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Author: intercst Big funky green star, 20000 posts Top Favorite Fools Top Recommended Fools Feste Award Nominee! Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 800650  
Subject: Re: Safe Withdrawal Calculator Date: 2/12/2000 1:26 PM
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CindyC72 asks,

I have added the "Retire Early Safe Withdrawal Calculator" to my arsenal of planning weapons in the journey towards retiring early. I do have a quick question to make sure that I am looking at the results it is giving me in the proper way.

Right now I have the payout set for the maximum, 50 years. When I plug in the other variables, I have decided that anything with a survivability factor of over 90% for 50 years is acceptable.

Am I being over-optimistic on this?


As long as you understand that you have a 10% chance (based on historical calculations) of running out of money, there's no problem with deciding to accept that risk.

As I wrote in an earlier post, "While I waited until I could live on a 4% withdrawal, if I really hated my job I wouldn't wait until I'd saved enough to reach the "100% safe" withdrawal rate. I'd be willing to use the "90% safe" number to get out earlier. However, I wouldn't be willing to go the "80% safe" or the "70% safe" withdrawal rate to retire early. That's just too risky for me.


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