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Author: LurkerMom Big funky green star, 20000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 1967148  
Subject: But...But...She's Stoopid Date: 9/20/2011 11:36 PM
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So how can that be?

"SHOCK POLL: PALIN PULLS WITHIN 5-POINTS OF OBAMA"
"Poll finds Obama losing ground to Republicans"

Like I've been telling you...even Joe the Plumber can beat the prez.

snip
"The biggest gain came for Palin, the former Alaska governor who hasn't yet announced whether she'll jump into the fast-changing race for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination.

After trailing Obama by more than 20 percentage points in polls all year, the new national survey, taken Sept. 13-14, found Palin trailing the president by just 5 points, 49-44 percent. The key reason: She now leads Obama among independents, a sharp turnaround."


Read more: http://www.miamiherald.com/2011/09/20/v-fullstory/2417008/po...
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Author: nigelwhalmsley Big gold star, 5000 posts Top Recommended Fools Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 1699507 of 1967148
Subject: Re: But...But...She's Stoopid Date: 9/21/2011 12:04 AM
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"Like I've been telling you...even Joe the Plumber can beat the prez."

Great pairing - Joe the Idiot Plumber and Sarah, the twit half-governor. They're sure to win.

One wonders how Rick Perry could possibly be at the top of the list with those two stars waiting in the wings.

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Author: aspenglow Big funky green star, 20000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 1699509 of 1967148
Subject: Re: But...But...She's Stoopid Date: 9/21/2011 12:11 AM
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After trailing Obama by more than 20 percentage points in polls all year, the new national survey, taken Sept. 13-14, found Palin trailing the president by just 5 points, 49-44 percent. The key reason: She now leads Obama among independents, a sharp turnaround."


it would be entertaining to see how Palin would handle press conferences with the "Lamestream Media" if she actually had to govern a full term

But please, if she wins, let's at least stop her from revamping the country's sex ed.... seeing how it turned out in her own family doesn't create warm fuzzies

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Author: N56629 Big funky green star, 20000 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 1699510 of 1967148
Subject: Re: But...But...She's Stoopid Date: 9/21/2011 12:19 AM
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A "survey" of repulicans show that? Hmmm

Let's look at something more credible than your so-called "survey".

Perry Looks Better Against Romney Than Against Obama

http://www.gallup.com/poll/149552/perry-looks-better-against...

Poll: Perry's Lead Slipping in GOP Race

http://www.myfoxphoenix.com/dpps/news/poll-perrys-lead-slipp...

See if you can add 1+1

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Author: wittgenstein Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 1699523 of 1967148
Subject: Re: But...But...She's Stoopid Date: 9/21/2011 7:52 AM
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Joe the Idiot Plumber and Sarah, the twit half-governor. They're sure to win.

Always nice to read the writings of a certified genius. Probably know how to fix a toilet too. Impressive.

jz

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Author: cjb44 Big funky green star, 20000 posts 6 Year Anniversary! Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 1699524 of 1967148
Subject: Re: But...But...She's Stoopid Date: 9/21/2011 7:54 AM
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She's smarter than people think...and Obama isn't as smart as people think. Neither one is a shining example of the best and brightest we have to offer as a country.

Obama is losing ground all the time because the first question of any election is "Does the incumbent deserve a second term?". Right now a majority of Americans say no. If the incumbent in strong, nobody is going to beat them. JFK wouldn't have beaten Reagan in 1984 and Reagan couldn't have beaten Clinton in 1996.

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Author: kenm47 Big funky green star, 20000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 1699526 of 1967148
Subject: Re: But...But...She's Stoopid Date: 9/21/2011 7:57 AM
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"Obama is losing ground all the time because the first question of any election is "Does the incumbent deserve a second term?". Right now a majority of Americans say no."

Got a link to specific polls asking that specific question?

Ken

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Author: wittgenstein Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 1699528 of 1967148
Subject: Re: But...But...She's Stoopid Date: 9/21/2011 8:05 AM
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...and Obama isn't as smart as people think.

Obama is really smart. How many people could talk their way from never having a real job to being elected to both congress and the presidency?

He's extremely smart. Now if he were only honest and not merely a determined ideologue.

