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Author: jmlerche Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 480  
Subject: Citron Research Calls DDD Bubble Date: 2/14/2013 2:51 PM
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First - I am not invested in this stock. Yes, I wish I hadn't listened to a friend of mine in the printing business that said he didn't see this going anywhere when it was recommended. He was wrong.

Now, Citron Research calls this the bubble stock of the year:

http://www.citronresearch.com/

Is the Citron article and attention a game changer?

Thank you.
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Author: RaptorD2 Big gold star, 5000 posts Top Favorite Fools Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 179 of 480
Subject: Re: Citron Research Calls DDD Bubble Date: 2/14/2013 4:54 PM
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No, it's not a game changer at all. It does, however, bring to print the thoughts of many DDD investors.

• 3D printing is for real; it may well change the face of manufacturing. That is the game changer.
• DDD is a good, healthy company, seems to be well run and for a serial acquirer of other companies, seems to be doing a very good job of integrating acquisitions.
• The P/E for DDD stands at 90+, very high for any company.
• Assuming continuing trends, the company will grow into its P/E while profits increase (requiring the price to level out.)
• Owning the stock has a definite risk priced at these levels.
• Many current owners of DDD have doubled or tripled their original investment and can afford to wait even if the price retreats some. (That doesn't necessarily mean they should hold on, just that they can.)
• Any investor who's truly interested in DDD hopefully knows all of these things. They aren't secrets.

Personally, I would probably not buy DDD or SSYS right now. But I am very happy that I own them right now, and have even tasted XONE at its public inception.

The trouble with investing in truly great companies (regardless of your opinion of DDD) is this: The price always seems too high. Unfortunately, it most often *is* too high. But you can never benefit from the success of an apple if you never pay up to take a bite, pun intended. Yes, I own that high priced fruit too. :)

Man does not live by P/E alone. But without proper care, yes, he can die from it.

Dan

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Author: RaptorD2 Big gold star, 5000 posts Top Favorite Fools Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 180 of 480
Subject: Re: Citron Research Calls DDD Bubble Date: 2/14/2013 5:00 PM
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I just noticed the next article in your link

Intuitive Surgical — Angel with Broken Wings?

Guess what. Yep, I own that puppy too.

Maybe Citron got hold of my portfolios and is planning to tear it apart. Now I'm really scared. :)

Dan

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Author: jmlerche Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 181 of 480
Subject: Re: Citron Research Calls DDD Bubble Date: 2/14/2013 7:49 PM
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Thanks Dan :) I've been a casual observer of Citron for about a year now, you can sign up for 'alerts' on their website. It's interesting to see the price action on some securities when they release their articles.

Anyway - DDD is one of my 'shoulda coulda woulda' stocks. I've been amazed at how fast it's gone up and everytime I think it's to expensive it just keeps running. I'm sitting back to watch this one out (six months from now maybe i'll regret it, lol).

Good luck to you and thanks for your thoughtful response.

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Author: RaptorD2 Big gold star, 5000 posts Top Favorite Fools Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 182 of 480
Subject: Re: Citron Research Calls DDD Bubble Date: 2/14/2013 11:08 PM
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We should never regret the ones that got away, im, but try to learn from them. Actually, Apple has long been my #1 WouldaCouldaShoulda and when I finally bit the bullet, they missed guidance. That's what you get for chasing a good stock at a bad price.

When several w/c/s's happen in a row, I always remind myself that it's a lot more productive to make sure I have not picked any big losers than it is to hit every big winner. It's like baseball. You just have to win more than you lose and you're winning. Not that a couple of winning longshots can't help of course, but it's still more important to miss the big losers. I think even I can manage that most of the time, ha.

Dan

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Author: markusala100 Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 183 of 480
Subject: Re: Citron Research Calls DDD Bubble Date: 2/15/2013 8:41 AM
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I have noticed that severe negative articles seem to appear around the time of options expirations (feb16). No new news here as commented, but perhaps timing issues? There are an awful lot of shorts ou there as measured as a percentage of float. Perhaps also with the concern of the impact of the stock split? Any "conspiracy theorists" out there?

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Author: QuarkHadron Two stars, 250 posts CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 184 of 480
Subject: Re: Citron Research Calls DDD Bubble Date: 2/15/2013 10:09 AM
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What I've noticed in these short-seller articles is the misuse of buzz words as the basis for the articles. As I've said before the 'assumptions' that are used as the foundation for an analysis affect the validity of the supporting statements that then follow. If one accepts the invalid assumption, then one must accept the supporting statements. So, the analysis may 'seem' valid, but since the foundation isn't solid, the rest can't be solid.

