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Author: WendyBG Big gold star, 5000 posts Top Favorite Fools Top Recommended Fools Feste Award Winner! Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 457102  
Subject: Climate change & conflict Date: 9/4/2013 12:36 PM
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http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/01/opinion/sunday/weather-and...


Weather and Violence
By MARSHALL BURKE, SOLOMON HSIANG and EDWARD MIGUEL
New York Times: August 30, 2013

...

Whether their focus is on small-scale interpersonal aggression or large-scale political instability, low-income or high-income societies, the year 10,000 B.C. or the present day, the overall conclusion is the same: episodes of extreme climate make people more violent toward one another. ...

What explains the strong link between climate and conflict? Different mechanisms are most likely operating in different settings, but the two most important factors appear to be aggression and scarcity. The aggression factor is intuitively easy to understand (summer in the city), and it probably underlies the finding that anomalously hot months have significantly higher crime rates in cities in the United States. As for scarcity, the logic is only slightly more complex. In low-income countries largely dependent on agriculture — like those in much of sub-Saharan Africa and parts of Asia and Latin America — when the rains fail and temperatures scorch, crops wilt and die. This leaves many people dangerously close to the edge of survival, which can lead to social strife and even civil war. ...

Our results imply that if nothing changes, this rise in temperature could amplify the rate of group conflicts like civil wars by an astonishing 50 percent in many parts of the world — a frightening possibility for a planet already awash in conflict. ...
[end quote]

Billions of people live in areas that will be dramatically harmed by global warming.

With an interconnected world, the macroeconomic impact could be large, even if it is gradual.

Wendy
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Author: Dikka Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 433122 of 457102
Subject: Re: Climate change & conflict Date: 9/4/2013 3:36 PM
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The authors may or may not be proven right in regard to their predictions, but I don't agree that we presently have "a planet already awash in conflict."

Worldwide, deaths caused directly by war-related violence in the new century have averaged about 55,000 per year, just over half of what they were in the 1990s (100,000 a year), a third of what they were during the Cold War (180,000 a year from 1950 to 1989), and a hundredth of what they were in World War II. If you factor in the growing global population, which has nearly quadrupled in the last century, the decrease is even sharper. Far from being an age of killer anarchy, the 20 years since the Cold War ended have been an era of rapid progress toward peace.

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/08/15/think_again...

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Author: bjchip Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 433123 of 457102
Subject: Re: Climate change & conflict Date: 9/4/2013 4:12 PM
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*No society is more than 3 meals away from revolution* - is a phrase that apparently goes back to Rome or further.

We may be working towards peace, but changes in climate will undermine everything in our society, including the peace.

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Author: soycapital Big red star, 1000 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 433128 of 457102
Subject: Re: Climate change & conflict Date: 9/4/2013 5:30 PM
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<Our results imply that if nothing changes, this rise in temperature could amplify the rate of group conflicts like civil wars by an astonishing 50 percent in many parts of the world — a frightening possibility for a planet already awash in conflict. ... [end quote]>

Interesting post with possible macro impact but I emphatically question a group of scientists or whoever predicting what the weather is going to be like in ____ number of years. I remember growing up reading in magazines and such about how the earth was going to freeze over. It was a common subject to discuss. I simply put this kind of thing in the "too hard pile". No amount of worrying I do is going to have any effect one way or the other.

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Author: whafa Big funky green star, 20000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 433129 of 457102
Subject: Re: Climate change & conflict Date: 9/4/2013 5:36 PM
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Interesting post with possible macro impact but I emphatically question a group of scientists or whoever predicting what the weather is going to be like in ____ number of years. I remember growing up reading in magazines and such about how the earth was going to freeze over. It was a common subject to discuss. I simply put this kind of thing in the "too hard pile". No amount of worrying I do is going to have any effect one way or the other.


I agree that it's pointless to worry about, but the actions of politicians and voters can have profound implications on your investment outcomes. So while there may be no point in arguing over whether the prevailing science will prove correct, major money can be made or lost on the laws we pass (or fail to pass) in reaction.

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Author: desertdaveataol Big funky green star, 20000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 433134 of 457102
Subject: Re: Climate change & conflict Date: 9/4/2013 6:49 PM
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Far from being an age of killer anarchy, the 20 years since the Cold War ended have been an era of rapid progress toward peace.

Yeah! An everybody knows that everybody wants peace (cough)on their terms(cough)!

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Author: kf6pfk Two stars, 250 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 433137 of 457102
Subject: Re: Climate change & conflict Date: 9/4/2013 7:08 PM
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A note to myself...