Of course it helps that he is surrounded by an "admiring bog" that's convinced everyone who disagees with him is an idiot.


jz

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Author: cjb44 Big funky green star, 20000 posts 6 Year Anniversary! Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 1699532 of 1967148
Subject: Re: But...But...She's Stoopid Date: 9/21/2011 8:19 AM
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Got a link to specific polls asking that specific question?


_________________

Why, yes...yes I do.

http://www.sodahead.com/united-states/does-obama-deserve-a-s...

http://www.politicsdaily.com/2010/11/22/poll-obama-doesnt-de...

http://hotair.com/archives/2010/11/22/quinnipiac-poll-shows-...

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Author: alstroemeria Big gold star, 5000 posts Top Recommended Fools Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 1699533 of 1967148
Subject: Re: But...But...She's Stoopid Date: 9/21/2011 8:24 AM
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How many people could talk their way from never having a real job to being elected to both congress and the presidency?

Many people regard Professor of Constitutional Law at one of America's best law schools as not only a real job, but good preparation for developing our nation's laws.

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Author: kenm47 Big funky green star, 20000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 1699534 of 1967148
Subject: Re: But...But...She's Stoopid Date: 9/21/2011 8:25 AM
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The first one is from February 2010.

The second and third from November 2010.

Anything current? Anything showing any of the Republican possibles deserve to beat him in 2012?

Ken

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Author: wittgenstein Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 1699547 of 1967148
Subject: Re: But...But...She's Stoopid Date: 9/21/2011 9:01 AM
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Many people regard Professor of Constitutional Law at one of America's best law schools as not only a real job, but good preparation for developing our nation's laws.

I'm sure that's right. Certainly impressive sounding. The problem is it's not "real" in the critical sense that it would be appropriate experience for an executive, as opposed to a legislator. It's preaching and teaching, not doing. And the admiring bog is catching on and shrinking fast.

jz

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Author: CairnDad Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 1699552 of 1967148
Subject: Re: But...But...She's Stoopid Date: 9/21/2011 9:06 AM
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How many people could talk their way from never having a real job to being elected to both congress and the presidency?

LOL.

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Author: nigelwhalmsley Big gold star, 5000 posts Top Recommended Fools Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 1699560 of 1967148
Subject: Re: But...But...She's Stoopid Date: 9/21/2011 9:38 AM
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[ Joe the Idiot Plumber and Sarah, the twit half-governor. They're sure to win. ]

"Always nice to read the writings of a certified genius. Probably know how to fix a toilet too. Impressive."

Did Joe write a book as well? Now that IS impressive.

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Author: ramsfanray Big funky green star, 20000 posts Top Favorite Fools Top Recommended Fools Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 1699563 of 1967148
Subject: Re: But...But...She's Stoopid Date: 9/21/2011 9:45 AM
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Kind of shows how pathetic the field of announced GOP candidates is.

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Author: Vetiver Big gold star, 5000 posts Top Recommended Fools Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 1699587 of 1967148
Subject: Re: But...But...She's Stoopid Date: 9/21/2011 10:32 AM
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"I'm sure that's right. Certainly impressive sounding. The problem is it's not "real" in the critical sense that it would be appropriate experience for an executive..."

The biggest executive job Obama had, prior to being president was running his own campaign. He managed to hire to right folk and come up with the right strategy to defeat Clinton,who started with a seemingly insurmountable lead. Another consideration for an executive, is how they handle themselves in a crisis. McCain, had a chance until the banking collapse, then he more-or-less came apart. One of the beneficial aspects to Obama is that He reacts in a reasoned way, reacting at last rather than at first.

Harry Truman said that nothing prepares someone for being president like being president. The big problem Obama has has been letting go of his ideas about "post-partisan politics"... the political situation in Washington is not like any executive would face in any US corporation. Even for an experienced politician like Jerry Brown http://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/21/us/politics/brown-says-cal... the learning curve of dealing with the current embodiment of the republican party has been rather steep, "he couldn’t believe the narrowness or lack of comprehending by [Republicans]".

