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Cabrera is worth $30 million a year now, but ten years is a very long time. I'll be surprised if he's worth that when he's 38-39-40.

"Worth" is relative.

Yes it is. A marginal win is worth about $5 million. Cabrera's WAR last year was 7.6. This year and next, it will probably be higher because he'll play 1B and DH instead of 3B. (Cabrera is a liability at 3B.) Call it at least 8 wins-above replacement. That's worth $40 million on the free-agent market. Hard to predict his durability and how well he will age, but the likelihood that he'll be a 7 WAR player after age 35 is no better than 50-50. Typical peak age for a hitter is 30-31 years old. Cabrera turns 31 next month.
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