Egyptian unrest
February 26, 2011 at 6:16pm
Thinking about the social unrest in Egypt.

According to the CIA Factbook...

Population 1960: 27.8 million
Population 2008: 81.7 million
Current population growth rate: 2% per annum (a 35-year doubling rate)
Population in 2046 after another doubling: 164 million
Average number of children per woman 3
Rainfall average over whole country: ~ 2 inches per year
Highest rainfall region: Alexandria, 7.9 inches per year
Arable land (almost entirely in the Nile Valley): 3%
Arable land per capita: 0.04 Ha (400 m2)
Arable land per capita in 2043: 0.02 Ha
Food imports: 40% of requirements
Grain imports: 60% of requirements
Net oil exports: Began falling in 1997, went negative briefly in 2007
Oil production peaked in 1996
Cost of oil rising steeply
Cost of oil and food tightly linked.

Over population and to few natural resources is the real cause of Egypt's unrest. (Not easily fixable)


People respond to stress on a J curve. A little stress is okay, in fact it's usually good for you. But there is a point where it takes over and causes an uncontrollable cascading of events. In this case I hadn't included climate change as it was to hard to quantify. But that doesn't mean it doesn't have an effect.

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Author: bjchip Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 433151 of 457102
Subject: Re: Climate change & conflict Date: 9/4/2013 9:42 PM
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I remember growing up reading in magazines and such about how the earth was going to freeze over.

You have a remarkable memory. In only one year did the papers showing global cooling outnumber those showing global warming. That year was 1971. The popular myth you just repeated is a talking point encouraged by the professional "merchants of doubt" at CEI.

The things you can do about this are voting against politicians who are denying that it is happening, and working locally to reduce your energy footprint. You can indeed "not worry" about it, we can do only what we can do. I am not permitting flawed and inaccurate reasoning relating to climate change, to be dumped into this forum unchallenged.

It is a contentious issue. I suggest that if you wish to challenge the 97% of scientists about it, the climate change board is open. Arguing here is not productive for METAR.

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Author: rubberthinking Big funky green star, 20000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 433156 of 457102
Subject: Re: Climate change & conflict Date: 9/4/2013 11:35 PM
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Whether their focus is on small-scale interpersonal aggression or large-scale political instability, low-income or high-income societies, the year 10,000 B.C. or the present day, the overall conclusion is the same: episodes of extreme climate make people more violent toward one another. ...

Wendy,

Are the authors leaving out central Europe? WW I and WW II seem a little more violent that normal.

Dave

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Author: desertdaveataol Big funky green star, 20000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 433174 of 457102
Subject: Re: Climate change & conflict Date: 9/5/2013 11:55 AM
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Yada yada yada, yammer yamer so on and so forth

It is a contentious issue. I suggest that if you wish to challenge the 97% of scientists about it, the climate change board is open. Arguing here is not productive for METAR.


Great move! Give your side and then suggest your opponent should respond to you somewhere else. Nothing to hide?

OH! And don't mess up METAR by responding to me here on METAR.

Desert (The world's greatest excuse pales in the face of mediocre performance.) Dave
-- (Quotation, with attribution, permitted and encouraged.)

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Author: brucedoe Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 433231 of 457102
Subject: Re: Climate change & conflict Date: 9/6/2013 3:36 AM
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The forecast of global cooling came about in the early 1970s because of an increase of particulates and aerosols in the air. For example an increase of sulfur dioxide aerosols in the air has an overall cooling effect because of photochemical conversion to sulfuric acid (acid rain). But a reduction of sulfur emissions was enacted in the U.S. in the 1980s that has been very successful (http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/7/3663/2007/acp-7-3663-2007.h...). The Clean Air Act has also been successful after it was given teeth in the late 1970s.

An increase in global volcanism, however, could result in a global cooling by increasing the amount of particulates and aerosols in the atmosphere, but these effects from volcanic explosions last only a few years at most. You would have to have continuous volcanic explosions.

But renewed predictions are related to the sunspot cycle by a couple of Russian scientists which probably will have little effect.

You might find the following history of global temature change to be of interest: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_climate_change_scien...

brucedoe

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Author: WendyBG Big gold star, 5000 posts Top Favorite Fools Top Recommended Fools Feste Award Winner! Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 433290 of 457102
Subject: Re: Climate change & conflict Date: 9/6/2013 1:57 PM
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<Are the authors leaving out central Europe? WW I and WW II seem a little more violent that normal.>

They included WW I and WW II. Jared Diamond did, also, in his anaylsis in "The World Until Yesterday."