Obama's unpopularity originates with him continuing to acquiesce to republican ideas about the budget and economy. Many on the left feel that if Obama is going to allow the republicans to totally wreck the economy, there might as well be a republican president so republicans get credit for wrecking the economy. It appears that Obama has learned this lesson; but probably too late to do much about the economy prior to the 2012 election. In a normal situation, with unemployment being as high as it is, Obama would have absolutely no chance of being reelected. However, having gone through 8 years of George Bush, the country is not so anxious to double down on another Bush, so Obama has a real chance.

Unlike most elections, this one might actually get decided on policy issues which is Obama's only hope.


V.


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Author: SGIZ1 Big gold star, 5000 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 1699591 of 1967148
Subject: Re: But...But...She's Stoopid Date: 9/21/2011 10:36 AM
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Obama approval to a new all time low 40%

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Author: SGIZ1 Big gold star, 5000 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 1699593 of 1967148
Subject: Re: But...But...She's Stoopid Date: 9/21/2011 10:37 AM
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"Great pairing - Joe the Idiot Plumber and Sarah, the twit half-governor. They're sure to win.

One wonders how Rick Perry could possibly be at the top of the list with those two stars waiting in the wings. "

Doesn't make much sense to use this argument while supporting Obama who is going on 3 yrs. of incompetence.

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Author: LurkerMom Big funky green star, 20000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 1699655 of 1967148
Subject: Re: But...But...She's Stoopid Date: 9/21/2011 12:08 PM
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"Like I've been telling you...even Joe the Plumber can beat the prez."

Great pairing - Joe the Idiot Plumber and Sarah, the twit half-governor. They're sure to win.

One wonders how Rick Perry could possibly be at the top of the list with those two stars waiting in the wings.


____________________________________

Oh, right....

snip
"A generic Republican candidate holds a five-point advantage over President Obama in a hypothetical 2012 election match-up for the week ending Sunday, September 18. This is the 11th week in a row the Republican has led the incumbent."

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elec...


A faceless person in the crowd is beating the prez...I repeat, even Joe the Plumber can beat the prez.

To repeat your mean spirited hateful words...Idiot and twit...tells us how desperate you are to defend the failure prez. How pathetic.

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Author: nigelwhalmsley Big gold star, 5000 posts Top Recommended Fools Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 1699710 of 1967148
Subject: Re: But...But...She's Stoopid Date: 9/21/2011 3:14 PM
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"To repeat your mean spirited hateful words...Idiot and twit...tells us how desperate you are to defend the failure prez. How pathetic."

As the reigning queen of mean spirited words here, I bow to your expertise. However, those words, Idiot and Twit, would not apply to just anyone. They are especially reserved for people like Palin - or Bachmann, for that matter. Nutcase extremists, both, who have risen far beyond their capability. I should not have included Joe the Plumber, though. He was just a casualty of McCains' desperation during the last election.

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Author: NemesisToLibs Big funky green star, 20000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 1699711 of 1967148
Subject: Re: But...But...She's Stoopid Date: 9/21/2011 3:15 PM
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and Thug is reserved for Obama!

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Author: nigelwhalmsley Big gold star, 5000 posts Top Recommended Fools Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 1699720 of 1967148
Subject: Re: But...But...She's Stoopid Date: 9/21/2011 3:44 PM
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" and Thug is reserved for Obama! "

You should fervently hope you never meet a real thug.

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Author: LurkerMom Big funky green star, 20000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 1699723 of 1967148
Subject: Re: But...But...She's Stoopid Date: 9/21/2011 3:50 PM
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As the reigning queen of mean spirited words here,

links please? Just because I call it like it is about the prez it sends you into a tizzy. You don't see me following you around with your constant barrage of name calling of former President Bush except to laugh at you lefties to 'blame it on Bush' because you can't defend the prez.

Idiot and Twit, would not apply to just anyone. They are especially reserved for people like Palin - or Bachmann, for that matter

Yes, favorite words to use by the left, including you.

Nutcase extremists, both, who have risen far beyond their capability.

Right on...just like a community organizer.

I should not have included Joe the Plumber, though. He was just a casualty of McCains' desperation during the last election.

Oh NO...you have that wrong. Joe became a target of the prez and the left. You guys did a great job of character assassination on him because Joe asked the prez a question...a question the prez was too stoopid to give a coherent answer to.

