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Author: bcairns Big funky green star, 20000 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 1878734  
Subject: Cairns Conjecture Date: 11/18/2012 8:25 AM
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In a two party republic, one party will represent the general interest and the other will represent special interests. The beginning of the end is when the special interests party becomes the majority.

(We are right at the tipping point.)
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Author: PeterRabit Big funky green star, 20000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 1838188 of 1878734
Subject: Re: Cairns Conjecture Date: 11/18/2012 5:23 PM
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I figure that you believe that huge corporations and rich investors are NOT a special interest.

Peter

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Author: ModernViking Big gold star, 5000 posts Top Recommended Fools Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 1838255 of 1878734
Subject: Re: Cairns Conjecture Date: 11/18/2012 7:23 PM
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In a two party republic, one party will represent the general interest and the other will represent special interests.

I can only imagine what cistern you drew this sweet treat from. What is a democracy besides a collective amalgam of "special interests"? What is the "general interest", if not what the majority (a Venn diagram of overlapping "special interests") deems it to be?



The beginning of the end is when the special interests party becomes the majority.

(We are right at the tipping point.)


You guys keep trying. You've even taken over one of the major political parties and have come shockingly close to simultaneously hijacking the Executive, Legislative, and Judicial branches. But like the tenacious heroes in a grade-B zombie flick, the American people seem to keep finding a way around being inflicted a fatal bite.

When people like you are pleased with the course of American politics, we will have the tipping point of which you speak in our rearview mirror. Consider your personal usefulness as a contrarian indicator.

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Author: bcairns Big funky green star, 20000 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 1838391 of 1878734
Subject: Re: Cairns Conjecture Date: 11/19/2012 7:04 AM
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I figure that you believe that huge corporations and rich investors are NOT a special interest.

They're not. But more importantly, they don't own either party or they own both depending on your thing. In other words, they are not relevant to the topic which is who owns the parties:

Republicans: Men, Seniors, Married Women, Employed people, The military.

Democrats: Hyphenated Americans, The inexperienced, The unemployed, Unmarried women.

You can try to spin it, but it's pretty hard to deny.

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Author: albaby1 Big gold star, 5000 posts Top Favorite Fools Feste Award Nominee! Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 1838402 of 1878734
Subject: Re: Cairns Conjecture Date: 11/19/2012 8:44 AM
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Republicans: Men, Seniors, Married Women, Employed people, The military.

Democrats: Hyphenated Americans, The inexperienced, The unemployed, Unmarried women.

You can try to spin it, but it's pretty hard to deny.


It is not accurate to put "employed people" in the Republican camp. The full-time employed split evenly in this last election, voting Democratic and Republican in equal numbers:

http://boards.fool.com/who-obama-won-with-is-in-fact-the-non...

Albaby

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Author: bcairns Big funky green star, 20000 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 1838405 of 1878734
Subject: Re: Cairns Conjecture Date: 11/19/2012 8:51 AM
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It is not accurate to put "employed people" in the Republican camp.

At first blush I thought this can't be. Then I put it in the context of retired people being solidly Republican and it made sense. That said, the employed MUST BE much more Republican than the unemployed if retired people are solidly Republican and working people are evenly split and the country is evenly split.

So I think it's still fair to put working people in the Republican column since it IS a major differentiator.

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Author: albaby1 Big gold star, 5000 posts Top Favorite Fools Feste Award Nominee! Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 1838414 of 1878734
Subject: Re: Cairns Conjecture Date: 11/19/2012 9:31 AM
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So I think it's still fair to put working people in the Republican column since it IS a major differentiator.

Except it's not true. Working people split exactly evenly between the GOP and Democrats. I'm not sure why you went through all that effort to speculate about the breakdowns like that. They had a direct category for the employed, and they split evenly. It's not a differentiator at all - working people were just as likely to vote D as R.

Albany

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Author: xLife Big funky green star, 20000 posts Top Recommended Fools Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 1838419 of 1878734
Subject: Re: Cairns Conjecture Date: 11/19/2012 9:46 AM
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The beginning of the end is when the special interests party becomes the majority.

Funny sentence and a very weird notion. Kind of Orwellian double speak to call the majority a special interest.

