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Author: solarae100 Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 1109  
Subject: Bottom? Date: 2/18/2009 1:18 PM
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BB seems to think the SP 750-800 is the bottom.
752.44 11/20/08
805.22 1/20/09 retest after a 24.2% rally over 7wks
780~ 2/18/09
Do you agree or are we going down a lot more?

Edy
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Author: desertdaveataol Big funky green star, 20000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 1100 of 1109
Subject: Re: Bottom? Date: 2/18/2009 1:35 PM
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Edy, Please see my previous post:

http://boards.fool.com/Message.asp?mid=27439315

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Author: BrMad Three stars, 500 posts Ticker Guide CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 1101 of 1109
Subject: Re: Bottom? Date: 2/18/2009 1:50 PM
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I think that Brinker's radio show is excellent. However, I have found out the hard way that he is no better at "timing" the stock market than anyone else.

He's had "Marketimer" subscribers fully invested since March of 2003. Well, we all know how that's worked out.

Like Alan Greenspan, I think that Mr. Brinker totally miscalculated the craziness of the greed driven and debt fueled economy we had during the housing boom. He was dead wrong about the stock market for over a year, and has said as much on the radio.

No, I think that if anyone, Brinker included, could truly time stock market tops and bottoms, then they would have no need to pedal newsletters expounding their Market timing strategy. They would simply make their fortunes buying and selling stocks.

The stock market bottom may have occurred and it may not have. The stock market index values will be able to hold gains and continue to rally, when investors and the U.S. public believe that the economy is growing sustainably again.

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Author: desertdaveataol Big funky green star, 20000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 1102 of 1109
Subject: Re: Bottom? Date: 2/18/2009 5:24 PM
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I think that Brinker's radio show is excellent.

Yes, Brinker's radio show is a godsend for people who don't know much about stocks and bonds -- he steers them away from the financial sharks masquerading as "investment advisors" and brokers who charge high fees for low performance. But you're right, no one can consistently time the market. Bob included.

I haven't been able to listen to Brinker's show much lately so I haven't hear him say he was wrong, but that's the kind of honesty I would expect from him.

Fortunately Bob convinced me to put a large (for us) amount of our investments into Vanguard's GNMA fund.
https://personal.vanguard.com/us/JSP/Funds/Profile/VGIFundPr...
which has been yielding at or a little under 5% for the past year or two.

Brinker recommends funds not individual stocks so I'll take full credit for my investments in US dividend paying utilities which have continued to pay us year after year. Vanguard is reinvesting the utility dividends (for free) for us so our dividend stream continues to grow.

Like you, I feel anyone who had a surefire method of consistently making money in the markets would be doing so, not selling newsletters. However, I see Brinker's newsletter (I've only seen a single sample copy that I sent away for years ago.) as more than a cash flow stream for him; it's also a way of guiding unsophisticated investors away from the Wall Street sharks.

People smarter than I over at the METAR board (and on other boards as well) don't think the market has bottomed out yet. Many (most?) don't expect the blood to stop flowing in either Wall St. or Main St. until 2010 or later.

Personally I expect another big downward step soon.

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