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Author: nigelwhalmsley Big gold star, 5000 posts Top Recommended Fools Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 1699727 of 1967148
Subject: Re: But...But...She's Stoopid Date: 9/21/2011 3:59 PM
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[ As the reigning queen of mean spirited words here, ]

"links please?"

Hehe...Just reread your own posts.


[ Idiot and Twit, would not apply to just anyone. They are especially reserved for people like Palin - or Bachmann, for that matter ]

"Yes, favorite words to use by the left, including you."

Yes, I strive for accuracy. It is a habit.

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Author: LurkerMom Big funky green star, 20000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 1699737 of 1967148
Subject: Re: But...But...She's Stoopid Date: 9/21/2011 4:21 PM
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Hehe...Just reread your own posts.

Thought so...no links

Yes, I strive for accuracy. It is a habit.

Right...a habit of being mean-spirited...

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Author: TMFSpeck Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 1699750 of 1967148
Subject: Re: But...But...She's Stoopid Date: 9/21/2011 4:56 PM
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Like I've been telling you...even Joe the Plumber can beat the prez.

I've said it before, and I'll say it one more time (feel free to bookmark it):

The GOP has not yet fielded a candidate who can win the general election. That doesn't mean they won't, but none of the current crop will do it.

And certainly not Palin. There aren't even very many Republicans who would vote for her.

Speck

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Author: LurkerMom Big funky green star, 20000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 1699754 of 1967148
Subject: Re: But...But...She's Stoopid Date: 9/21/2011 5:03 PM
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I've said it before, and I'll say it one more time (feel free to bookmark it):

The GOP has not yet fielded a candidate who can win the general election. That doesn't mean they won't, but none of the current crop will do it.

And certainly not Palin. There aren't even very many Republicans who would vote for her.

Speck

_________________________________

I guess you missed my prior post in this thread where I said...

"snip
"A generic Republican candidate holds a five-point advantage over President Obama in a hypothetical 2012 election match-up for the week ending Sunday, September 18. This is the 11th week in a row the Republican has led the incumbent."

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elec......


A faceless person in the crowd is beating the prez...I repeat, even Joe the Plumber can beat the prez."

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Author: TMFSpeck Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 1699755 of 1967148
Subject: Re: But...But...She's Stoopid Date: 9/21/2011 5:11 PM
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I guess you missed my prior post in this thread where I said...

"snip
"A generic Republican candidate holds a five-point advantage over President Obama in a hypothetical 2012 election match-up for the week ending Sunday, September 18. This is the 11th week in a row the Republican has led the incumbent."


I guess you didn't read the rest of the article you originally posted:

While most of the Republicans have gained on Obama, he still leads all of the announced candidates.

"His saving grace right now has to do with fact that the GOP field has not yet demonstrated the appeal to capitalize on his weaknesses," said Miringoff.

Giuliani would do the best against the president, leading Obama by 49 percent to 42 percent. He trailed by 5 points in an August poll, and by 7 in June.

Obama is neck and neck with Romney, leading by 46-44. Obama had led by 5 points in August, 4 points in June, and 1 point in April. Romney now leads among independents, 44 percent to 40 percent.

Obama leads Perry by 50 percent to 41 percent. They split independents 43-43. Obama had led Perry by 19 points in August, as Perry was joining the campaign.

Obama leads Bachmann 53 percent to 40 percent. He had led her by 17 points in August, by 12 points in June.

Obama leads Palin by 49 percent to 44 percent. He led in August by 21 points, in June by 26 points, and in April by 22 points.

By 72 percent to 24 percent, Republicans and Republican-leaning independents do not want Palin to run for president in 2012. Even among tea party supporters - a group that likes Palin - 68 percent do not want her to run.



Read more: http://www.miamiherald.com/2011/09/20/v-fullstory/2417008/po...

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Author: TheDope1 Big funky green star, 20000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 1699756 of 1967148
Subject: Re: But...But...She's Stoopid Date: 9/21/2011 5:14 PM
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I've said it before, and I'll say it one more time (feel free to bookmark it):

The GOP has not yet fielded a candidate who can win the general election. That doesn't mean they won't, but none of the current crop will do it.


Either Perry or Romney could take Obama. You all keep vastly overestimating GOP weaknesses.