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Author: nigelwhalmsley Big gold star, 5000 posts Top Recommended Fools Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 1838421 of 1878734
Subject: Re: Cairns Conjecture Date: 11/19/2012 9:51 AM
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"That said, the employed MUST BE much more Republican than the unemployed if retired people are solidly Republican and working people are evenly split and the country is evenly split."


This kind of flawed logic led Mitt to plan for a victory celebration.

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Author: bcairns Big funky green star, 20000 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 1838423 of 1878734
Subject: Re: Cairns Conjecture Date: 11/19/2012 9:53 AM
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It's not a differentiator at all - working people were just as likely to vote D as R.

I understand the data point, but not your interpretation. Non-working, non-retired people are heavily Democratic. Therefore, non-working (non-retired) people are on team Blue. And by implication, working people are on team red.

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Author: albaby1 Big gold star, 5000 posts Top Favorite Fools Feste Award Nominee! Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 1838433 of 1878734
Subject: Re: Cairns Conjecture Date: 11/19/2012 10:40 AM
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And by implication, working people are on team red.

But by direct measurement, they are not. Employed people voted Democratic in equal numbers as they did Republican. I understand you're having trouble integrating that into what you imagine the Democratic coalition to be, but it's just not the case that employed people voted Republican more than Democratic.

Albaby

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Author: bcairns Big funky green star, 20000 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 1838439 of 1878734
Subject: Re: Cairns Conjecture Date: 11/19/2012 10:50 AM
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And by implication, working people are on team red.

But by direct measurement, they are not.

Fine. To avoid confusion, I've reformulated.

Team Red: Seniors, the military, men, married women.

Team Blue: Hyphenated Americans, youngsters, the unemployed, unmarried women, government workers.

Which one do you want to be on? Enough said.

(I can accept "neither" as an answer but not "blue".)

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Author: xLife Big funky green star, 20000 posts Top Recommended Fools Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 1838446 of 1878734
Subject: Re: Cairns Conjecture Date: 11/19/2012 11:04 AM
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Fine. To avoid confusion, I've reformulated.

Team Red: Seniors, the military, men, married women.


More reformulation is necessary. Only about 40% of the military consider themselves on "Team Red." On the other hand, the officer corps is 2-to-1 Republican.

And you could easily simplify.

Team Red: old, white, evangelical Christians.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/special/politics/2012-e...

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Author: bcairns Big funky green star, 20000 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 1838447 of 1878734
Subject: Re: Cairns Conjecture Date: 11/19/2012 11:10 AM
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Only about 40% of the military consider themselves on "Team Red."

Nope. 2 to 1 for Romney. In fact, this may be the strongest component of Team Red.

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Author: sano Big gold star, 5000 posts Top Recommended Fools Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 1838451 of 1878734
Subject: Re: Cairns Conjecture Date: 11/19/2012 11:18 AM
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I understand you're having trouble integrating that...

LOL.

Albaby, your patience and demeanor are commendable.

I keep hoping you'll cause a breakthrough, but know that as soon as the Rush Limbaugh show begins this morning, all your patiently presented facts will be washed away like sandcastles on a rising tide.

When the tide falls you'll be facing a tidal flat littered with randomly scattered piles of flotsam and jetsam.

Noble effort, amigo.

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Author: Jeanwa Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 1838452 of 1878734
Subject: Re: Cairns Conjecture Date: 11/19/2012 11:19 AM
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I pick my team by what they stand for, not by who else is on the team.

Jean...Non-hyphenated American, exmilitary, married woman, employed.

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Author: sano Big gold star, 5000 posts Top Recommended Fools Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 1838453 of 1878734
Subject: Re: Cairns Conjecture Date: 11/19/2012 11:22 AM
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Only about 40% of the military consider themselves on "Team Red."

Nope. 2 to 1 for Romney


If that's true, how does one reconcile the fact that campaign donations from military/DoD individuals went overwhelmingly to Obama's campaign?

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Author: AlphaWolf Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 1838455 of 1878734
Subject: Re: Cairns Conjecture Date: 11/19/2012 11:24 AM
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At first blush I thought this can't be. Then I put it in the context of retired people being solidly Republican and it made sense.

Great.

I guess unskewing polls went so well for you that now you've decided to unskew facts.


AW

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Author: eatenbybears Big funky green star, 20000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 1838456 of 1878734
Subject: Re: Cairns Conjecture Date: 11/19/2012 11:25 AM
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If that's true, how does one reconcile the fact that campaign donations from military/DoD individuals went overwhelmingly to Obama's campaign?

