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Author: fredericch Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 243  
Subject: Bought SI today Date: 9/22/2008 9:17 PM
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This board looks pretty dead, but I thought I would post anyways and try to get some responses.

I bought SI today. $99.55. The fundamentals looked good - lower than average PE (10.7), low PEG (.59), low P/S (.76), low price to book for a company with hard goods inventory (1.81), a dividend (2.5%). My DCF gave me a 79% MoS. Even if I'm wrong with my calculations by a factor of 2, that still gives me a MoS of 58%. (I like having a Margin of Safety for calculating my Margin of Safety!)
Here are the numbers I used:
Discount rate 10%
FCF: 11,240M
Growth 1-5 years: 20%
Growth 6-10 years: 10%
Growth after: 3%
Share outstanding: 876,910,000
Current price: $99.51
Growth number is rounded down from Yahoo, 21.4%.
FCF is actually Operation Cash Flow.

Siemens is located outside the US, which feels good to me now. It is one of the major producers of wind turbines in the world, which seems to be a good place to be. They are in healthcare, energy, home electronics,...These are all places where people are going to be focusing their thoughts and innovation in the coming years.

I compared SI to Philips and GE. It compared most favorably of the three.

Am I missing something? Can it really be that SI is priced at 1/5 of its intrinsic value?

Anyone out there?

Fredericch
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