Honest question: Do you really believe that Obama is going to win all the states he got in 2008? 'Cause I'm here to tell you: he ain't getting FL, IN, IA, VA for sure and likely won't get NC and OH. Throw in NH and he's a 1-termer.

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Author: TheDope1 Big funky green star, 20000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 1699757 of 1967148
Subject: Re: But...But...She's Stoopid Date: 9/21/2011 5:16 PM
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Neither did you. The article clearly shows more than 1 Republican within striking distance of Obama, who is consistently under 50%.

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Author: ramsfanray Big funky green star, 20000 posts Top Favorite Fools Top Recommended Fools Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 1699758 of 1967148
Subject: Re: But...But...She's Stoopid Date: 9/21/2011 5:23 PM
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Honest question: Do you really believe that Obama is going to win all the states he got in 2008? 'Cause I'm here to tell you: he ain't getting FL, IN, IA, VA for sure and likely won't get NC and OH. Throw in NH and he's a 1-termer.

What's your track record on prediction elections over a year out?

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Author: TheDope1 Big funky green star, 20000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 1699759 of 1967148
Subject: Re: But...But...She's Stoopid Date: 9/21/2011 5:26 PM
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What's your track record on prediction elections over a year out?

Depends on the state. Yours will go for Obama. So will mine. Certain others will go the other way.

It's perfect valid to ask you all if you think Obama will win everything he got last time.

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Author: ramsfanray Big funky green star, 20000 posts Top Favorite Fools Top Recommended Fools Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 1699761 of 1967148
Subject: Re: But...But...She's Stoopid Date: 9/21/2011 5:30 PM
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RCP has a few state polls that have been taken. Most of them matching up either Romney or Perry against Obama.

Virgina, Missouri, and North Carolina are all still battleground states.

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Author: TMFSpeck Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 1699763 of 1967148
Subject: Re: But...But...She's Stoopid Date: 9/21/2011 5:44 PM
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Neither did you. The article clearly shows more than 1 Republican within striking distance of Obama, who is consistently under 50%.

Look at the Bush/Kerry matchup results from that election cycle: Kerry was outright winning in most polls in July, and was certainly within "striking distance" in many others after the momentum swung to Bush nearer the election.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry_hth.html

Point is that it's way too early to claim that "even Joe the Plumber could beat Obama". My feeling is that none of the declared GOP candidates have yet shown they can stand up to the incumbent in a general election, and I don't expect any will. A new candidate perhaps (Christie?), but certainly none of the current crop.

That's my (bookmarkable) .02,

Speck

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Author: LurkerMom Big funky green star, 20000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 1699764 of 1967148
Subject: Re: But...But...She's Stoopid Date: 9/21/2011 5:47 PM
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"While most of the Republicans have gained on Obama, he still leads all of the announced candidates."
____________________________________

The key words, 'Republicans have gained on Obama'....

The right is divided backing the candidate of their choice. Once there is a determined GOP winner for the nominee...well, watch out. They will all come together and back whoever wins. In other words...say good bye to the one term prez.

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Author: nigelwhalmsley Big gold star, 5000 posts Top Recommended Fools Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 1699766 of 1967148
Subject: Re: But...But...She's Stoopid Date: 9/21/2011 6:12 PM
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[ Hehe...Just reread your own posts. ]

"Thought so...no links"

Surely you can find your own posts without me. Surely.



[ Yes, I strive for accuracy. It is a habit. ]

" Right...a habit of being mean-spirited... "

You are the expert. 8-)

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Author: LurkerMom Big funky green star, 20000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 1699776 of 1967148
Subject: Re: But...But...She's Stoopid Date: 9/21/2011 7:03 PM
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Surely you can find your own posts without me. Surely.

What nigel is saying is he can't back up his claim...

You are the expert. 8-)

heh...nigel--->the pot and kettle all rolled up in one.

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Author: nigelwhalmsley Big gold star, 5000 posts Top Recommended Fools Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 1699780 of 1967148
Subject: Re: But...But...She's Stoopid Date: 9/21/2011 7:20 PM
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"What nigel is saying is he can't back up his claim..."

If you say so. 8-) Too funny...

