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Author: Lokicious Big gold star, 5000 posts Feste Award Nominee! Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 35363  
Subject: Re: Forecasting the Fed's Next Move Date: 5/30/2002 11:52 AM
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Charlie,

I'm not being contrarian, I just think sometimes common sense makes more sense than what market game players are anticipating. My expectation is that the Fed will raise rates at some point in the not too distant future (6 months, 1 year, 2 years), but clearly not now. I just found using futures to predict a 12% chance of an increase to be silly. I can use common sense to predict with almost 100% certainty that there won't be a June increase. Beyond that, forget it.

I will predict that there is a sufficient chance that CD rates at my credit union will go down next week that I'm going to the bank tomorrow to lock in current rate with May paycheck instead of waiting till the lines are shorter mid week.
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