=======================================I'm almost ashamed to suggest this, but I'm looking into the value of the Turkish Lira ... While the Turks will never really fully recover from the horrors of this tragic earthquake, they will certainly come up with the 7 or so billion it will take to recover financially. Even though Turkey is not considered morally or fiscally worthy of joining the EU, it is too close to Europe to fall apart completely. Therefore, Turkey is likely to get significan assistance from its neighbors.So, considering the circumstances, I'm looking into converting some dollars or sterling into TL's for, say, a year or so while they rebuild. I assume the value of the TL has plumetted, but cannot find decent historical data. Any views on how to research whether this idea makes sense?=======================================
This makes me sick. I've been trying for years to invest with "ethical" partners, and then profiteers such as yourself explain to others how there is a killing to be made in trading on the back of an unfortunate natural disaster.Hasn't there been enough death in Turkey already, without you and your ilk killing their currency too?
Hi from Ankara!First, speaking as a Turk, who carried medicine and other equipment to Avcilar and Sakarya, I want to say it is my belief that investing should not involve emotions. There is a difference between profiting from rational analysis and profiting from causing misery. We can all feel humanely sorry for what has happened in Izmit (I urge everybody to participate in charity), and, at the same time, not loose our identity as investors.I won't, considering the purpose of this message board, go into an argument over Turkey's political prospects.Second, I don't know how you came up with the idea of buying TL. Beware the high inflation in Turkey. The way I see it, my country's currency is doomed to plummet into depths even lower. I would strongly suggest, though, that you look into stocks of Turkish companies that produce cement, bricks, glass, and other construction materials, which are, in my opinion, sure to appreciate heavily in a year's term.Best of Luck
Hi K. Hays,I sincerely believe there is nothing to be ashamed of / nothing to beoffended at. Thank you for your concerns.The earthquake costed Turkey 7-8 billions of US dollars and damaged thecountry's industrial base (Izmit). The way I reason is that a currency goesup in value relative to other international currencies, when exports rise,which increases the international demand for the currency, bidding up theprice. I believe the production losses will pull down Turkish exports,while pushing up imports into the country (both to compensate for the lossof production and out of necessity for goods & services in the earthquakeaffected areas), which Turkey will have to finance by selling Turkish liras.In addition to these earthquake related factors, there already exists a highlevel of inflation in Turkey, the Turkish lira loosing value against the USDollar (and British Sterlin) year after year.Buying Turkish liras would, in my opinion, actually help the country financeits losses and economic recovery, being beneficial in the short-term (forTurkey). However, from an individual investor's point of view, it is veryrisky and could involve losses of real value up to, well, 50-60%. It mightbe a good idea to short TL.If you feel inclined make some more research, below are a few Turkishon-line resources (also available in English):http://www.imkb.gov.tr - official web page of the Istanbul stock exchangehttp://www.tradecnet-free.com - private information sourcehttp://www.demiryatirim.com.tr - on-line brokerage firm, there are manymore, but I think this is the most popular one (the English button is alittle hard to notice)If you make some money, you could maybe give part of it as charity for theearthquake stricken areas (I have no idea how you could do that from US/UK,you could ask IMKB or Demiryatirim).With Best Regards,Ali I. Izbul---------->From: Hays Family <email@example.com>>To: "'Aliizbul@turk.net'" <Aliizbul@turk.net>>Subject: RE: The Motley Fool Message Boards - Reply to Your Message>Date: Sun, Sep 26, 1999, 11:55 PM>> Hi Aliizbul...>> I have been ashamed of sending that e-mail to discuss the prospect of> buying Turkish currency since I pushed the button.>> To be honest, I don't know anything about trading currency and I was just> curious how such a tragedy would affect Turkey's economy (both short and> long term).>> Sorry, I hope I did not offend you too much.>> Your country is certainly in our prayers.>> I wish you all the best,> K. Hays> -----Original Message-----> From: Aliizbul@turk.net [SMTP:Aliizbul@turk.net]> Sent: Sunday, September 26, 1999 5:23 PM> To: firstname.lastname@example.org> Subject: The Motley Fool Message Boards - Reply to Your Message>> Aliizbul replied to your message at> http://boards.fool.com/message.asp?id=1050010000088000 and opted to> have it e-mailed to you.>> Subject: Re: Buy Turkish Currency ??>> Hi from Ankara!>> First, speaking as a Turk, who carried medicine and other equipment to> Avcilar and Sakarya, I want to say it is my belief that investing should> not involve emotions. There is a difference between profiting from> rational analysis and profiting from causing misery. We can all feel> humanely sorry for what has happened in Izmit (I urge everybody to> participate in charity), and, at the same time, not loose our identity as> investors.>> I won't, considering the purpose of this message board, go into an> argument over Turkey's political prospects.>> Second, I don't know how you came up with the idea of buying TL. Beware> the high inflation in Turkey. The way I see it, my country's currency is> doomed to plummet into depths even lower. I would strongly suggest,> though, that you look into stocks of Turkish companies that produce> cement, bricks, glass, and other construction materials, which are, in my> opinion, sure to appreciate heavily in a year's term.>> Best of Luck>>
Here's an investment anyone can make -- an investment in the relief of human suffering. I'm an American living in another very earthquake-prone part of the world, California. When Kosovo exploded in warfare, and again when Turkey was devastated by the earthquake, I gave what I could afford to give to Doctors Without Borders, website: http://www.dwb.org/index.htmThere is a link from their home page for "Turkey Earthquake Relief" (and links for East Timor, Kosovo, Congo, Angola, others). So you can target your donation. There is a toll-free number or you can make a secure credit card donation directly at the website.There are many other worthy organizations. I like this one because they go where people are hurting, regardless of the politics or the danger, and immediately relieve suffering. I'm not a doctor or a member of the organization, just an admirer.I intend to make another small donation for East Timor soon, and others whenever I can.In the meantime, bless you and your loved ones in Turkey. We are thinking of you half-way around the world.
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