No. of Recommendations: 9
But have we really seen all that much of a wave of retirement yet?
Yes, absolutely. You can see it by what's happening in the normal (non-fad) retirement areas. Mid south, etc. Like Arkansas. When we retired and moved from Chicago to Ar, we were just after the leading edge of the wave. Northerners are coming down here with their money and buying up land & houses and driving up prices and killing the locals.

So IF the crowd piles into bonds from stock, what would happen to the bond market?
I recently read a paper discussing just this.
An individual can change his asset allocation, but the overall market can't. Every asset is owned by exactly one person. If you want to sell your stock, then somebody else must buy it from you.

If you want to go from 60/40 to 20/80, then somebody else has to go from 20/80 to 60/40. Most importantly, the valuations would shift.

If lots of people sell stocks, that drives down the prices of stocks. If lots of people buy bonds, that drives up the price of bonds. Hence, stock dividends would go up and bonds yields would go down. Thereby negating what the crowd was trying to accomplish.

I am concerned that we are about to see a change in traditional returns.
Here's one thing you can take to the bank: It is *never* different this time.
If you make plans based on things being different this time, you will lose.
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