Despite the horrific death tolls in WW 1 and WW 2, the worst casualties were military and in a limited theater. There were horrible civilian casualties, also, but the population was so large that the total was about 2%. Also the time period of the destruction was limited to about 10 years of the 20th century and large sections of the world were not involved.

In non-state societies (which was the whole world until fairly recently), where constant tribal warfare, revenge killing cycles, infanticide and murder of non-producing elders are the norm, annual death tolls can be 5%-10% continuously.

Wendy

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Author: desertdaveataol Big funky green star, 20000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 433387 of 457102
Subject: Re: Climate change & conflict Date: 9/8/2013 2:46 AM
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It is a contentious issue. I suggest that if you wish to challenge the 60% of scientists about it, the climate change board is open. Arguing here is not productive for METAR.

Record return of Arctic ice cap as it grows by 60% in a year with top scientists warning of global COOLING

Almost a million more square miles of ocean covered with ice than in 2012

BBC reported in 2007 global warming would leave Arctic ice-free in summer by 2013

Publication of UN climate change report suggesting global warming caused by humans pushed back to later this month

A chilly Arctic summer has left nearly a million more square miles of ocean covered with ice than at the same time last year – an increase of 60 per cent.

The rebound from 2012’s record low comes six years after the BBC reported that global warming would leave the Arctic ice-free in summer by 2013.

Instead, days before the annual autumn re-freeze is due to begin, an unbroken ice sheet more than half the size of Europe already stretches from the Canadian islands to Russia’s northern shores.

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2415191/Global-cooli...

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Author: jaagu Big gold star, 5000 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 433413 of 457102
Subject: Re: Climate change & conflict Date: 9/8/2013 12:04 PM
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I wonder why desertdave changed the words submitted by bjchip.

bjchip wrote: "I suggest that if you wish to challenge the 97% of scientists about it, the climate change board is open."

desertdave wrote: "I suggest that if you wish to challenge the 60% of scientists about it, the climate change board is open."

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Author: desertdaveataol Big funky green star, 20000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 433419 of 457102
Subject: Re: Climate change & conflict Date: 9/8/2013 2:25 PM
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I wonder why desertdave changed the words submitted by bjchip.

bjchip wrote: "I suggest that if you wish to challenge the 97% of scientists about it, the climate change board is open."

desertdave wrote: "I suggest that if you wish to challenge the 60% of scientists about it, the climate change board is open."

Er... I thought it was pretty obvious, but thanks for the paranoia. It's nice to know I'm suspected of nefarious deeds! :-)
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2415191/Global-cooli...

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Author: jaagu Big gold star, 5000 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 433420 of 457102
Subject: Re: Climate change & conflict Date: 9/8/2013 2:38 PM
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Not suspected but an actual nefarious deed. You made it appear as though bjchip wrote 60% when he actually wrote 97%.

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Author: desertdaveataol Big funky green star, 20000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 433428 of 457102
Subject: Re: Climate change & conflict Date: 9/8/2013 6:54 PM
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Not suspected but an actual nefarious deed. You made it appear as though bjchip wrote 60% when he actually wrote 97%.

Not to the non-paranoid who were paying attention.

Desert (The world's greatest excuse pales in the face of mediocre performance.) Dave
-- (Quotation, with attribution, permitted and encouraged.)

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2415191/Global-cooli...

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Author: tedhimself Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 433430 of 457102
Subject: Re: Climate change & conflict Date: 9/8/2013 7:57 PM
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<desertdave wrote: "I suggest that if you wish to challenge the 60% of scientists about >it, the climate change board is open."

Daily Mail<<And now it's global COOLING! Record return of Arctic ice cap as it grows by 60% in a year>>

Ummm... One talks about 60% of scientists the other about 60% os the ice cap.

???

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Author: bjchip Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 433436 of 457102
Subject: Re: Climate change & conflict Date: 9/8/2013 9:36 PM
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This will be brief. I can't let the errors stand but I won't make detail.

http://www.skepticalscience.com/rebutting-new-tcp-myths-andr...

97% if you please.

---------


http://psc.apl.washington.edu/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/s...

There is more to this than a 1 dimensional sheet, and the ice is by no means back to what it was. It will of course gain more and faster, if it is starting from less.

-----------

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7139797.stm

Unfortunately this was not a "prediction" it was a statement of possibility...

Their latest modelling studies indicate northern polar waters could be ice-free in summers within just 5-6 years.

He took another crack at it in 2011.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-13002706

Because unlike WUWT, the science continues to try to improve.