For example, in earlier articles the foundational premise was 'organic growth.' Applying that measure to a well established company that is also in a well established (mature) market may be reasonable. Applying that measure to a growth company in a market that is young and immature may be much less valid. In immature markets, growth through acquisition is normal - and actually important to establish the company's market share and stay ahead of competitors. (The acquisitions do indeed warrant watching to be sure they contribute to revenue, but revenue is revenue for growing companies - organic or not.)

In this latest article, the emotional trigger word is 'bubble.' I don't think the concept conveyed by 'bubble' is valid for a single stock. I remember the dotcom 'bubble.' It wasn't one company. It was many, many companies - mostly new startups. And yes, people were throwing money at all of them. I think it takes a far stretch of the imagination to apply 'bubble' to 4 or 5 stocks, and an even greater stretch to apply 'bubble' to only one.

Has DDD run up significantly? Yes. That is, to me, a valid reason to watch the stocks performance. But, because of that, I expect pull backs and consolidation. Happens to all stocks. Nothing new here. It is a concern if you are a short-term trader. Far less concern if you are a long-term investor. It is important to know which you are.

Are many years of future growth factored into the price? Yes. But this also is normal. All prices reflect expectations for future growth. If they didn't, P/E would always be 1. It is the 'potential' for growth (which is always ignored in these short-attacks) that drive P/E's above 1. Well established companies in mature markets (where there are other well established companies for competition and the potential for capturing a significantly larger share of the market is small)should not normally command a high P/E - their potential for significant growth isn't normally there.

3d printing is a very immature market. That it has been around a long time doesn't make much difference - if the market is yet to be defined and the potential is just now being realized, it doesn't matter how long it took to get to this point. That's history. Investors are concerned with the future. The few companies poised to exploit that potential are indeed worthwhile investments. No, that doesn't mean it doesn't come with risk. But the 'potential return' must be weighed against the 'potential risk.' And that is something each investor must do for themselves.

If your risk tolerance isn't up to dealing with these swings, then you probably shouldn't be investing in these types of stocks. That isn't a poor reflection on you - it is just the way the world works. Some situations warrant more conservative investment approaches. If, on the other hand, you can tolerate these swings (financially and emotionally) - and are personally confident in the potential returns, then these types of stocks are good investments for you.

I emphasize 'personally' because, as can be seen by these types of articles, if you are going to rely only on 'recommendations' from others you are going to get some that say 'buy' and some that say 'sell.' You'll be bouncing in and out frequently - and that is market timing and 'trading,' not investing.

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Author: Clueless1054 One star, 50 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 185 of 480
Subject: Re: Citron Research Calls DDD Bubble Date: 2/15/2013 1:31 PM
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Hello, everyone. Newbie investor and first-time poster here. I've never used a brokerage before and have only invested in my 401-K at work, so I have much to learn and little time in which to do it.

To prove just how financially uneducated I am, my first Motley Fool-recommended stock purchase was DDD. I bought at $66.59, not realizing just how overpriced the stock probably is. Ouch. At least I was cautious and only purchased 30 shares. Being a financial "babe in the woods," I have to ask the experts here. Do you think people are manipulating the DDD stock price so that they can buy at a lower price right before it splits? Does that even make any sense?

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Author: QuarkHadron Two stars, 250 posts CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 186 of 480
Subject: Re: Citron Research Calls DDD Bubble Date: 2/15/2013 2:17 PM
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Welcome Cluless1054. I think that is a great first post introduction and question.

Be sure you read through this (13 Steps to Investing Foolishly):

http://www.fool.com/how-to-invest/thirteen-steps/index.aspx

I'd suggest paying particular attention to the concept of 'investing' vs. 'trading' and also 'diversification.'

That you have a 401-k at work helps provide some diversification right there, so that is a good thing.

As to stock price manipulation... Yes, it certainly seems some folks are having a pretty easy time of driving down prices. Some pretty skittish 'investors' out there apparently. :)

I suspect the motivation, however, is to make money shorting stocks though. Once they've proven successful at easily scaring some folks into selling, I can't imagine giving up on that kind of manipulation.

To avoid being one of those skittish investors, start by learning all you can about yourself as it relates to 'risk tolerance.' Search the term and understand it - will be well worth the effort. Understanding your personal risk tolerance, the factors that influence risk, and how to invest in a way that matches your personal risk tolerance will help you sleep at night while still being a successful investor.

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Author: Clueless1054 One star, 50 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 187 of 480
Subject: Re: Citron Research Calls DDD Bubble Date: 2/15/2013 2:38 PM
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Thanks so much for the reply and advice. I need to do a lot of reading because investing is a whole new world. (I even tried to read a little bit about options and shorting and puts, etc., but that is way over my head at this point and that's probably a VERY GOOD THING for me.)

