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Author: fredericch Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 243  
Subject: Bought SI today Date: 9/22/2008 9:17 PM
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This board looks pretty dead, but I thought I would post anyways and try to get some responses.

I bought SI today. $99.55. The fundamentals looked good - lower than average PE (10.7), low PEG (.59), low P/S (.76), low price to book for a company with hard goods inventory (1.81), a dividend (2.5%). My DCF gave me a 79% MoS. Even if I'm wrong with my calculations by a factor of 2, that still gives me a MoS of 58%. (I like having a Margin of Safety for calculating my Margin of Safety!)
Here are the numbers I used:
Discount rate 10%
FCF: 11,240M
Growth 1-5 years: 20%
Growth 6-10 years: 10%
Growth after: 3%
Share outstanding: 876,910,000
Current price: $99.51
Growth number is rounded down from Yahoo, 21.4%.
FCF is actually Operation Cash Flow.

Siemens is located outside the US, which feels good to me now. It is one of the major producers of wind turbines in the world, which seems to be a good place to be. They are in healthcare, energy, home electronics,...These are all places where people are going to be focusing their thoughts and innovation in the coming years.

I compared SI to Philips and GE. It compared most favorably of the three.

Am I missing something? Can it really be that SI is priced at 1/5 of its intrinsic value?

Anyone out there?

Fredericch
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Author: Groovetoon Three stars, 500 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 223 of 243
Subject: Re: Bought SI today Date: 9/24/2008 2:47 PM
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Hey hey! I've been curious as to why this board is so dead. I think you've picked up shares of an awesome company who appears to be more heavily devalued than either GE or ABB. I have a limit order in at $95. We'll see if the market fluctuates its way down there.

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Author: fredericch Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 224 of 243
Subject: Re: Bought SI today Date: 9/24/2008 3:26 PM
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I'm waiting for a lower price to pick up another chunk. I think we could see $95 soon...I think the market still has some silliness left in it!

Fredericch

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Author: mrparrotfez Big red star, 1000 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 225 of 243
Subject: Re: Bought SI today Date: 10/1/2008 1:53 PM
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I remain long SI, though not a large position. I think they're a strong business, exposure to the European economy, diverse. I'd probably dump it if I could get $150/share for it, but I don't see that happening tomorrow.

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Author: fredericch Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 226 of 243
Subject: Re: Bought SI today Date: 1/8/2009 12:25 AM
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Wow, alot has happened since my last post here, and re-reading it really gives me some perspectives. I was hoping for under $95, and now it is under $75!! If only I had picked some up in the $40's!!

I'm getting ready to do some buying, with retirement contribution money. I think SI will be one of my top picks. The business numbers haven't changed significantly, despite the drop in price and the economic situation that has become clearer. I have to do some reading just to make sure.

Any opinions out there?

Fredericch

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Author: Anibaldo Big funky green star, 20000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 227 of 243
Subject: Re: Bought SI today Date: 1/8/2009 6:56 AM
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those prices around mid-40 were a rare occasion i missed, as well. didn't have anything to do with si, this was all related to the volkswagen short squeeze. as usual, when i understood what was happening, it was too late.

i had bought at 49€, which i had considered a rather cheap price, just to see it fall until 31 or so. when i understood the implications of the vw short squeeze for the rest of dax values, it was too late, or not really, but i was reluctant to buy in the low 40ies what i had bought in the high 40ies. psychology.

what happened during these three or four days of the short squeeze, was a rare opportunity to make a safe bet. ultra safe. but i was too stupid, as always happens. same with the c bailout. the news was out on saturday, so you easily could buy in frankfurt in the morning of monday with just a 20% rise over friday's closing. but again, i let pass the occasion, just as always happens to me.

abe

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