No. of Recommendations: 0

<< But how would the strategy have done compared to the Zambia market? Even if the average return is "quite low," if it beats the market, you've reached the goal of market-beating returns. Just saying that the average returns would be low doesn't say anything.

My question is, if you don't believe in the DOGS theories because the past performance doesn't prove anything, how do you choose stocks? It seems to me that most any method you might use to determine stocks with gains potential was derived by someone at some point and then tested from past data. If the back-testing indicated good results, you continue to use it. How is this different from DOGS?>>

Well said!

I respect John's arguments from a purely scientific standpoint. I know of no stock picking theory that has infallible predictive value because the vast majority of effort that goes into these analyses is based on history. History does not predict the future, but it sure gives us some good lessons from which we can draw reasonable conclusions about that future. The Dow strategies have been shown to be reliable over time. On a relative basis they have beaten the overall market, and (as Rayvt and others have mathematically demonstrated) they have done so with surprisingly less volatility. For this Fool's lifetime, that's proof enough for this pudding. I don't see the situation changing over the next five to 20 years, and in the marketplace that's all I need.

Suffice it to say John does not believe in the Dow strategies. That's fine. I do. That's fine, too. But while he's eating beans and franks in retirement because he has to, I'll do so because I just like them. <g>

I have said over and over and over: Ya makes your choices and ya lives with the results. And that, folks, is what investing in individual stocks is all about.


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