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Author: LurkerMom Big funky green star, 20000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 1699785 of 1967148
Subject: Re: But...But...She's Stoopid Date: 9/21/2011 7:38 PM
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"What nigel is saying is he can't back up his claim..."

If you say so. 8-) Too funny...

______________________________________


Well, we are in agreement. Thank you.

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Author: Theobald64 Big red star, 1000 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 1699791 of 1967148
Subject: Re: But...But...She's Stoopid Date: 9/21/2011 8:01 PM
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What's your track record on prediction elections over a year out?

Well, mine is excellent. I made the call early that Obama would beat Clinton and I got told I was nuts. I somewhat underestimated Obama in the generals and had that as a toss-up. I called the turn in 94 and I called this last landslide almost perfectly (my major screw up was thinking that anyone could beat Harry Reid) - oh well.

On this one, let me make this plain, and take it to the bank chumps.

Unless there is a third party candidate, the GOP will win the Presidency with either Perry or Romney. If the GOP nominates Perry the GOP will get about 330 or so EV, if they nominate Romney, you are talking a trouncing of McGovernesque proportions.

And it gets better from there. The Democrats are virtually assured to lose the Senate, and it is 50/50 that they will be in the 55 to 57 seat range. Further, they will, unbelievably, actually lose house seats as well.

This is the price of 2 years of basically insulting and running down the middle 65% of the country. You know "the goobs", or "tea baggers", or whatever. You guys somehow managed to create a middle class populist movement against you, then, in the sin of sins, you mentally morphed these guys into a fictional right wing extremist group instead of taking the hint and triangulating toward the middle.

Yes, that's right guys, you guys have basically positioned the entire middle of the country against you.

Why? Mostly because you guys have a limitless ability to lie to yourselves.

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Author: TMFSpeck Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 1699815 of 1967148
Subject: Re: But...But...She's Stoopid Date: 9/21/2011 9:50 PM
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This is the price of 2 years of basically insulting and running down the middle 65% of the country. You know "the goobs", or "tea baggers", or whatever.

I think one miscalculation this time around is your thinking that the "tea baggers" are 65% of the country.

Speck <-- Proud member of the "middle 65%"

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Author: TMFSpeck Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 1699818 of 1967148
Subject: Re: But...But...She's Stoopid Date: 9/21/2011 9:56 PM
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One other thing:

"instead of taking the hint and triangulating toward the middle."

What I think you consider "the middle" these days was considered "right-wing extremism" not 20 years ago. I happen to think that the "real middle" sees the GOP candidates for what they are, and won't elect one over the incumbent in the general.

"Chump" or no, I'll see you here next November to compare notes ;-)

Speck

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Author: Theobald64 Big red star, 1000 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 1699824 of 1967148
Subject: Re: But...But...She's Stoopid Date: 9/21/2011 10:25 PM
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What I think you consider "the middle" these days was considered "right-wing extremism" not 20 years ago. I happen to think that the "real middle" sees the GOP candidates for what they are, and won't elect one over the incumbent in the general.

Nah, talk to some of the Tea Party types. They are mostly apolitical rubes who are just mad as hell. The self-deception your crew is engaging in is assuming that the guy in the freaking "Hug the Cook" shirt who brews his own beer is a freaking John Bircher. This is a total misperception and one, frankly, that the GOP is glad that you guys have.

"Chump" or no, I'll see you here next November to compare notes ;-)

Speck


I am sure you will, but trust me, I have heard it before and the bodies of political handicappers have been everywhere around me once I commit. The problem you guys have is that I tend to be right, quite a lot.

The kernel of the Democrats problem in the general election is that Obama has unrecoverable issues in the swing states. The only thing that can save him is a significant third party candidate that can bleed just enough votes from the GOP to let him squeak in.

Even if that happens, it will still be major political Armageddon for the Democrats, particularly in the Senate.

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Author: ramsfanray Big funky green star, 20000 posts Top Favorite Fools Top Recommended Fools Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 1699891 of 1967148
Subject: Re: But...But...She's Stoopid Date: 9/22/2011 9:23 AM
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It's perfect valid to ask you all if you think Obama will win everything he got last time.

Will he? I don't know.

Can he? You bet he can. That's why they are called battleground states. Because either side has the ability to win it.

