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Author: Rayvt Big gold star, 5000 posts Top Favorite Fools Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 254176  
Subject: Re: Cash alternatives in a retirement account Date: 2/24/2014 4:13 PM
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can you suggest a trend based market timing indicator that is at the same idiot like me level as the 5 out of eight day Mug nh/nl indicator.

From Roger Nusbaum:
"No one rule is always correct. they all give false signals. I don't really think it matters which trigger is used as no single trigger can be the best for all times but they can be effective which is the priority as I see it. Here effective is simply defined as avoiding the full brunt of a large decline.
"Aside from my belief in its effectiveness, the 200 DMA is simple to explain and understand."

From David E. Hultstrom"
"Simple is better, because simple is more robust."
"Simple beats complicated."

Personally, I use the 43 week Simple Moving Average of the S&P500 index (SPX). It's easy to compute, simple to understand, easy to get the data, both contemporary and historical.

To me, NH-NL has some issues: a) you depend on somebody doing the counting, b) do you exclude anything, such as ETFs, CEFs, Preferreds, ETNs, etc. or limit yourself to only pure stocks? If you exclude things, how do you know that the people doing the counting did it accurately?

My sell signal is 4 consecutive weeks of SPX being below the SMA. My buy signal is SPX above the SMA.
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