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I made a calculation of what the profit potential of the LUPUS drug could be worth today ...

I used the following assumptions :

Population :

* Lupus drug gets approved in 2003
* Lupus population accounts to 1,000,000 people
* 300,000 patients have renal flares
* Of these 300,000 patients 5% gets treated the first year.
* The number of patients treated increases by 50% each year.
* From 2010 on I use a constant treatment rate

Treatment cost and profit margin

* The treatment cost per year accounts up to 10,000 dollar per year.
* Profit margin is 25%, meaning someone else distributes the drug

Uncertainty factors :

* I use a discount rate of 15%, 7% for risk free rate + 8% risk rate

Outcome :

The net present value, meaning the present value of the profits to be made in the future with the lupus drug is 71 US dollars.

Always happy to mail the spreadsheet to people who are interested ... and always happy to hear comments on my assumptions ....

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