I do have a quick question. I would love to add some core stocks to my portfolio, but they all seem to be trading at their 52-week highs. My guess is that I need to wait it out until the bubble bursts? I know I'm green, but some of these stock prices strike me as totally outrageous ($700 for a share of Priceline, really?)

I'd appreciate any suggestions. I'm really happy to have finally found this place.

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Author: GeoffroyD Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 188 of 480
Subject: Re: Citron Research Calls DDD Bubble Date: 2/15/2013 9:52 PM
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3D Systems Corporation (NYSE:DDD) announced today that its Board of Directors has declared a three-for-two split of the company's common stock in the nature of a 50% stock dividend. On February 22, 2013, each stockholder of record at the close of business on February 15, 2013 will receive one additional share for every two shares held on the record date. In lieu of fractional shares, shareholders will receive a cash payment based on the closing market price of DDD stock on the record date. Trading is expected to begin on a split-adjusted basis on February 25, 2013.

I was wondering when the market opens tuesday if buying a put on DDD would be a good move, expecting a sell off since the share holders of record on friday would now be guaranteed to receive their additional shares. Any thoughts?

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Author: jmlerche Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 189 of 480
Subject: Re: Citron Research Calls DDD Bubble Date: 2/15/2013 11:53 PM
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If you're new to the stock market I'd sit this one out. Puts seem very expensive to me right now. I feel that any play on this stock at this point is a gamble, especially if you're short term and using options.

There are always other stocks to pick so look for a base hit somewhere else rather than a home run here. JMO.

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Author: wadigo Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 190 of 480
Subject: Re: Citron Research Calls DDD Bubble Date: 2/16/2013 12:39 AM
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On February 22, 2013, each stockholder of record at the close of business on February 15, 2013 will receive ...yada yada...


I am probably wrong... but doesn't it take 3 days to clear, before a sale/purchase is considered 'holder of record'?
So, if so, then one would have needed to buy last Wednesday, to reap the benefits of split?
I have been out of the loop for so long I'm not sure anymore.

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Author: RaptorD2 Big gold star, 5000 posts Top Favorite Fools Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 191 of 480
Subject: Re: Citron Research Calls DDD Bubble Date: 2/16/2013 12:46 AM
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I'd appreciate any suggestions. I'm really happy to have finally found this place.

Well, welcome. You asked for it, so ... "Incoming! Everybody hit the deck!"

Here's some quick advice, which is worth exactly what you pay for it (although, if you pay me $500, I'll improve my advice a bit. :)

• DO NOT get in a hurry to get invested. Take your time. Quick action can cause quick losses.
• The market is rather expensive now on most scales of measure.
• If you ever do want to invest a wad quickly, do so in one or more index funds.
• Many here scour the markets constantly for good bargains, since that's where we seem to make the best money. There are very view, IMO, to be had. The low-hanging fruit is gone.

If I were new to directing my own funds, here's what I would do (and I wish someone would have told me before I learned lessons the hard way!):

• Pick 5-30 companies (number really doesn't matter) that you like--either from experience or from working in the industry, etc.
• Watch those companies for 30 days minimum.
• Read all news you can find. Look at magazine articles on them. Google them.
• When you find companies that you like not only as a customer, etc., but also as an investment, then begin to read, calculate and learn about valuation. It should be illegal to invest before this stage.
• MOST OF ALL: TAKE NOTES ON EVERYTHING YOU DO AND MOST OF WHAT YOU THINK.

If you can do these few simple things, I can not guarantee you success. But I can guarantee that any losses will be much less than if you invest in some stock rockets on Monday. Eventually, I'll bet you will even win. I did tell you what winning means, right?

Patience, GrassHopper! Good luck. Oops, I forgot. For the first 5-10 years, luck is very important. After that, it's the Yogi saying, "The harder I work, the luckier I get." And if you find a home run like a new DDD, consider yourself very lucky indeed. They don't come down the pike very often. And if you hit that homer, I'm sorry, but it was pure luck. (Well, good luck and my advice.) :)

Dan

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Author: GeoffroyD Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 192 of 480
Subject: Re: Citron Research Calls DDD Bubble Date: 2/16/2013 5:15 PM
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I bought shares of DDD on 02/15/13 date of record expecting to receive the additional shares based on the 3/2 stock split. Based on what you said I bought the shares too late to be eligible to receive the 3/2 split shares?

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Author: Odys3 Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 204 of 480
Subject: Re: Citron Research Calls DDD Bubble Date: 2/19/2013 4:18 PM
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As far as I know you have done well. If you kept your shares till market close last Friday, you should receive your extra shares - one extra share for every two you held till end of 22nd February 2013. It doesn't mean that the total value of your holding will go up. You will find more explanation at:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stock_split

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