, it is likely the Fed will quickly drop interest rates to stimulate the economy. This should mean that much of the loss in stocks could be made up in increased bond value. Ie, this is a hedging strategy. Moreover, if the tech funds do well enough this combination has potential to meet or exceed S&P Index fund returns.

Two scenarios: If bonds yield 8%, tech funds return 50%, tech funds crash to 50% of their value, and bond yields fall to 6%, you need 60% bonds/40% tech funds to protect the downside while earning 24.8% bottom line on the account.

If in the same scenario, tech stocks return only 40%, you need 65% bonds to protect the downside and the normal return will be 19.2%. Still not bad compared to the S&P returns expected.

If bond yield falls to only 7%, and you get 40% return on the tech stocks, you need 80% bonds to protect the downside and your return falls to 14.4% in normal times.

Comments on this kind of strategy invited.

Is this suitable for retiree investments?
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