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Author: Hohum77 Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 1604  
Subject: CanRoy Update: Mar 2009 Date: 3/27/2009 10:53 PM
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Well, first Canroy update on this board and some Canroys are newsworthy
this month. Oil prices moved over $50/bbl the last couple of weeks and I paid less than $2/gal at the pump last week (not normal for California)

The data--
CanRoy	31-Oct	28-Nov	31-Dec	30-Jan	27-Feb	28-Mar 
PWE 17.86 14.58 11.12 11.30 8.83 10.30
HTE 9.80 10.30 8.77 8.62 4.97 3.98
BTE 17.30 15.17 11.95 11.64 9.14 12.65
PVX 6.37 4.94 4.36 4.54 3.01 3.93
ENT 1.12 0.90 0.52 0.47 0.50 0.68
PGH 11.21 8.97 7.62 8.31 5.64 6.03
AAV 6.15 5.16 4.21 4.23 2.30 2.58
PDS 10.74 8.04 8.39 4.97 2.76 2.96
ERF 26.71 23.19 19.58 20.66 16.83 17.35



Reduced my Canroy stake right before a Canroy bounce- Bah! :(
With my luck, chasing after them would have been a bigger mistake.


Okay, the news.
AAV - Bounced from $2-ish to $3-ish, (energy bounce).
Then dropped to $2.35-ish - They decided to "unCanroy" themselves.

The story?
They think their Montney play is big, and gives them a reason to toss the Canroy structure and pursue a new life as a growth O&G entity. Been following their news and unit price action fairly closely the last 10 days- they even got themselves a thread
http://boards.fool.com/Message.asp?mid=27531299&sort=who...

How do I price risk with AAV


PWE - They also benefited from the energy bounce. Started the month around $7.50 and closed yesterday at $11.54. The (Canadian) 23c/unit distribution was paid today- that's both good and bad. The distribution goes down next month, to (Canadian) 15c/unit.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Penn-West-Energy-Trust-prnews-...


PVX - Also participated in the energy bounce. Started the month at $2.50 and actually closed over $4 yesterday. Released their 2008 annual report, and Q4 was nasty (Payout was 95% and they had already cut to 9c/unit). Pekisko seems important to them. Spending a sizable portion of 2009 Capital budget on the area. Maybe its the success of the initial wells or perhaps they have additional
data. Like Montney, another Northwest Alberta prospect.


PGH - Not as big a bounce- ~25% from the start of the month.
Distribution at (Canadian) 10c/unit. Can they maintain it?
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