Obama previously had done fund raising in Chicago

Romney previously did fund raising in Utah and Massachusetts


Bears

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Author: sano Big gold star, 5000 posts Top Recommended Fools Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 1838459 of 1878734
Subject: Re: Cairns Conjecture Date: 11/19/2012 11:30 AM
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Obama previously had done fund raising in Chicago..Romney previously did fund raising in Utah and Massachusetts

Are you trying to suggest that military personnel form Illinois are different than military personnel from Massachusetts?

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Author: AngelMay Big funky green star, 20000 posts Top Favorite Fools Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 1838460 of 1878734
Subject: Re: Cairns Conjecture Date: 11/19/2012 11:49 AM
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Are you trying to suggest that military personnel form Illinois are different than military personnel from Massachusetts?

--------


Well, of course they are.
Peeps from Mass talk funny.

:)


AM

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Author: xLife Big funky green star, 20000 posts Top Recommended Fools Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 1838461 of 1878734
Subject: Re: Cairns Conjecture Date: 11/19/2012 11:52 AM
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More reformulation is necessary. Only about 40% of the military consider themselves on "Team Red." On the other hand, the officer corps is 2-to-1 Republican.
---
Nope. 2 to 1 for Romney. In fact, this may be the strongest component of Team Red.


Up to your old tricks -- editing out salient points in my posts and replying to them out of context.

Anyway... yes, as I said, the professional core of the military is predominantly Republican. But the military in general, not so much anymore. Like the rest of the country in general, young and non-white soldiers and sailors are abandoning the GOP.

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Author: bcairns Big funky green star, 20000 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 1838472 of 1878734
Subject: Re: Cairns Conjecture Date: 11/19/2012 12:32 PM
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I pick my team by what they stand for, not by who else is on the team.

That's probably a mistake. The wisdom of crowds and all that.

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Author: bcairns Big funky green star, 20000 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 1838473 of 1878734
Subject: Re: Cairns Conjecture Date: 11/19/2012 12:36 PM
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Up to your old tricks

Uh, no. Warriors voted 2-1 for Romney. Thus my saying warriors are on Team Red. What's YOUR point?

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Author: crassfool Big funky green star, 20000 posts Feste Award Nominee! Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 1838567 of 1878734
Subject: Re: Cairns Conjecture Date: 11/19/2012 3:23 PM
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someone says

Republicans: Men, Seniors, Married Women, Employed people, The military.

Democrats: Hyphenated Americans, The inexperienced, The unemployed, Unmarried women.


I am a man, a senior, and employed. Wy wife is a married woman, a senior, and employed. We both vote Democratic.

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Author: 99lashes Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 1838571 of 1878734
Subject: Re: Cairns Conjecture Date: 11/19/2012 3:26 PM
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I am a man, a senior, and employed. Wy wife is a married woman, a senior, and employed. We both vote Democratic.

I hear the learning curve is long for some.

99

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Author: Gingko100 Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 1838670 of 1878734
Subject: Re: Cairns Conjecture Date: 11/19/2012 7:39 PM
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Team Blue: Hyphenated Americans, youngsters, the unemployed, unmarried women, government workers.

Which one do you want to be on? Enough said.

I'm perfectly fine being as I am. A single Jewish-American who runs my own business. And yeah, I'm just as American as a married stay-at-home mom. And - oh yeah - I'm one of those "job creators:" the Republicans might like to have vote for them. Except - according to your statement above - the guys you could really give a bleep about me. So yeah, not going to vote for people who blatantly say, "we don't want you - and you are not one of "us."

That partisan dividing behavior is complete nonsense by the way. I work with blue collar tradespeople, and people of all kinds and we get along great. Partly because I don't make dismissive statements about them based on silly preconceptions.

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Author: wittgenstein Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 1838672 of 1878734
Subject: Re: Cairns Conjecture Date: 11/19/2012 7:43 PM
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That partisan dividing behavior is complete nonsense by the way. I work with blue collar tradespeople, and people of all kinds and we get along great. Partly because I don't make dismissive statements about them based on silly preconceptions.

My silly posts - as above -notwithstanding, I agree completely with you.

jz

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Author: FoolishVintner Two stars, 250 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 1838710 of 1878734
Subject: Re: Cairns Conjecture Date: 11/19/2012 11:33 PM
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In a two party republic, one party will represent the general interest and the other will represent special interests. The beginning of the end is when the special interests party becomes the majority.

