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Author: JohnEBgood Big gold star, 5000 posts Top Recommended Fools Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 1972450  
Subject: CNN: Romney won debate Date: 10/4/2012 3:25 AM
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Yup! A whopping 67% of the folks in this survey think so.

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/10/03/cnn-poll-rom...

And, CNN used its mighty resources to sample "430 adult Americans"
The margin of error was plus or minus 4.5% (I wonder how they arrive at that number)

Are they kidding?????

The sad thing is that people are depending upon CNN as a reliable source of news. Fox is for screwballs. Now I see that CNN is for the mathematically challenged.

Jack
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Author: PeterRabit Big funky green star, 20000 posts Top Recommended Fools Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 1820895 of 1972450
Subject: Re: CNN: Romney won debate Date: 10/4/2012 5:32 AM
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JEB The margin of error was plus or minus 4.5% (I wonder how they arrive at that number)

Assuming that the sample was selected randomly and the population size is large, the margin of error is a function of the number of persons polled. Most polls try to get about 1000 responses to get the MOE down to about 3%.

http://americanresearchgroup.com/moe.html

Peter

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Author: JohnEBgood Big gold star, 5000 posts Top Recommended Fools Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 1821014 of 1972450
Subject: Re: CNN: Romney won debate Date: 10/4/2012 10:50 AM
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Thank you for that information, Peter.

I played around with the tool, and I have a much better understanding of how they come up with the numbers. It seems to me that the greatest danger in this process would be faulty selection of the sample, rather than just the number of people contacted.

Some people, like myself, absolutely refuse to participate in polls. A long time ago, I decided that it's pretty stupid to give information to a stranger who just happens to call me on the phone.

Anyway, techniques aside, do you believe the results of this poll?

Jack

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Author: PeterRabit Big funky green star, 20000 posts Top Recommended Fools Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 1821024 of 1972450
Subject: Re: CNN: Romney won debate Date: 10/4/2012 11:10 AM
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the greatest danger in this process would be faulty selection of the sample, rather than just the number of people contacted.

I think this is why they seldom go much over 1000. Using the tool, I can see that polling 2000 persons would drive the MOE down to close to 2%. That seems worthwhile, but the other flaws (as you suggest) would remain, so the actually precision would not increase much.


Anyway, techniques aside, do you believe the results of this poll?

Well, yes, but they are measuring a very ephemeral phenomenon. I can say (as I did) "Romney won the debate" but I still know his ideas are BS. It is a throwaway judgement that has no effect on who I will vote for.


BTW, I hate robo calls but I always respond to the polls. A small show of support for Obama and the Virginia Dems.

Peter

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Author: 99lashes Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 1821034 of 1972450
Subject: Re: CNN: Romney won debate Date: 10/4/2012 11:26 AM
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It is a real bummer when everyone else sees a different scoreboard and you are still there staring blankly claiming everyone else is lying.

LOL

99

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Author: JohnEBgood Big gold star, 5000 posts Top Recommended Fools Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 1821084 of 1972450
Subject: Re: CNN: Romney won debate Date: 10/4/2012 12:27 PM
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It is a real bummer when everyone else sees a different scoreboard and you are still there staring blankly claiming everyone else is lying.

After looking at the matter carefully, I decided that the CNN poll is probably valid. Of course, I think that the people who responded were pretty stupid.

As far as LYING goes, Mr Romney gets the prize.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/04/opinion/an-unhelpful-presi...

Jack

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