My personal opinion? He may not win all of them, but he wins enough.

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Author: ramsfanray Big funky green star, 20000 posts Top Favorite Fools Top Recommended Fools Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 1699900 of 1967148
Subject: Re: But...But...She's Stoopid Date: 9/22/2011 9:35 AM
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You really think that 65% of the country supports the Tea Party? Is so, then your track record is about to take a major hit.

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Author: lindytoes Big gold star, 5000 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 1699969 of 1967148
Subject: Re: But...But...She's Stoopid Date: 9/22/2011 11:33 AM
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"Obama is losing ground all the time because the first question of any election is "Does the incumbent deserve a second term?". Right now a majority of Americans say no."

Got a link to specific polls asking that specific question?

Ken
-------------------------

AND what are the demographics of the respondents? I still say that if they are calling people with landlines, they are missing a large percentage of many, many different demographics. Everyone I know has a cell phone and most of those people do not have a landline, including lower middle class. Someone here will say they target cell phones, too. Please provide the proof in any survey you quote. My understanding is that it is expensive to do that and not that many polls employ cell phone respondents.

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Author: lindytoes Big gold star, 5000 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 1699974 of 1967148
Subject: Re: But...But...She's Stoopid Date: 9/22/2011 11:47 AM
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Got a link to specific polls asking that specific question?
_________________
Why, yes...yes I do.

http://www.sodahead.com/united-states/does-obama-deserve-a-s......
http://www.politicsdaily.com/2010/11/22/poll-obama-doesnt-de......
http://hotair.com/archives/2010/11/22/quinnipiac-poll-shows-......

----------------
Those are some of the most ridiculous links I have ever seen.

The first one was 2/17/10, the second and third were 11/22/10 and here is what's important about why those are stupid links (from the second link):

"It's an exercise probably more useful in gauging what voters think of them today than how they might feel next year.

That's particularly true in the race for the GOP nomination, but it's also true for the matchups with Obama because of the number of variables, ranging from the direction of the economy, whether the new empowerment of Republicans on Capitol Hill makes the most of their new status or disappoints voters, to the whole constellation of unforeseen events, (like the financial meltdown in 2008)."


I am not a pollster nor any kind of political expert, BUT even I know that polls taken this far out mean very little except how the candidates can change their strategy to improve those numbers. That includes the Republican candidates who might actually have better polling next year at this time than Obama. We can't know what is going to happen a year from now. Just ask John McCain what he thought his chances of winning the Presidency were in the summer of 2008.

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Author: lowstudent Big funky green star, 20000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 1700036 of 1967148
Subject: Re: But...But...She's Stoopid Date: 9/22/2011 1:39 PM
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Honest question: Do you really believe that Obama is going to win all the states he got in 2008? 'Cause I'm here to tell you: he ain't getting FL, IN, IA, VA for sure and likely won't get NC and OH. Throw in NH and he's a 1-termer.
_________________

Let them take solace that Obama polls well and wins against all but Romney.

You know it means nothing except that a lot of Republicans and Independents want one candidate or the other and are reacting negatively to their choice not being the candidate.

When it comes time to pull the lever for Obama, or someone else?

The polling means nothing right now, wrt Obama's standing.

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Author: ramsfanray Big funky green star, 20000 posts Top Favorite Fools Top Recommended Fools Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 1700060 of 1967148
Subject: Re: But...But...She's Stoopid Date: 9/22/2011 2:19 PM
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The polling means nothing right now, wrt Obama's standing.

I hope you realize that goes both ways.

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Author: lindytoes Big gold star, 5000 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 1700589 of 1967148
Subject: Re: But...But...She's Stoopid Date: 9/23/2011 10:22 PM
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Like I've been telling you...even Joe the Plumber can beat the prez.

I've said it before, and I'll say it one more time (feel free to bookmark it):

The GOP has not yet fielded a candidate who can win the general election. That doesn't mean they won't, but none of the current crop will do it.

And certainly not Palin. There aren't even very many Republicans who would vote for her.

Speck
-------------------
Political analyst on NBC News tonight said Christie still takes calls from high level Republicans begging him to run.

That was after they ran a piece on the Republican debacle...I mean debate...last night.