The Republican party has indeed been the party of special interest for as long as I've been observing politics. The oil companies, the health care lobby, the gun manufacturers and NRA, nuclear power, billionaries, uneducated whites, yacht manufacturers, hedge funds, AM tabloid radio shows, bible belt snake handlers, Mormons, and the Cayman Islands financial services proviers.

Surely, the Democrats do represent some of their own special interests (trial lawyers, the labor movement, environmentalists, scientists, educated people...). But nothing in comparison to the GOP. By your conjecture then, the promising results of this last election indicate that the end is far from near.

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Author: olRoger One star, 50 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 1838715 of 1878734
Subject: Re: Cairns Conjecture Date: 11/20/2012 12:44 AM
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When I was following the thread, I did not understand that the party of special interests was not Republican party. I voted "anybody but Romney". I really wish the Dems had replaced Obama.

Of course, as Rubio has recently stated, "Whether the Earth was created in 7 days, or 7 actual eras, I'm not sure we'll ever be able to answer that." Uh, uh, I mean ostrich or incompetent or dedicated to a forth generation translation (original [actually multiple languages] -> Greek -> Latin -> English) of non-technical societies world concept. But we do not use medicine or construction or government frmm that period (well those periods actually). But this inaccurate translation is now taken to be the literal truth. The real question is 7 literal days vs 7 eras.

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/marco-rubio-earth-age-republi...

Recently married, professional and employed (and borderline senior). Recently changed part to decline to state. A party which is anti-science and technology in a country that has made significant advances in science and technology, ....

o R

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Author: jakalant Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 1838719 of 1878734
Subject: Re: Cairns Conjecture Date: 11/20/2012 1:29 AM
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I am a man close to senior employed and grateful to be able to vote Democratic.

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Author: JoshRandall Big gold star, 5000 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 1838748 of 1878734
Subject: Re: Cairns Conjecture Date: 11/20/2012 10:08 AM
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I pick my team by what they stand for

Thank God for that. Now gimme my free stuff!

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Author: DufusGoneSplat Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 1838801 of 1878734
Subject: Re: Cairns Conjecture Date: 11/20/2012 12:52 PM
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Team Red: Seniors, the military, men, married women.

Team Blue: Hyphenated Americans, youngsters, the unemployed, unmarried women, government workers.


Are you saying that the military aren't government workers - hired by the government, paid by the government, benefits by the government, etc?

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Author: bcairns Big funky green star, 20000 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 1838806 of 1878734
Subject: Re: Cairns Conjecture Date: 11/20/2012 1:04 PM
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Are you saying that the military aren't government workers - hired by the government, paid by the government, benefits by the government, etc?

Um, no. I guess you're one of those people that needs every detail spelled out for them. That must suck.

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Author: DufusGoneSplat Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 1838814 of 1878734
Subject: Re: Cairns Conjecture Date: 11/20/2012 1:24 PM
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Are you saying that the military aren't government workers - hired by the government, paid by the government, benefits by the government, etc?

Um, no. I guess you're one of those people that needs every detail spelled out for them. That must suck.


I was just checking to see if you meant what you wrote, or if we needed to read your mind.

So "Team Blue" includes government workers like police, fire-persons, nurses, etc? And "Team Blue" includes government workers like executive, legislative and judicial branches of federal, state and local governments for example? These are the types of people you lump together with Hyphenated Americans, The inexperienced, The unemployed, Unmarried women? Interesting.

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Author: sassygirl6 Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 1838861 of 1878734
Subject: Re: Cairns Conjecture Date: 11/20/2012 3:32 PM
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Republicans: Men, Seniors, Married Women, Employed people, The military.

Democrats: Hyphenated Americans, The inexperienced, The unemployed, Unmarried women.


Your Cairns Conjecture is a delusion.

I'm a married, working American (a business owner for the past 10 years, as it happens), and non-hyphenated anything.

Yeah. A white, working, married woman who votes Democratic. Stick that in your steaming pile of anectdata.


Sass

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Author: juliewinter Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 1838913 of 1878734
Subject: Re: Cairns Conjecture Date: 11/20/2012 7:31 PM
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A white, working, married woman who votes Democratic. Stick that in your steaming pile of anectdata.