-----------

The Daily Mail has a "conservative" agenda. Means more in Britain than it does here. Their headline ...it's global COOLING!... is very very seriously wrong.

http://www.skepticalscience.com/Global-Warming-is-Accelerati...

A bonus link.

http://www.skepticalscience.com/grand-solar-minimum-barely-d...

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Author: desertdaveataol Big funky green star, 20000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 433446 of 457102
Subject: Re: Climate change & conflict Date: 9/9/2013 3:05 AM
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Ummm... One talks about 60% of scientists the other about 60% os the ice cap.

And your point is that 60% is popular nowadays?

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Author: desertdaveataol Big funky green star, 20000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 433448 of 457102
Subject: Re: Climate change & conflict Date: 9/9/2013 3:15 AM
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This will be brief.

You call that brief?

The Man made Global Warming alarmests have an agenda.

So now we have two (brief) agendas.

Say, in all your reading didn't you come across some news stories about how it's been cooling over the past few years?

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Author: bjchip Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 433456 of 457102
Subject: Re: Climate change & conflict Date: 9/9/2013 8:22 AM
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:-) yes, for me that was brief

News stories about cooling, yes. Science that demonstrated it on the global scale, no.

I do see both in the news, but not in the science.

For instance, I am aware of a "cool summer" in the USA. I am also aware of the warmest winter in recorded history for New Zealand, which is to say for a good chunk of the South Pacific.

Not sure it could be said that I have an "agenda". I have a very long time horizon... it profits me in no way to see the world warming, or to scare people about warming. There are many many things wrong in the world and scaring people about warming doesn't make any of them better or easier to deal with.

Consider my avowed distaste for the Fed, the nature of our monetary system and the unsustainability of our debt system. Warming is a major distraction from that. I don't WANT to have to argue warming, but...

The problem is that warming, that is very very likely to be something that we influence and have influenced a lot, is a long-term existential threat to our civilization.

The risk-benefit matrix is very heavily loaded towards the "do something about this now" box, and there are people who profit from our NOT doing something now who are spending heavily on organizations that have a long history of lying and perverting the science. The "Merchants of Doubt".

So there are a lot of misleading stories being promoted.

I do not perceive myself to have any choice, it is a moral responsibility. Not really an "agenda" unless keeping faith with my kids is considered an agenda.

"We do not inherit the earth from our ancestors, we borrow it from our children".

...and METAR is not an easy place for these thoughts.

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Author: tim443 Big funky green star, 20000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 433457 of 457102
Subject: Re: Climate change & conflict Date: 9/9/2013 8:35 AM
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I have a very long time horizon... it profits me in no way to see the world warming, or to scare people about warming.

...

I do not perceive myself to have any choice, it is a moral responsibility. Not really an "agenda" unless keeping faith with my kids is considered an agenda.

"We do not inherit the earth from our ancestors, we borrow it from our children".

...and METAR is not an easy place for these thoughts.



BJ

You and I cannot change the direction... besides I'm from one of the nations that would benefit from a bit of warming. }};-D

DD comes from a place where it is too late they have already fried the tops of their heads.

Wouldn't it be nice if both of you would agree to take the subject elsewhere? Having said that I do enjoy your posts on the subject and should you move want to know where you go with it.


**** absolutely not signed ****

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Author: soycapital Big red star, 1000 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 433487 of 457102
Subject: Re: Climate change & conflict Date: 9/9/2013 1:44 PM
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<I do enjoy your posts on the subject and should you move want to know where you go with it. >



Sorry, you can only recommend a post to the Best of once.

>absolutely have kept my mouth shut<

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Author: jaagu Big gold star, 5000 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 433488 of 457102
Subject: Re: Climate change & conflict Date: 9/9/2013 1:53 PM
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bjchip,

I do enjoy your efforts to bring science (not make believe stories) to METAR regarding climate change. You and I may disagree on nuclear power, but regarding climate change we are in agreement.

IMO climate change and energy are important METAR issues.

jaagu

P.S. - Merchants of Doubt = EXXON, Koch Brothers, etc. and their mouthpiece Rush L.

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Author: desertdaveataol Big funky green star, 20000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 433502 of 457102
Subject: Re: Climate change & conflict Date: 9/9/2013 7:21 PM
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I do not perceive myself to have any choice, it is a moral responsibility.

Ah, I see, it's your religion.

Far be it from me to stand between someone and their invisible friend.

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Author: soycapital Big red star, 1000 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 433518 of 457102
Subject: Re: Climate change & conflict Date: 9/9/2013 10:17 PM
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jaagu;
<but regarding climate change we are in agreement.>

Somehow I just knew that without you even sayin so......merchants of doubt

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