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Author: laopera Big red star, 1000 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 221  
Subject: Cassandra Crossing Date: 9/23/1998 6:48 PM
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Hey, just because the last two people who posted here were named Cassandra doesn't mean we of lesser names have to abandon this board...

Wall Streeters, hmmm....

About a month ago, a table of Fools sat down and tried to predict where the Dow would be at Christmas. Here was the count:

irisand: 7000
LeahinLA: 8300
JJinLA: 8900
yours truly: 7983

And, of course, the Cheeze begged off of predictions, but did predict that it would be "somewhere between 20% up or 20% down. To be fair to Cheeze and all those who think it unFoolish to look at the short term, let's put him on the record between 6387-9579 range.

I posed this obnoxious Rukyserian inquiry to our local sphinxes because I felt reasonably certain that for six months at least the market would crawl perfectly sideways, churning but not burning anywhere, because there would be less new money entering to drive up prices until some time in the future when general investors could determine the effects of the precipitous and all encompassing correction. I also thought foreign money would no longer view the US market as a safe haven, and a lot of it would return to its country of origin anyway, and similarly not re-enter until an adequate wait-and-see period had passed.

This simple view may not possess the byzantine rubric of the Elliot Wave Theory, but it does invest a certain degree of faith in herd-like behavior, which is what all those looneytoons on the Communion of Bears board are trying to quantify...

Any other takes? I now think we're probably headed for a slightly softer landing than I had guessed, and that LeahinLA is going to win whatever banal prize we LA Fools can think of...but in general, I still believe that for the Dow and for most stocks advances from early September to Christmas will be minimal, if there are even advances at all.

laopera

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