________
What Sass said.

jwinter, another inexplicably Democrat voting white, working two jobs, married woman.

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Author: 0x6a74 Big funky green star, 20000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 1838980 of 1878734
Subject: Re: Cairns Conjecture Date: 11/21/2012 2:20 AM
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Stick that in your steaming pile of anectdata.




" steaming pile of anectdata"--- love it!
stealing it...
SPA

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Author: bcairns Big funky green star, 20000 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 1838984 of 1878734
Subject: Re: Cairns Conjecture Date: 11/21/2012 5:47 AM
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I'm a married, working American (a business owner for the past 10 years, as it happens), and non-hyphenated anything.

Yeah. A white, working, married woman who votes Democratic. Stick that in your steaming pile of anectdata.


MY anectdata?

ROFPMPLOL

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Author: cevera1 Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 1838996 of 1878734
Subject: Re: Cairns Conjecture Date: 11/21/2012 8:59 AM
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Republicans: Men, Seniors, Married Women, Employed people, The military.

Democrats: Hyphenated Americans, The inexperienced, The unemployed, Unmarried women.


I've seen this 'Conjecture' hammered hard over the last few days and I would add another anecdotal rebuttal. Two middle class white IT professionals voted for Obama - my wife and I. I am ex-military and come from a military family. My mother has voted Republican her entire life until the last two elections. She is a Senior and a retired military spouse.

My own limited personal observations of family and friends in my Red State: Everyone talks a big game about deficits, balanced budgets, and fiscal responsibility but when you actually talk to these folks and read their 'reasoning' on their social media pages it boils down to 'Christian values' and 'God's plan' for our Nation. Pray Hard before you vote. Put the White back in the White House - wink, wink. God will abandon us if we don't vote 'his' will, which laughingly, was for an extremely wealthy Mormon. By the way, Mormons down here got to bask in the spotlight for several months. Dare I say it was almost hip to be a Mormon. Now, not so much.

We had a very expensive, hard fought battle for a state senate seat in Texas that garnered National attention. Wendy Davis(D) vs Mark Shelton(R). The county was solid Red and Republicans were desperate to win the seat as it would have effectively removed Democrats from the legislative process (republican super majority). What is funny about the result is that it is damn near impossible for a Democrat to win without a large swing of white votes in that race as the county went red for most other candidates. A local political columnist had a humorous look at the results and it appears that a lot of white married women didn't vote straight ticket for the GOP..... at least in this one instance. And you have to wonder what they told their husbands later that night. "I can't understand how she won, either. I voted straight ticket... just like we agreed."

Cliff

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Author: bcairns Big funky green star, 20000 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 1839000 of 1878734
Subject: Re: Cairns Conjecture Date: 11/21/2012 9:09 AM
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I appreciate your story, but it doesn't change the facts regarding whether the coalitions I outlined define the parties. Of course there are Democrats in the military, for example, just as there are Republican bums and young Republicans and even Hispanic Republicans.

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Author: 1poorguy Big funky green star, 20000 posts Top Recommended Fools Old School Fool CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 1839045 of 1878734
Subject: Re: Cairns Conjecture Date: 11/21/2012 11:43 AM
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You can try to spin it, but it's pretty hard to deny.

What a load of crap. That the GOP deliberately antagonized those groups is the GOP's failing, not that of the electorate. That the GOP has become the party of xenophobia and misogyny is entirely their own doing, and will continue to alienate the electorate for the foreseeable future.

Adding to sassygirl:

I'm ex-military (USN).
I'm male.
I'm not hyphenated. (White of northern European ancestry.)
I'm extremely well-educated.
I'm employed (non-union).
I'm married.
I'm pushing 50 yrs old (hardly "inexperienced").

And the last two elections I voted Democratic for POTUS. However, I'm not so unsophisticated as to vote a straight party-line. I actually think about my votes, and have voted for both Dems and Reps (and independents, too) for various offices since I was old enough to vote.

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Author: pixiecakes Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 1839094 of 1878734
Subject: Re: Cairns Conjecture Date: 11/21/2012 1:39 PM
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Republicans: Men, Seniors, Married Women, Employed people, The military.

Democrats: Hyphenated Americans, The inexperienced, The unemployed, Unmarried women.


Hmmm. I'm a white, employed, senior married woman from a military family and I vote Democrat. Who's trying to deny things here, now?

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