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Author: psuasskicker6 Big funky green star, 20000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 5884  
Subject: Broncos/Steelers Date: 1/15/2006 10:33 PM
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Directed here from the poker board, I'm cut and pasting a post that I'm asking for some advise on...



The background is that a couple of us from work kicked in $100 each to get 250 contracts of both Broncos and Bengals for a total of ~12. The Colts were eating huge equity, and we liked the idea that if the Bengals won, one of the two of them would go into the AFC Championship game trading around 15 - 19. Well, the Broncos of course won, and with the Colts losing there's a TON of equity going around now, much shifting into the Broncos. Here's a cut and paste from the TMF football board I made...


The dilema we now face is what to do. Especially if Big Ben is really hurt and won't be able to play (not likely, but who knows). My guess is they'll trade between 30 and 35 all week. I want to pull out at least my initial $100, which will probably leave around $150 in to play with. The question is, how much should I be letting ride? Cause if they go to the Superbowl, I can't imagine they won't be at least even money to win. Then, if they make it to the Bowl, I'll have another decision. Here's what I'm thinking right now, assuming they trade at 30 ($250 value).
Pull $125, let $125 ride.
Then, if they win next week, assume they trade at 50. That $125 turns to about $210.
Pull $100. The $110 remaining doubles if the Broncos win.

Could be a pull of $125+$100+$220=$445 if they win it all, which I definitely think is possible. Have to see where the line gets set and all that over the week. We'll see what happens.

Any thoughts would be appreciated.

- C -
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Author: TheNajdorfDefens Big funky green star, 20000 posts Feste Award Nominee! Old School Fool CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 436 of 5884
Subject: Re: Broncos/Steelers Date: 1/16/2006 12:49 PM
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I would pull $100 or less now, because you will get 16-10 to hedge on Pitt. That allows you to pull more later, or let it ride, depending. Hedging should generally be kept to a minimum simply because you will have explicit or implicit hedging costs, assuming of course you still like your original bet of DEN. If you don't then hedge completely, of course.

Naj

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