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Author: lindytoes Big gold star, 5000 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 1700590 of 1967148
Subject: Re: But...But...She's Stoopid Date: 9/23/2011 10:28 PM
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Honest question: Do you really believe that Obama is going to win all the states he got in 2008? 'Cause I'm here to tell you: he ain't getting FL, IN, IA, VA for sure and likely won't get NC and OH. Throw in NH and he's a 1-termer.
----------------
What's your track record on prediction elections over a year out?

-------------------

I'd like to know that too. I just happened to be leaving dinner in September 2007 in Washington DC. There was a big crowd outside just a block away so I wandered over to see what was going on. Someone told me it was a campaign rally. I walked over and shook Obama's hand as he made the rounds along the crowd (I missed his speech).

I went back to Georgia and told everyone I shook his hand. I had no idea who he was. I even laughed and said I probably just shook the hand of the next President. No way did I believe that.

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Author: Theobald64 Big red star, 1000 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 1700622 of 1967148
Subject: Re: But...But...She's Stoopid Date: 9/24/2011 7:33 AM
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Honest question: Do you really believe that Obama is going to win all the states he got in 2008? 'Cause I'm here to tell you: he ain't getting FL, IN, IA, VA for sure and likely won't get NC and OH. Throw in NH and he's a 1-termer.
----------------
What's your track record on prediction elections over a year out?

-------------------

I'd like to know that too. I just happened to be leaving dinner in September 2007 in Washington DC. There was a big crowd outside just a block away so I wandered over to see what was going on. Someone told me it was a campaign rally. I walked over and shook Obama's hand as he made the rounds along the crowd (I missed his speech).

I went back to Georgia and told everyone I shook his hand. I had no idea who he was. I even laughed and said I probably just shook the hand of the next President. No way did I believe that.


On the the first statement, you have to divvy up the PA left here. About 75% of these people are freaking clueless. I mean they probably went to college and all that, but they really, from a factual basis, do not have clue #1 what they are talking about. The other 25% have some grasp with reality, but they are "putting on the brave face" and denying it until it shows up. So, privately, they are fairly rational, can read the data, and can recognize a trend and are not so mentally damaged as to not be able to put 2 and 2 together. Publicly, they will put on the "braveface" and lie their a** off.

One guy I know would tell not just lies, but over the top whoppers, and then, 20 minutes later , would chuckle about how he knew he was lying but the GOP was lying as well so he felt that one lie deserved another. That attitude is rampant on here as well.

So, 75% of these people believe whatever you tell them and don't bother to read or check. To them they really do believe that VA, NC and FL will go to the Democrats. The other 25% support them but don't really buy it and will never say so. Party loyalty trumps speaking the truth I guess.

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Author: feedmeNOWhuman Big funky green star, 20000 posts Old School Fool CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 1834428 of 1967148
Subject: Re: But...But...She's Stoopid Date: 11/8/2012 4:04 PM
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What's your track record on prediction elections over a year out?

theobald: Well, mine is excellent. I made the call early that Obama would beat Clinton and I got told I was nuts. I somewhat underestimated Obama in the generals and had that as a toss-up. I called the turn in 94 and I called this last landslide almost perfectly (my major screw up was thinking that anyone could beat Harry Reid) - oh well.

On this one, let me make this plain, and take it to the bank chumps.

Unless there is a third party candidate, the GOP will win the Presidency with either Perry or Romney. If the GOP nominates Perry the GOP will get about 330 or so EV, if they nominate Romney, you are talking a trouncing of McGovernesque proportions.




OK, I'm at the bank.


And it gets better from there. The Democrats are virtually assured to lose the Senate, and it is 50/50 that they will be in the 55 to 57 seat range. Further, they will, unbelievably, actually lose house seats as well.




I'm still at the bank.


This is the price of 2 years of basically insulting and running down the middle 65% of the country. You know "the goobs", or "tea baggers", or whatever. You guys somehow managed to create a middle class populist movement against you, then, in the sin of sins, you mentally morphed these guys into a fictional right wing extremist group instead of taking the hint and triangulating toward the middle.

Yes, that's right guys, you guys have basically positioned the entire middle of the country against you.




Hey, meet me at the bank, will you? I have four more years plus some Senate and House seats to deposit.

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